Nurse Sandra Lindsay was recorded as the first COVID-19 vaccine in the United States. Photos are not related to the article. /Photo = Yonhap News
The Bank of Korea predicted that the global economy in 2021 will depend on a novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) vaccine, US President-elect Joe Biden’s economic policy’Bidenomics’, an uneven recovery in countries around the world, and China’s transformation of growth strategies .
On the 3rd, the BOK selected and announced ‘7 issues that will determine the direction of the global economy in 2021’ through World Economic Focus. The BOK predicted that “the global economy next year will have some negative factors such as deepening economic recovery imbalances, but the growth will increase in the second half of the year due to the commercialization of the Corona 19 vaccine and the expansion of fiscal spending by the new US government.” However, he added, “There is a possibility that the global economy will develop in an unpredictable direction as various issues such as the delay in the end of Corona 19 and the conflict between the US and China have an impact.”
Regarding the Corona 19 vaccine, it is expected that the commercialization time will arrive faster than expected with the start of vaccination in major countries. It is expected that it will help economic recovery as it approaches collective immunity in the second half of the year. However, he diagnosed, “The feeling of rejection of vaccination and the possibility of delaying the release of some vaccines can prevent the early end of Corona 19.”
As the Biden administration’s Bidnomics begins in earnest, it is predicted that US fiscal expenditure will increase further. As tax increases, multilateralism, and eco-friendly policies are also promoted, it is expected to have a positive impact on the overall global economy.
China also emerged as a major variable. This is because China predicted a shift in economic growth policy according to the 14th Five-Year Economic and Social Development Plan. It is believed that China will shift its policy stance from export-oriented growth to bicyclic growth that utilizes the potential of the huge domestic market. The possibility of prolonged conflict between the US and China is also a variable.
The economic imbalance in Europe and the resulting political conflict are also key. In particular, it is expected that disagreements will arise between countries on refugees and climate issues.
They also thought that the global economic recovery would be unbalanced. The BOK said, “While the widening imbalance between developed and emerging economies restricts the recovery of the global economy, the deepening imbalance between classes and industries within the country may cause the Corona 19 shock to fix.
It was also said that a new climate system will be launched, led by the US Biden government. The BOK said, “The international community’s response to climate change will be further strengthened. As each government expands investment in eco-friendly technologies, competition for new industries and markets will intensify and the development of eco-friendly technologies will be promoted.” .
Reporter Kang Jin-kyu [email protected]
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