[다음주 증시전망] Over 2,800 Kospi… Will I be able to withstand the year-end dividend loss?

Stock market KOSPI band 2,700~2,780 line forecast

Prepare for the risk of increased volatility due to year-end dividend payments

Some large-cap stocks may increase foreign buying after dividend decline

“Take strategic investment opportunities rather than change your investment position”

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This week, the KOSPI index set a monumental record, such as a massive inflow of investments into the stock market, breaking through the 2,800 line for the first time in history, with anticipation for the year-end dividend season. However, it is predominant to observe that the volatility of the stock market for next week may increase due to the schedule of a dividend decline on the 29th. Stock market experts predict that next week’s KOSPI index will move around the 2,700-2,780 line, which was slightly adjusted from this week’s high of 2,800, but advised that it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of an uptrend after the adjustment rather than changing the investment position to’sell’.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 26th, the KOSPI index on the 24th, the last trading day of this week, ended trading at 2,806.86, breaking the 2,800 line for the first time. The highest closing price set three days ago (2,778) was changed once more. During the week, it soared to 2,812, raising expectations for the year-end rally. It is analyzed that the stock market’s uptrend was driven by the buying trend of institutional investors who focused on investing in dividend stocks at the end. On the 24th, the institution net purchased 628.9 billion won in the securities market alone. Foreigners also made net purchases of 161.6 billion won, boosting the KOSPI’s rise.

Next week, the KOSPI index is expected to be at the 2,700-2,780 line, which is lower than the 2,800 line, which is the highest this week. NH Investment & Securities predicts that uncertainties related to dividends at the end of the year will have a major impact on the stock market, and forecast the KOSPI band next week to be 2,700-2,780. Noh-gil, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “It seems that the current KOSPI rise reflects a significant portion of the dividend-related expectations such as Samsung Electronics’ special year-end dividends. On the 29th, the dividend loss can also be large.” However, in this situation, he predicted that the strategy of increasing the weight of some large stocks after the dividend decline was also effective. Researcher Roh said, “There is a possibility that foreign investors’ spot supply and demand will be converted to net purchase after the dividend is reduced. This is expected to affect the improvement of the yield of large-cap stocks.” He cited semiconductors, rechargeable batteries, and healthcare as industries that are expected to net purchase in kind by foreign investors.

Korea Investment & Securities also expected the KOSPI to move sideways between 2,700 and 2,780. Researcher Kim Dae-joon said, “There will be no deviation from the mid- to long-term uptrend, but the seasonal peculiarities of the year-end, the fall of dividends coming on the 29th, and the burden of placing a 12-month forward PER of 13x will act as factors to blur the index direction.” It would be more advantageous to pay attention to the leading industries that will lead the market in the future rather than change to’sell’.” He then recommended paying attention to the economy-sensitive sector by paying attention to the corona 19 vaccine effect and the strong copper that reflects the economic recovery.

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Although the stock market will show a calm trend towards the end of the year, some advise that you should be careful about volatility caused by uncertainties from the US. In particular, there is an opinion that the situation in which President Trump requested amendment of the fifth fiscal stimulus package passed by the US Congress on the 21st could shake investment sentiment. The two parties in the United States passed an agenda including a cash payment of $600 per person seven months after they started discussing additional stimulus measures, but President Trump demanded that the content be revised by raising the scale to $2,000. The Democratic Party immediately accepted it and did not have a significant impact on the stock market, but if both sides do not respond with the passage of a larger stimulus in the near future, there is a great concern that it will worsen the two sentiment again. Ahn So-eun, a researcher at IBK Investment & Securities, said, “The vaccine-related expectations that led the stock market’s rise were offset by the spread of the variant Corona 19, and the expectations of the US stimulus measures that supported investment sentiment weakened as Trump put a brake on it.” It is expected that uncertainties from the US should also increase volatility in the domestic stock market.”

Meanwhile, on the 24th (local time) in the New York Stock Market, major indexes ended slightly while watching the US fiscal stimulus plan while the Brexit negotiations were concluded. On this day, the stock market closed early at 1pm on Christmas Eve. On the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones 30 Industrial Average closed at 30,199.87, up 70.04 points (0.23%) from the battlefield. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 index rose 13.05 points (0.35%) from the battlefield to 3,703.06, while the technology stock-oriented NASDAQ index rose 33.62 points (0.26%) to 12,804.73. Experts in New York’s stock market diagnosed that investors were watching the stimulus trend calmly towards the end of the year.

/ Reporter Kim Kyungmi [email protected]

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