“Will the house price increase? It’s already at the bubble level.” “Next year, house prices in Seoul will rise 9.9%.” “The burden of holding tax will eventually affect the increase in the sale price.”
This is an analysis from’Zipkonomy Concert Week’, which was broadcast live through the Zipkonomi TV YouTube channel. This event was held as a relay live for a week from the 7th. It covered a wide range of topics, from the forecast of next year’s house price to the’Housing Lease Protection Act’ that shook the jeon and monthly rent markets, and real estate taxes. In particular, the two-way communication method in which the performers directly respond to real-time comments received great response from subscribers. Zipkonomy TV, the premium real estate brand of Korea Economic Daily and Hankyung.com, is subscribed to by 200,000 people, the largest number of real estate channels in domestic media outlets. We have summarized the core contents of’Zipkonomy Concert Week’.
The direction of house prices next year
Lee Sang-woo, CEO of Invade Investment Advisory
Lee Sang-woo, CEO of Invade Investment Advisory, who appeared on the 7th, presented a forecast of 9.9% of house price growth in Seoul next year. Based on the average selling price of KB Real Estate apartments. Representative Lee said, “From next year, the number of new apartment tenants will be reduced.” He explained.
Representative Lee believes that the burden of ownership tax, which will surge next year, will be insufficient to ease the rise in house prices. In the real estate market, as demand for selling houses increases before the tax base date (June 1), the market is “lower and lower” (fall in the first half-rebound in the second half). However, his analysis is that tax has become a constant, not a variable. CEO Lee said, “All taxes from acquisition tax to capital gains tax have risen, so there is no choice but to hold.”
Kyungmin Kim Professor, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University
Professor Kim Kyung-min of Seoul National University’s Graduate School of Environment, who appeared on the 8th the next day, was also concerned about the side effects of the real estate tax. Prof. Kim pointed out, “Excluding some of the cash shortages, it is possible to bear the holding tax as a’new normal’.” .
However, Professor Kim diagnosed housing prices in some large cities such as Seoul as bubble levels. He said he was pessimistic about the continued uptrend. Professor Kim pointed out, “We need to get away from the perspective of taking only apartments as investments. As the economic situation is not good, we need to pay attention to REITs (real estate investment companies) with excellent liquidity and undervalued land markets.” He pointed out that “Reitz has to be careful because there are cases in which local or retail (distribution) assets are packaged with poor marketability.”
Policy failure causes house price anxiety
Experts contend that it was a policy failure that caused the unstable house prices. In particular, it was evaluated that the revision of the lease law, such as the right to apply for contract renewal and the monthly rent limit system, has become a’game changer’.
Representative Lee said, “In the situation where new supply is decreasing, even policies have affected the jeonse price.” “Although a pre-generation plan came out, it was questionable whether it would be possible to reduce the demand for apartments through villas.” Prof. Kim also analyzed that the increase in house prices until the first quarter of this year was limited to Seoul, but it became a national problem due to the revision of the leasing law.
Heon-Dong Kim Head of Real Estate Construction Reform Headquarters
Kim Heon-dong, head of the Real Estate Construction Reform Headquarters of the Citizens’ Alliance for Economic Justice, who claims himself as a’real estate policy sniper’ of the Moon Jae-in administration, poured out criticism of his intentions on the third day, 9th. Headquarter Kim pointed out, “We should have introduced the lease reporting system first to understand the actual situation.” He pointed out, “As I thought that I would bet from the upper limit of the price without even knowing the jeonse market price, side effects are bound to appear.” He said, “The government couldn’t find anything to help, but the high-priced chartered tenants benefited from fishermen’s geography,” he said. “The priority and detail of the policy are all wrong.
Headquarters Kim said, “Even though all policies that came out every two months have failed, the responsibility lies with the former government,” he said. He then ordered, “A drastic policy such as land rental housing and’half-price apartment’ is necessary.”
Confusion in the jeonse market continues with the enforcement of the lease law
Shin Tae-ho Law Firm, Hanil Representative Attorney
Shin Tae-ho, the representative attorney of Hanil Law Firm, who appeared on the 4th day, 10th, pointed out the issues of the right to apply for contract renewal and the previous and monthly limit system. Because of the sudden and poorly revised laws, confusion is inevitable for many years until precedents are established.
Attorney Shin pointed out that there are particularly many problems with the landlord’s loss of damage regulations. Tenants who are unreasonably refused to renew their contracts can claim damages from the landlord, because this limit is linked to the conversion rate to cheonsei and monthly rent. He explained, “The law stipulates that tenants’ claim for damages is calculated by converting the deposit for cheonsei into monthly rent,” he said. The policy promoted to stop the accelerating cheonsei crisis led to damage to tenants.
Attorney Shin feared that the situation in which landlords unfairly expelled tenants would spread. This is because even if the damages are compensated immediately, the profit of increasing the security deposit while inducing new tenants is larger. The jeon/month lease ceiling does not apply to new lease contracts where tenants change. “Considering the amount of money a tenant can be compensated for, there will be no attorney to sue for a low wage,” he said.
Reporter Hyungjin Jeon [email protected]