The quarantine authorities predicted that the daily spread of new coronavirus infections (Corona 19) will return to a decline next week, while also drawing a line on the possibility of a three-stage upgrade. However, infectious disease experts are showing a cautious response, saying, “It is difficult to predict.”
It is an order to establish quarantine measures from a conservative point of view, as the number of new confirmed cases recorded a record high of 1241 as of 0 o’clock on the 25th of Christmas Day, and there are still many latent infections in the community outside the quarantine network.
As of 0 o’clock on the 26th, there is a possibility that the number of confirmed patients per day will decrease to around 950~1000 due to the effect of a decrease in the inspection volume on holidays. However, even though there were no large-scale outbreaks such as the Eastern Detention Center in Seoul, where 288 people poured out a day ago, the number of confirmed cases around 1,000 is by no means a small number. Even if it falls to less than 1000 people, it is not safe as it reflects the effect of reducing holiday diagnostic tests.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and each local government on the 26th, the number of new confirmed cases counted from 0am to 11pm on the 25th was 313 in Seoul, 226 in Gyeonggi, 49 in Incheon, 9 in Chungnam, 33 in Gyeongbuk, There were 842 people, including 32 from Jeonbuk, 23 from Busan, 22 from Gyeongnam, 14 from Jeju, 14 from Daegu, 13 from Gwangju, 9 from Daejeon, 8 from Ulsan, 2 from Jeonnam, and 1 from Sejong.
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The Ministry of Health and Welfare’s Central Accident Response Headquarters said, “It is predicted that the spread of Corona 19 may decrease by next week,” even though it is cautious. It is unusually accepted that the quarantine authorities, which have always emphasized social distancing due to concerns about the spreading trend, mentioned the decline.
Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Central Accident Control Headquarters, said at a regular briefing on the day, “I have a cautious outlook as to whether it may go down after next week.”
“In addition to various distancing measures, 2.5 steps in the metropolitan area, and second steps nationwide, we have greatly expanded the amount of testing to find potential infected people in the local community as much as possible.” There are many tests being done,” he added.
The quarantine authorities have installed temporary screening and inspection stations in the metropolitan area sequentially from the 14th. Out of the 150 originally planned, 147 were installed, and 121 new confirmed cases were found as of 0 o’clock on the day. The 121 new confirmed cases were 60 in Seoul, 51 in Gyeonggi and 10 in Incheon.
There were a total of 1025 confirmed cases, and Seoul accounted for about half with 561. Gyeonggi and Incheon were counted at 376 and 88 respectively. The positive rate is 0.25%. On the first day of operation of the temporary screening clinic, the positive rate was 0.38%, which fell to half the level. However, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of an additional group infection, as there are 100 confirmed cases outside the quarantine network.
The reason why the quarantine authorities predicted a decline in Corona 19 next week is that the infectious material production index remains at the 1.2 level. The Infectious Reproduction Index is an index indicating how many people can transmit the virus to one infected person. Usually, if the infectious reproduction index is less than 1, the risk of social outbreak is considered low, and if it is more than 1, the risk is considered to be high.
The Infectious Reproduction Index of 1.2 means that one infected person is spreading Corona 19 to another 1.2 people. To curb the spread of Corona 19, the Infectious Reproduction Index must fall below 1. However, the quarantine authorities are relieved that the infectious material production index has not risen from 1.2, taking into account the seasonal factors of indoor living.
Based on this situation, the quarantine authorities are cautious in raising the distance to the third stage. In order to raise the distance to three stages, the confirmed patients must come out to a level that medical and quarantine capabilities cannot handle, but this is not the case now.
“We have announced measures to operate special quarantine measures for the year-end and New Year holidays until January 3, and to refrain from small workers,” said Yoon Tae-ho, head of quarantine general manager Jungsu-bon. “If these measures are done well, it may go down after next week.” did. He added, “There is also room for hospital beds while catching up with the medical capacity (proliferation tax) to some extent.”
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Although the quarantine authorities predicted the decline in Corona 19, experts on infectious diseases are still conservative. Hundreds of confirmed cases are pouring out due to group infections outside the quarantine network, and there is a limit to finding all latent infected people in the local community through screening clinics in the metropolitan area.
The Eastern Detention Center, where there were 514 cumulative confirmed cases, found 187 in the first diagnostic test on the 20th, but 288 new confirmed cases were poured out in the recent second test. This is because confirmed cases continued to occur even before and after the first examination.
Unlike nursing hospitals and nursing facilities, correctional facilities have not been subject to infection-prone facilities. The surveillance network of the quarantine authorities was also weak. However, since more than 500 additional infections have occurred since one confirmed case, there is no law that the second and third Seoul East Detention Center cases should not come out.
The Ministry of Justice plans to conduct a thorough inspection against detention centers nationwide. However, if diagnostic tests are not performed on a regular basis, new confirmed cases are bound to occur at any time. There is also a high likelihood of outbreaks of outbreaks in unexpected facilities.
Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious medicine at Daegu Guro Hospital, predicted that confirmed cases will continue to occur unless the distance is raised to three stages. In particular, due to the nature of winter, where there is a lot of indoor life, as many as 1,500 to 2,000 people per day were assumed, and the authorities ordered to take measures.
If the number of confirmed cases per day is about 2000, the domestic medical system is difficult to handle. In this case, not only the 3rd stage of distancing, but also large sports facilities in the metropolitan area can be converted into hospitals.
Choi Won-seok, a professor of infectious medicine at the University Ansan Hospital, also repeatedly pointed out that the infectious reproductive index maintained at 1.2 is a situation where the spread has not stopped. He also ordered that if the quarantine authorities want to somehow delay the upgrade of the 3rd stage of distancing, an additional quarantine measure must come out.
“Considering the overall situation in Korea, it is unlikely that the spread of Corona 19 will be easily broken,” he said. “It can be said that the infectious reproductive index is low, but it is still above 1 and it means that the spread is continuing.”
He added, “There may be more cases in the future that lead to an additional infection of hundreds of cases in which one confirmed person is infected.”