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The public sentiment for the victory of the opposition parties in the Seoul-Busan mayoral by-election held on April 7 this year appeared to be intense. As the single candidate for the conservative opposition, Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly Party, received the highest support. According to a poll conducted by Metrics Research, commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN on the 3rd, the Democratic Party 28.3% and the people’s power 28.1%, along with the question of’Which party wants to win the Seoul-Busan by-election in April?’ This was followed by the People’s Party 5.0%, the Justice Party 4.7%, and the Open Democratic Party 2.8%. Even if the political parties that are discussing the possibility of unifying candidates in the future are added, the pan-passport (and the Democratic Party and the Open Democratic Party) and the conservative opposition (the People’s Power and the People’s Party) are 31.1% and 33.1%, respectively, and it was found that they were close to each other.
Although the Moon Jae-in administration and the ruling party’s “real estate policy” and “discipline of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol” have been controversial, it can be seen that the “regime judgment theory” still does not form an overwhelming public opinion. It is also interpreted that trust in current conservative opposition parties, which focus on criticism rather than alternatives, is not high. This public sentiment is represented by the fact that the percentage of unknown and non-responding to the party that wants to win was 27.9%.
When looking at Seoul, where the elections are held, the opinion that the Democratic Party wants to win is more than the people’s strength within the margin of error. In Seoul, the Democratic Party was 31.3% and the people’s power was 26.8%. The percentage of people who wanted the victory of the National Assembly Party, which Cheol-soo Ahn, who was running for election, was 7.1%, somewhat higher than the national survey rate. On the other hand, in Busan, 42.8% of public opinion wanted to win the power of the people and only 16.9% of the Democratic Party. However, as the percentage of unknown or unanswered in Seoul and Busan accounted for 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively, the ruling and opposition candidates were confirmed, and there is a possibility that the election market may fluctuate in the future depending on whose hands the non-governmental voters serve.
In the category of single candidate for opposition, which became the biggest issue of conservative political parties in the Mayor of Seoul, President Ahn took first place by defeating politicians under the power of the people outside the margin of error. In the case of unification, 23.9% of the respondents cited Representative Ahn in a questionnaire surveying suitable opposition candidates. Former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won took the second place with 11.1%, and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the same party was 11.0%. This was followed by former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop (3.2%), former lawmaker Lee Hye-hoon (2.2%), and Cho Eun-hee, head of Seocho-gu, Seoul (1.2%). The percentage of no candidates to support also came out at 35.1%.
In celebration of the new year, as President Ahn appears as the most suitable candidate for the opposition in the Maeil Economic Daily and MBN survey following public opinion polls conducted by major media and research institutions, tensions in the passport, which are experiencing a recent decline in approval ratings, are expected to increase. In the passport, Democratic Party Rep. Woo Sang-ho, Park Ju-min and Park Young-sun, Minister of Small and Medium Venture Business, are among the leading candidates, but Park and Rep. Park have not yet expressed their intention to run.
Looking at the respondents from Seoul, Ahn’s approval rate was 24.0%, similar to the national approval rate. Oh, the former mayor was second in Seoul with 13.3%, and former lawmaker I was third with 10.1%. Among those who want the power of the people to win in the election, 36.2% of Representative Ahn, 24.8% of former lawmakers and 14.9% of former Mayors were counted. Among the conservatives, Ahn 29.9%, former lawmaker 20.9%, and former market 11.4%.
Taking these results together, if the Mayor Oh refuses to run for the mayor of Seoul with the next presidential election in mind, it can be a major variable to whom the center and conservative votes who supported him will be directed. Former Mayor Oh has formed an 11~15% support for those who are highly interested in unifying opposition candidates.
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