“Worldwide Vaccine Population Immunity, Available Mid Next Year”

It is predicted that securing global population immunity through the COVID-19 vaccination will only be possible in the middle of 2022. The reason is that vaccinations in low-income countries will be delayed due to a supply imbalance caused by vaccination stockpiling in some high-income countries and the huge vaccination costs.

On the 21st (local time), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), an economic analysis agency in the UK, said in a report on’Corona 19 Vaccine: Expected Delay’: I will start.”

According to this, the European Union (EU), such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France, are among the first countries in the world to complete vaccination for the entire population.

It is expected that these countries will end vaccination of priority groups such as the elderly, patients with underlying diseases and medical staff by the end of March as early as the end of June and at the latest in June. In the case of the United States, since the inauguration of the Joe Biden administration, EIU predicted that the plan to “hit 100 million people within 100 days of inauguration” is also feasible as the speed of vaccination has been accelerated.

In addition, as vaccinations in high-income countries accelerate, there is also a forecast that the global economy will rebound in the third quarter of this year and then return to a rapid recovery.

However, EIU’s analysis is that even in developed countries that have completed the vaccination, it will be difficult to immediately return to the pre-Corona 19 crisis. This is because many countries other than these countries saw that immunization takes longer.

Russia, Brazil, and Mexico are the regions that have been vaccinated next to the US and Europe by EIU. The timing of completion of vaccination in these countries is predicted to be in mid-2022.

The vaccine supply problem was pointed out as the main reason that these countries’ vaccination rates lag behind those of high-income countries. According to EIU, some countries, including developed countries, have pre-ordered half of the 12.5 billion batches expected to be produced by major pharmaceutical companies this year. Therefore, the countries that signed the contract later had problems with the supply of vaccines and the vaccination was delayed.

However, it is predicted that Russia, which develops and produces vaccines in-house, and Latin American countries such as Brazil and Mexico, which secured vaccines in exchange for consignment production, will be able to finish the vaccination as the second highest in the world. In addition, it is estimated that Korea, Japan, and Australia will also complete the vaccination by mid-2022. However, EIU explained that the immunization could be done sooner depending on the financial situation, medical resources, population size and political will.

On the other hand, the timing of completion of vaccinations in China and India was pushed back to the late 2022. Although it has started before self-development and rapid acquisition, it is predicted that due to the large population, vaccination at the level to reach collective immunity will be possible only at the end of next year.

It was predicted that the vaccinations of poor countries, such as Africa, were “dark”. These low-income countries plan to rely on COVAX, a vaccine alliance led by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Association for Vaccine Immunization (GAVI) to receive vaccines.

Kovacs plans to distribute 2 billion doses of vaccine equally around the world by the end of this year. However, only 1.07 billion doses have been secured so far with vaccine stocking in high-income countries.

It is predicted that the vaccination process will not be smooth even after receiving the vaccine due to insufficient storage facilities, manpower, and financial difficulties. Accordingly, full-fledged vaccination is expected to begin only in 2023.

Reporter Lee Min-jung [email protected]