Analysis from the US military command suggests that China’s invasion of Taiwan could become a reality within a few years.
It was also suggested that Taiwan should consider a plan to clarify its plans for military assistance by the United States if it is invaded by China.
According to the British Guardian, US Indo-Pacific Command Commander Philip Davidson attended a hearing on the US Senate Military Commission on the 9th (local time) and looked forward to China’s expansion of Asian power.
Commander Davidson said, “I am concerned that China will speed up to replace the U.S. and its leading role by 2050 in an international order based on regulations.” , It will become clear in the next six years.”
It was also pointed out that China’s expansion of military power within the region is creating a situation that is disadvantageous to the United States, which may weaken its deterrence.
Commander Davidson argued, “We are building the risk of making China feel unilaterally changing the situation before an effective response by the US military.”
The hearing was held on that day to review the Indo-Pacific Command in the process of deliberating the Defense Authorization Act (Defense Budget Act) for the 2022 fiscal year and future defense plans of the US government.
Conflicts between the US and China and tensions between China and Taiwan have existed for a long time, but these days have been rapidly increasing.
The Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, which was separated from the civil war in 1949, but is taking the position that it can be occupied at any time as part of its territory.
In Taiwan, an increasing number of people reject the view that they are part of China.
In particular, the bilateral relations between China and Taiwan have increased since President Chai Ing-wen, who has an anti-Chinese tendency, came to power in 2016.
Relations between the United States and China over Taiwan also deteriorated sharply as former U.S. President Donald Trump took a hard line against China.
The Trump administration rejected China’s “One China” foreign policy, which does not recognize Taiwan as an independent country, and also increased arms sales to Taiwan.
China repeated armed demonstrations through military operations, saying that it was a corresponding measure, and sent fighters to the Taiwan Strait to invade Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Experts have mixed opinions on the possibility of China’s military action targeting Taiwan.
“I’m not convinced that the (diplomatic and economic) options available before China’s full invasion of Taiwan were exhausted,” said Jessica Drun of Project 2049, a think tank dealing with Asian security.
However, Drun said, “If China invades Taiwan from time to time, there is an increased risk of accidents due to misjudgment,” he said. Pointed out.
The US broke up with Taiwan in 1979 and established diplomatic relations with China, but recognized Taiwan as an unofficial alliance and supported it militarily.
For decades, the United States has maintained its deterrent with a strategic ambiguity that rejects a clear position over whether or not military aid is available when Taiwan is invaded.
Commander Davidson said at the hearing that day, “I admit that we have helped maintain the current state with Taiwan by maintaining strategic ambiguity for 40 years, but these things must be reviewed at all times.”
The Joe Biden administration has not officially mentioned the cessation of this policy, but it does make clear plans to continue supporting Taiwan.
The U.S. State Department declared in January that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan was solid, and inviting a representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office, who serves as the ambassador to the U.S., to the inauguration ceremony of the president, made an unprecedented decision since 1979.
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