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Quad member countries push for regulations to block China’s own export limit
China raises the level of response to “No Rare Earth Technology in 4 Countries”
US “Come in the Quad” China “Avoid”…Korea’s choice
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China is truly a rare earth powerhouse. It accounts for the largest 58% of the world’s rare earth production (based on 2020, based on the U.S. Geological Survey), and it is also a country that uses the most rare earth as a’factory of the world’.
In that context, it is not unusual for the leaders of the Quad, a security consultative in the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, to set’rare-earth independence’ from China as their main goal. The apparent reason is that it seeks stable procurement by reorganizing the rare earth supply chain, which is an essential material for the industry, but it is believed that there is a multi-purpose pavement to “take out China’s power” by crushing China’s’rare earth weaponization’.
There is an assessment that the rare earth war has already begun in the market. In high-tech industries such as semiconductors, communication equipment, and electric vehicle batteries, rare earths can be another highly volatile detonator in the midst of a sharp conflict between the US and China. In particular, restrictions on the import of rare earths directly mean a blow to the high-tech industry. The U.S. and China are expected to fight fiercely over rare earths, which are the alpha and omega in the fight for future technological supremacy. There is also a high possibility that the Korean government will be pushed into the position of being forced to make a choice by being caught in the US and China.
◇Promote to prevent China from restricting its own exports through quad = Rare earth is a generic term for 17 elements that do not have a large amount of earth’s abundance. These rare earths are widely used in high-tech industries, future industries, and high-tech weapons. The more high-tech products use rare earth to extract high performance, so the future usage is expected to increase further.
Just a few years ago, China dominated the world’s rare earth supply chain. Although rare earths have a small amount of abundance compared to other elements, they are not necessarily absent. The problem is that enormous environmental pollution occurs in the process of mining and refining rare earths to make industrial materials. Due to the extraction of highly toxic chemicals, a large amount of toxic wastewater is generated.
For this reason, reserves of rare earths are also important, but authoritarian power and a wealth of cheap labor to alleviate concerns about environmental pollution are essential. It is for this reason that China, which occupied 37% of the world’s reserves, once supplied 98% of the world market and was dominant. The US also solves 80% of the total need by sending its own rare earth ore to China, refining it, and then re-importing it.
Given the circumstances, the possibility of China’s rare-earth weaponization, which is in the midst of a fight for supremacy with the US, has always been discussed. In fact, Japan also enjoyed the’hot taste’ of China’s rare earth monopoly. When Japan nationalized the Senkaku Islands (Chinese name Diaoyudao) in 2010, China stopped supplying rare earths to Japan. As a result, the price of some rare earths in Japan soared nearly nine times.
This is the background behind the rush of the U.S. to build a supply chain for rare earths that China is taking the lead through the quad.
According to foreign media such as Nippon Geizai, the four quad countries are not only restructuring the rare earth supply chain, but also promoting a plan by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to make a rule that prevents China from limiting the amount of rare earth exports on its own. Of course, if China doesn’t accept it, it’s a horseback. However, it is a passage that can read the US willingness to stabilize the supply and demand of rare earths through the lynchpin, the quad of the strategy toward Asia.
◇Rare earth is a’double-edged sword’… Korea’s growing worries at the crossroads of choice = Currently, China’s influence in the field of rare earth is not the same as it used to be. As of 2020, China’s share of world rare earth supplies has fallen to 58%. This is because the United States and Australia have steadily increased their production by conspiring to reduce the dependence of rare earths on China, and many other countries have paid attention to this market and entered the market competitively.
China is the largest producer of rare earths, but it is also the largest importer. China consumes 57% of the world’s rare earths, of which imports are large. In fact, for the first time in 2018, China’s rare earth imports exceeded exports.
The relationship with the United States is not only one-sided. The US imports 80% of its rare earth needs from China, but it also exports some rare earths to China. Rare earths exported by the United States to China last year increased by 54% compared to the previous year.
Due to these reasons, China has recently refrained from stimulating the United States with rare earths. In fact, China recently raised the production quota for its miners in the first half of this year by 27.6% compared to last year. At the time, foreign media also commented that China sent a message of reconciliation to the US administration of Joe Biden.
However, with this quad discussion, it is likely that China will also raise the level of response. Although head-on collisions are avoided as much as possible, China is expected to develop its own response scenario. In fact, China is showing its confidence, saying,’It is impossible to escape its influence easily from rare earths.’ The reason is that the four countries do not have the technology and human resources related to rare earths, and it will take a considerable amount of time to establish their own supply and demand network. Chen Zan-hung, deputy secretary of the China Rare Earth Industry Association, argued, “The quad could challenge some of China’s position in the field of rare earth, but it is impossible to eliminate dependence on China in a short period of time.”
The problem is us. This is because the higher the level of conflict over rare earths between the US, China, and China, the more ambiguity is between the US and China, saying, “Enter the new supply chain by joining the quad,” and China, “maintain strategic ambiguity through the absence of the quad”.
/ Reporter Maeng Joon-ho [email protected]
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