Wall Street alone will enjoy the most booming US economy by next year

“The United States will lead the global economic recovery this year,” said investment experts from Wall Street, New York, USA. Corona 19 vaccination is faster than expected, and large-scale stimulus measures are coming out one after another. Among the investment items, he advised that companies related to climate change and ESG (environmental, social and governance) should be noted.

Eden Harris, head of the Bank of America (BoA) Global Economic Research Institute, said at a conference hosted by the New York Foreign Press Center (FPC), “The vaccine effect in the United States will be visible from April.” It will be” he affirmed.

“The amount of household savings accumulated since last year’s economic blockade reached 3 trillion dollars,” said Harris. “After the economic resumption, consumption will increase explosively, like dry gunpowder catches fire.” By the end of next year, the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4%, the level of full employment.

“Last year was not a recession, but a time when we stopped economic activities to fight the virus,” said Jean Bovin, head of the world’s largest asset management company, Black Rock. “The speed of recovery is because it is not a recovery but a restart of the economy. “It has to be incredibly fast.” “The climate change industry will account for 25% of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP) over 20 years,” he advised. “Climate change and ESG investment strategies can be a strong source of profits.”

Barry Banister Stifel (General Financial Group) chief equity strategist, who has been voted “the best analyst” several times on Wall Street, said the US economic outlook is very bright, but the stock market is on the shelf. “If the market liquidity begins to decline, the stock market that used to be cheered may suddenly cool down,” he warned, saying, “A 10% decline this year will not be difficult.” He diagnosed, “In the long run, Korea is very interesting.” “It has a reasonable asset value and the prospect of return is bright.”

“The US inflation rate will soar to 3.3% in the third quarter,” said Louis Organus, head of JP Morgan Chase Research Center, and predicted that “the central bank (Fed) will switch to tightening such as reducing asset purchases within the year.”

He said, “During the 2008 financial crisis, the authorities bought only US Treasury bonds and mortgage securities (MBS), but this time they expanded their targets to speculative-grade bonds significantly. “It can’t be seen as a bubble.”

“The US corona fiscal input, four times that of the financial crisis…this year’s economic explosion will grow”
Video conference with correspondent Hankyung

“The amount of money the US government put in right after the pandemic (a global pandemic) is four times that of the 2008 global financial crisis. The economy will grow explosively this year.” (Jang Bovin, Director of Black Rock Investment Research Institute)

All of New York’s Wall Street investment experts were optimistic about the outlook for the U.S. economy this year. This is because it has implemented massive stimulus measures and is the fastest in the world to get the COVID-19 vaccination. As of the end of last month, the vaccination rate in the United States has already reached 30% of the total population. Experts also positively evaluated the economies of China, India and Korea.

○“The stock market surged, but it is not a bubble”

“Vaccines are being vaccinated much faster than originally expected” at a conference hosted by the New York Foreign Press Center (FPC), head of the Bank of America (BoA) Global Economic Research Institute. “Unlike the financial crisis, financial and real estate crises are accompanied. Because I am not doing it, the recovery rate will be faster.”

He said, “When the $900 billion at the end of last year and the $1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package last month amounted to 13% of the US gross domestic product (GDP, $21 trillion), we launched a similar stimulus plan last spring. It was an amazing incident in that it was additionally implemented in the last month.” He explained that the delay in fiscal execution during the financial crisis reflected the authorities’ willingness not to repeat the failures that were slow to recover.

Director Beauvin estimated that the economic loss caused by the Corona 19 incident was about 25% of that of the financial crisis. He said, “The shock lasted for about 10 years during the financial crisis, but this time it is a sign that we will overcome it in a year or so,” he said. “There is a high possibility of continued growth in the future.

Barry Banister, chief equity strategist of Stifel, a general financial group, said the US stock market was on fire since last year, but he predicts that further gains will not be easy. However, it was determined that there was no’bubble’. He said, “There have been only four bubbles in the past 110 years of history: 1928, 1936, 1966, and 1998-1999,” he said. “If you climb more, bubbles can form, but not yet.”

○ Promising future investment destination is ESG industry

In the meantime, stock prices have soared mainly in large tech stocks (big tech) in the New York Stock Market, but experts advise that stocks related to climate change and ESG (environmental, social and governance) are promising in the future. Frederick Cannon, chief equity strategist of investment bank KBW (Kip Bruyette & Wood), said, “More and more global investment funds are starting to evaluate ESG scores for each company. Will be collected.” It recommended that the financial and energy sectors are also promising due to the impact of inflation resulting from the economic recovery.

“We need to pay more attention to sustainable investment strategies,” said Mr. Beauvin. This is because the investment paradigm is changing 180 degrees. “In the past, climate change and sustainable investment meant that some of the profitability was abandoned, but now it has changed,” he said. “Rather, it provides a strong investment opportunity.”

“There will be a war on climate change,” said Banister strategist. He predicted that “the energy production industry is essentially a’scale economy’ industry because of fixed costs. As an eco-friendly industry emerges, considerable controversy such as rising costs will be inevitable,” he predicted.

○ Chinese, Indian, and Korean markets are noteworthy.

Lewis Organus, head of the JP Morgan Chase Emerging Markets Research Center, said that China and neighboring countries need to pay attention. He pointed out that “the growth rate of China this year will reach 9.4%, which is significantly higher than the government target (6% level),” he pointed out, “the level to be concerned about overheating.” If China actually achieves a 9% growth rate, it will be 10 years since 2011 (9.6%).

It is diagnosed that China’s high growth rate will have a minor impact on neighboring countries such as Korea. “Korea and Taiwan are showing a completely consistent economic flow with mainland China,” said the head of the Organus Center, and will benefit from China’s growth.

Among other emerging markets, I thought India would stand out. This year, India’s growth rate is forecast to reach 13.6%. The global economy, which had shrunk by 5.0% last year, is expected to turn to growth of 5.6% this year.

On the other hand, the speed of recovery in South America will be very slow, according to the head of the Organus Center. He said, “In some emerging countries such as Latin America, the vaccination rate may be less than 60% in the first half of next year, rather than the end of this year.”

General Harris diagnosed that the growth engine of the global economy would be slightly undermined as the confrontation between the US and China intensified. “The global economy has been integrated in a very powerful way over the past 30 years,” he said. “It is impossible to reverse the process of globalization without any pain.” “The US acknowledges that China has emerged as a regional powerhouse, and China also needs to understand its intellectual property rights and expansion of its economic system. It is very difficult for state-led companies and private companies to compete in the same market.” Said.

New York = Correspondent Jae-Gil Cho [email protected]