“You look like 518”? China in Myanmar coup, why conversion smiles

About two months have passed since the coup in Myanmar on the 1st of last month, but the bloodshed is worsening. According to an announcement by the Myanmar human rights organization’Political Offender Support Association (AAPP)’, the coup killed 320 people as of the 25th, and about 3,000 people were detained.

The National Democratic Federation (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of General Aung San, Myanmar’s independent hero, won a major victory in the last general election, but the military denied this and declared a state of emergency after detaining her. Even in the 1990 general election, a long time ago, the Myanmar military disregarded the victory of the NLD and refused to take over. Currently, the military has professed to hand over the regime depending on the result of the re-election after a one-year emergency, but there is a high possibility that it will continue to lead the situation and continue to dominate the politics.

With the continuing democratization movement against the military dictatorship, Myanmar seemed to be opening the era of civil government for the first time in 50 years, following the transfer of civil government in 2011 and the results of general elections in 2015 and last year. However, the military is now trying to bring the clock back to the past.

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What was the background of the coup?

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In the background of the current situation in Myanmar lies a deep-seated mistrust between Suzy’s NLD and the military, which has been around for decades. The NLD, led by Suji, won the recent elections with a “revision of the undemocratic constitution,” acknowledging the military’s privileges. Overseas experts analyze that the increased sense of crisis inside the military led to a coup. Hitoshi Tanaka, director of the Japan Institute for International Strategic Studies, who arranged dialogue between Mrs. Suji and the military in the early 2000s, pointed out that “the military’s greatest concern is the loss of authority due to constitutional amendments.” If power is lost, there is a great anxiety about purging and personal safety.

The military alleges that there was a large-scale denial of the general election, and claims that the coup was conducted because the NLD did not respond to the request for investigation. However, an executive of a Myanmar ethnic minority party refuted, “Election is just a justification for a coup. The military has been looking for an opportunity to lottery since before.”

Director Tanaka said, “The military has been deeply involved in various profitable businesses through various companies, and there is a strong sense of resistance to losing such vested interests.” According to him, the military is also very dissatisfied with Susie’s acknowledgment that the Myanmar military has exercised excessive force on the Rohingya issue.

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Myanmar, China’s’One Belt, One Road’ Core Base

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Myanmar, facing a long border of 2200 km with China, is more than one of its many neighbors to China. This is because it is a key country necessary for the “One Belt, One Road,” which is the core of Xi Jinping’s foreign policy. Kyauk Phyu, the largest port adjacent to the Bay of Bengal, is a hub port that allows China to transport oil from the Middle East by land without going through the Malacca Strait, and an exit that allows entry into the Indian Ocean.

China has always been concerned that the Malacca Strait is often under the control of the United States, as pirates appear frequently and are affected by changes in the international situation. This is because if the US 7th Fleet closes the strait in an emergency, the energy supply route will be cut off. It goes without saying that China desperately needed a base port to confront the United States by bypassing the Malacca Strait.

Due to this geopolitical importance, China has long made special efforts to establish a pro-Chinese government in Myanmar. For example, it not only provided weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars, such as tanks and fighters, to the military, but the amount of trade continued to increase.

In particular, China invested a total of $2.5 billion in Chau Pew, a small fishing village in the past, to construct an oil pipeline and gas pipeline to Kunming, China around 2014. Through this, it aims to transport 22 million tons of crude oil and 12 billion ㎥ of natural gas per year. In 2017, it was decided to build a’China-Myanmar economic corridor’ with the goal of 2025 by constructing highways and railroads along the way through oil and gas pipelines. Regarding the’economic corridor’, President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar as the first overseas trip in January of last year and emphasized, “Let’s deepen a comprehensive cooperative partnership to create a community of fate.”

China has tried to maintain a good relationship with the NLD as well. After Suji took office as foreign minister in April 2016, it was China’s Wang Yi, the foreign minister who met for the first time. At the time, Director Wang Yi compared the bilateral relations to “Paukphaw” and said, “I came to inform the international community that China is a good friend and partner to Myanmar.” As a result, China is in a position to be considered as the guardianship and first friend of the Myanmar government, and Myanmar’s economy has become more dependent on the Chinese economy than ever before. However, since the emergence of democratization and Suzy, Myanmar has shown a more cautious attitude in the one-on-one project than in the military era.

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Endless coup’the rumor behind China’

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China has not officially expressed support for the Myanmar military. After the coup, the spokesman made a dry statement, saying, “I hope to resolve the conflict well and maintain political and social stability.” In the face of this situation, some interpretations say that countries that have been sanctioned are being criticized by emphasizing the existing position of’non-interference in internal affairs’ toward other countries.

However, two weeks before the coup, it became known that the chief of the king visited Myanmar and met Commander Min Aung Hlaing, who was the lead of the coup, and’the rumors behind China’ began to spread. There is no clear evidence that the military has contacted China in connection with the coup, but rumors have arisen that, centering on social media, China has dispatched experts to support the suppression of protests and censor the Internet to the back of the Myanmar military.

As a result, anti-Chinese sentiment among citizens intensified. There was a boycott of Chinese products, and last week protesters burned dozens of Chinese factories in Yangon, the first city of Myanmar. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, it is reported that Korean companies that have entered the region are also worried about the fire. Regarding’the rumors behind China’, the Chinese side refuted on the 18th as “the purpose of separating the relationship between China and Myanmar,” and has been working on the evolution of the situation.

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China and Myanmar, I don’t care about the incident… The smile of conversion inside?

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China, as Myanmar, which has developed into a special political relationship, has been on the lookout for a Western-style politics of democratization since 2015, and it must have been vigilant. If a country’s political system undergoes major changes, it will have an impact on neighboring countries as well, because Myanmar is a neighboring country and a key participant on a one-to-one route. In the midst of the fact that there are few countries that can be called allies in the current socialism of China and Xi Jinping ideology, a valuable companion might be lost.

In addition, as the issues of Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Uighur, which China regarded as its core interests, were intensively discussed by the West, the issue of human rights, media, and religious repression was on the rise. But just in time, a coup took place. “Diamond”, a Japanese economic weekly magazine, predicted that after the Myanmar crisis, China will appeal for a “political solution” externally to secure strategic interests and geopolitical advantage, while trying to expand its influence behind the scenes.

Currently, Myanmar’s trade and investment with China exceeds 30% of the total trade. According to the Ministry of Commerce of Myanmar, the volume of trade between the two countries in the last six months increased by 8% compared to the same period of the previous year, reaching $3 billion. As for Myanmar’s military, even if the United States imposed sanctions, there seems to be no loss in trade and investment. This is because even if trade with Germany and Japan, led by the United States, is suspended for political reasons, the vacancy is expected to be filled by Chinese companies one after another. Even with condemnation from the international community, only China can survive without a big economic blow if only China supports it without shaking. From the perspective of China, it is a “nothing to blow your nose” because it can further expand its influence in Myanmar.

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Both countries have similar history, geopolitical conditions, etc… Locals “Role Model of Korean Democrats”

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At first glance, Korea and Myanmar seem to have no similarities, but if you look closer, they are similar in many ways. First of all, both countries have historically suffered a long-term single-person dictatorship in a coup. The difference is that while Korea achieved economic development as a result of this period, Myanmar, which was once richer than Thailand, fell to hell as a result of choosing an isolation policy.

In Korea, the middle class was formed on the basis of economic growth during the development dictatorship, and paradoxically, they became the leading roles of democratization in 1987. In Myanmar, on August 8, 1988, a democratic government was only established in 2015, 27 years after the so-called ‘8888 generation’ of the democratic uprising, but democracy again faced a crisis after only five years. According to local residents, many Myanmarians know the history of democratization in Korea, such as the May 18, and consider Korea as a role model.

It is also similar to the fact that it is in poor geopolitical conditions. Korea is surrounded by some of the best powers such as China, Japan, and Russia. Myanmar is also facing borders with giant countries such as China and India. It is also a key point for conflicting interests between the US and China, which are competing for supremacy. In particular, the relationship between Myanmar and China has many implications for Korea.

China has been involved in a lot since Myanmar became independent from Britain. Over the 30 years left by the United States, China has built close ties with Myanmar, investing in 130 businesses with a total of 20 billion dollars in funding, and has taken advantage of all kinds of interests throughout Myanmar. Currently, the territory of Myanmar is filled with bridges and roads built by China, and nowhere is there without Chinese people.

Diplomatically, Myanmar has relied on China, which has a veto power to the Security Council whenever it faces difficulties in the international community due to democratization issues in the past and minority issues in recent years. The military as well as the people of Myanmar are said to have been wary of excessive Chinese inclination, but the growing dependence on Chinese capital, markets and products has resulted in a structure that is inevitably vulnerable to Chinese pressure.

Currently, the US administration of Joe Biden is poised to rein in China’s checks, centered on the’quad’ (USA, India, Japan, Australia). Accordingly, it is highly likely to urge ASEAN countries to join. Myanmar is no exception. In particular, the Biden administration, unlike its predecessor Donald Trump, is highly likely to value Myanmar as it did during Obama.

The situation faced by Myanmar is similar to the position of South Korea, in which China, the largest economic partner, is not able to adequately meet the demands of the US, a security ally, amid escalating conflict between the United States and China. It is known that President Biden discussed the Myanmar issue first in the first summit call with President Moon Jae-in last month before the abundance of pending issues. In many ways, Korea’s diplomatic competence is also on the test bed, in many ways, what the direction of the Myanmar crisis will be and what choices Korea should make.

[신윤재 기자]

※ The word “People” is a pure Korean word for “search through and look for”. ‘Look at Korea, China, Japan’ is a series of articles that look at small and large issues occurring in Northeast Asia, and go to subscribers through the Naver reporter page’Subscribe’.

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