‘Rosy expectation’ in the implementation of vaccine distribution and super stimulus measures
The Chinese government aims to’more than 6%’… In the mid to long term, it is still more than the US
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The rosy expectations for the US economy are growing.
This is because an astronomical stimulus plan is being implemented to accelerate vaccination against the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).
Accordingly, there is even an expectation that it can surpass China’s economic growth rate for the first time in 45 years.
CNN Business reported on the 12th (local time) that the US could surpass China for the first time in decades in the 2021 economic growth rate as the US administration’s economic stimulus measures go into effect.
The Chinese government has suggested ‘6% or more’ as a target for this year’s growth rate.
Goldman Sachs recently forecast the US’s growth rate this year at 6.9%, the highest since 1984, and Morgan Stanley predicts it will grow by 7.3%.
Considering that the consensus of China’s growth rate estimates compiled by global financial data company Refinitiv is 8.4%, there is a possibility that the US will at least match or exceed China’s.
According to World Bank statistics, 1976 was the last time the US growth rate surpassed China.
The closest thing was in 1999, when the dot-com boom occurred, with US and China growth rates of 4.8% and 7.7%, respectively.
Higher economic growth rates mean more jobs are created.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the US unemployment rate will fall below 5% at the end of this year and below 4% at the end of next year.
In the past, even when recovering from the economic crisis, China’s economy was faster than the United States.
In 2010, which began to recover after the financial crisis in the late 2000s, China’s economy grew 10.6%, four times that of the United States, and in 2019, before the spread of Corona 19, the growth rate gap was nearly three times.
One of the factors predicting the high growth rate of the U.S. economy this year is that the economy is expected to recover faster than expected as the number of corona19 confirmed and deaths significantly decreased due to the spread of vaccination first.
In addition, the scale of the Corona 19 stimulus bill, which was recently completed with legislation, reached $1.9 trillion (about 2,159 trillion won), which was larger than expected before the presidential election last year or earlier this year also had an impact.
However, there is a possibility that the US will not be ahead of China in terms of economic growth this year.
This is because a disruption in the US vaccine program may occur, and new obstacles such as mutant viruses may appear.
Even if the United States overtakes China, it is likely to be the only year this year.
This is because, demographically and productively, the younger Chinese economy is predicted to grow faster in the medium to long term than the mature US economy.
Nevertheless, CNN Business predicted that this year, the US, not China, will be the driving force behind global economic growth.
/ Reporter Kwak Yoon-ah [email protected]
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