The’Money Move’, in which abundant money released in the market is rapidly flowing into the stock market, is in full swing. In addition to breaking existing savings and savings bankbooks, the phenomenon of’debt investment’ is intensifying, in which loans are received from banks and securities companies to invest in stocks. Accordingly, financial authorities are concerned about the insolvency of credit loans that cannot pay off debts if the stock price falls sharply in the future.
According to the financial sector on the 17th, KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, Woori, and Nonghyup’s five major commercial banks’ total balance of term deposits as of the 14th of this month was 630.985.8 billion won. This is a decrease of 9,739.9 billion won from the end of last year (640 trillion 725.7 billion won).
The reason for using this period as a reference is that the stock index, the KOSPI, has soared since October 30 (2267) of last year and reached 3266 during the week on the 11th of this month. With the phenomenon of jumping close to 1,000 points in just two months and five days, experts believe that bank customers broke their deposits and started investing in stocks. During the same period, the installment amount increased by 208.3 billion won from 40,9856 billion won to 41 trillion 1940 billion won. However, the trend has declined rapidly since last December. Compared to the end of November last year, it decreased by 106.7 billion won in December, and an additional 127 billion won fell by the 14th of this year. Demand deposit balances, which can be withdrawn at any time, with short-term funds, declined more rapidly. This year, it has decreased by 11,757.5 billion won. In recent years, some analysts say that high-income owners are actively investing by transferring money from banks to the stock market.
A commercial bank PB said, “This year, high-value wealthy people are transferring funds canceled from term deposits and surplus funds from demand deposits to stocks.” Some of the financial sector analyzes that the line of credit loans, including the opening of negative bankbooks from the beginning of the year, is also deeply related to the stock market situation. As the financial authorities regulated professional credit loan products in the banking sector since the end of last year, the number of more convenient markets is increasing. The number of opening Matongs per day jumped from 1048 on December 31 of last year to 2,204 on the 14th of this month, about 2.2 times.
Accordingly, by the 14th of this month, the five major banks’ new negative bankbooks totaled 2,588, and the balance of the negative bankbooks rose 1,6602 billion won (46,531 billion won → 48 trillion 191.2 billion won).
The problem is that while the financial authorities set an upper limit on bank loans (2 trillion won per month) and regulate them, securities firms’ loans are virtually neglected. As of the 14th of this month, the balance of credit loans that customers received as collateral from securities companies reached a record high of 21,2826 billion won. In particular, some point out that there is a high concern about insolvency due to higher interest rates than bank loans for securities firms’ credit loans.
Recently, more and more investors choose to invest directly in stocks from pension accounts.
As of the end of last year, the balance of the Listed Index Fund (ETF) in the pension savings accounts of six securities companies, including Mirae Asset Daewoo, NH Investment & Securities, Korea Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities, KB Securities, and Shinhan Financial Investment, recorded KRW 1,191.2 billion. This is a 306% increase from the end of 2019. The proportion of ETF balances in the total pension savings account balance was 11.8%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points from the previous year.
It’s not just pensions. Although the KOSPI rose to 3150 last week, the stock market’s waiting fund is still over 60 trillion won. According to the Financial Investment Association, as of the 14th, investor deposits amounted to 67,823.6 billion won. This is an increase of 142.4% compared to the same period last year. Investor deposits are funds entrusted by individual investors to securities companies to buy stocks. On the 12th, it reached an all-time high of 74,455.9 billion won, which seems to have decreased somewhat as individuals purchased 98 trillion won over the past week. The CMA balance, which can flow into stocks at any time, also recorded 63,846.4 billion won as of the 14th.
As loans prepared by banks and securities companies are sucked into the asset market such as stocks like a’black hole,’ financial authorities are also growing concerns.
Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol said on the rising fear of overheating in the asset market, such as breaking the KOSPI 3000 in the stock market on the 15th, “The rate of increase is very fast compared to before, but I am concerned that this speeding could greatly shake even a small shock.” Revealed. Governor Lee added, “The KOSPI is soaring every day, and it is difficult to determine in advance whether the uptrend is a bubble or not, but there is a possibility that the stock price will be adjusted as market participants’ expectations change.”
[문일호 기자 / 김규식 기자]
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