IMF Korean Economy Upward Prospect (PG)▶ Click here for a larger view
It is predicted that this year’s global economic growth rate will greatly exceed that of Korea.
It can be interpreted that this is because Korea has been preemptive of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shock caused by Corona 19, while major countries recorded a large negative growth last year.
According to the Ministry of Strategy and Finance on the 6th, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted that the world economy will grow by 6.0% this year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) announced today.
This is a 0.5 percentage point higher than the previous forecast (5.5%) announced in January.
The forecast for the growth rate of developed countries this year was raised to 5.1%, and for emerging and developing countries to 6.7%, respectively.
In Korea, too, this year’s view of the economy has risen, but the growth forecast itself is relatively low at 3.6%.
This is below the forecast for the global growth rate by 2.4 percentage points.
Compared to individual countries such as the United States (6.4%), France (5.8%), the United Kingdom (5.3%), and China (8.4%), the difference is even wider.
However, the Ministry of Information and Communication explained that this is because the Korean economy has resisted the Corona 19 shock relatively well last year.
The more countries whose growth rate declined sharply last year, the more likely the growth rate to rebound this year.
For example, the group of advanced countries is expected to grow 5.1% this year after recording negative growth of -4.7% last year.
The eurozone’s forecast for this year’s growth rate itself is 4.4%, which is higher than that of Korea, but last year’s growth rate was only -6.6%, so it is expected that it will not actually recover the level of GDP in 2019.
On the other hand, Korea is expected to grow 3.6% this year after negative growth of -1.0% last year.
Considering the scale of GDP in 2019 as 100, Korea’s GDP this year will be 102.6, exceeding the level before the corona crisis.
Of the 20 major countries (G20) this year, only three advanced countries expected to exceed the GDP level in 2019 were the United States, Korea, and Australia.
Park Min-joo, head of the International Monetary Team of the Ministry of Equipment, said, “A significant number of other countries experienced a sharp decline in GDP last year, and a high growth rate was expected this year as a result of that reflection.” It is expected to continue,” he said.
In addition, the faster-than-expected recovery of the global economy is expected to positively affect the Korean economy, which is highly dependent on exports.
In particular, the ministry predicted that the recovery of exports will be further strengthened in the future as the US and China, which are the largest export destinations, show solid growth trends.
Earlier, the IMF announced in its annual consultation report released last month that it will raise its forecast for Korea’s economic growth to 3.6%, a 0.5 percentage point increase from the previous year, reflecting the economic recovery and supplementary effects of major countries this year.
This is the highest level among the government’s estimates (3.2%), as well as major institutions such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) (3.3%) and the Bank of Korea (3.0%).
However, the forecast for next year’s growth rate was adjusted down 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecast to 2.8%.
[연합뉴스]
Copyrights ⓒ Yonhap News. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution prohibited