This year’s apartment sales market is’local’… Best apartment price outlook

Amid the prevailing outlook that house prices will rise in the new year, the estimates of apartment sales prices in the provinces successively broke record highs.

An analysis suggests that prices may rise and market uncertainty as the sales trend is stronger this year, centering on local apartments, where the rise has been relatively modest.

In particular,’niche speculation’ is being concentrated in apartments with an official price of less than 100 million won, which can avoid the multi-home acquisition tax and requirements.

◇ All-time high in the nationwide sales outlook… Local roads beyond the 120 line

According to the statistics of the monthly KB housing price trend on the 3rd, the national KB real estate sales price forecast index as of December last year was 124.5, the highest since the start of a related survey in April 2013.

This index is a numerical representation of the real estate brokerage’s forecast for apartment prices within the next three months. If it is above 100, it means that there are many opinions that rise and fall below 100.

This figure was 124.2 in Seoul, 128.4 in Gyeonggi, 123.3 in Incheon, and 126.2 in the metropolitan area in December of last year, up 2.9 to 10.0 points from the previous month (November). Although the metropolitan area is not a record high, there are high expectations that apartment prices in the metropolitan area will rise this year.

In the case of five regional metropolitan cities (Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, Daejeon, and Ulsan), it soared to 130.1, a record high in November last year. However, it decreased slightly to 122.8 in December.

Excluding the metropolitan area and metropolitan cities, this figure reached an all-time high when it exceeded 120 for the first time in December last year (122.7).

The forecast index of Chungnam (124.7), Jeonbuk (121.7), and Gyeongbuk (131.4) reached record highs, driving the rise.

This increase in the nationwide sales price forecast index has a greater impact on the number of people who want to buy more than those who want to sell the house.

Last month, the nationwide KB housing purchase advantage index reached 103.4, surpassing the benchmark (100) for the first time in 18 years since February 2002.

If the index exceeds 100 within the range of 0 to 200, it means’there are many buyers’, and if it is less than 100, it means’there are many sellers’.

Last month, the buying advantage index was higher in order of Daegu (128.8), Gwangju (113.4), Sejong (111.5), Daejeon (110.8), and Seoul (108.3). The purchase advantage index of the five major metropolitan cities in the region recorded a slight adjustment to 106.4 in December from 106.5, a record high in November last year.

In other regions, Gyeongnam (106.6), Chungnam (96.3), and Jeonbuk (77.7) reached 97.0, breaking the record high in the buying advantage index. It is the first time in nine years since 2011 that the purchase advantage index of other regions reached 90.

In the metropolitan area, Gyeonggi-do’s December purchase advantage index increased significantly from November (88.6) to 107.3, exceeding the reference point in 14 years since 2006.

Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, said, “There is a possibility that this year, there is a possibility that a’circulation sale’ market will appear, in which the purchase trend is overheating, centering on local apartments, which have been considered to have been relatively small in the rise in sales prices. Said that this is because the jeonse price ratio (the ratio of the jeonse price to the trading price) is relatively higher than in the metropolitan area.”

◇ Sweep apartments below 100 million won in public price… “The price has risen like the stock price”

In the midst of this, recently, speculative demand has been rushing to apartments with an official price of less than 100 million won.

The government strengthened the acquisition tax rate for multi-homed people through measures against real estate on July 10 last year, but it stipulated that housing with an official price not exceeding 100 million won is under the acquisition tax.

In the area subject to adjustment, the second homeowner must pay an acquisition tax of 8% when buying an additional house, and the third homeowner pay an acquisition tax of 12%. Acquisition tax in areas subject to non-adjustment is also from 1 to 3% of the acquisition tax to the 2nd house, as before, but 8% from the 3rd house and 12% from the 4th house.

However, if the published price is less than 100 million won, the acquisition tax is not excessive even for multi-homed people, so only 1% (1.1% including rural special tax and local education tax) needs to be borne as before.

Given this situation, multi-homeowners”niche speculation’ for apartments with an official price of 100 million won or less is rampant.

Yoo Geo-sang, co-representative of real estate big data company’Asil’ (apartment real estate transaction price), said, “As apartments with a publicly priced less than 100 million won, where there is no reason for a lot of transactions in normal times, the market price continues to rise.”

Tanhyeon-dong, Ilsanseo-gu, Goyang-si, Gyeonggi-do,’Tanhyeon Village Booyeong 7 Complex’ currently has a market price of 180 million won for an exclusive area of ​​50.28 square meters and 200 million won for 59.86 square meters. The listed prices for these housing types are less than 100 million won.

Compared to just before the July 10 countermeasures came out, it increased by more than 30 million won, and in November of last year, 26 transactions were made in a month.

Apartments in Seobuk-gu, Cheonan-si, Chungnam and Seongsan-gu, Changwon-si, Gyeongsangnam-do, were tied up as regulated areas in the middle of last month, and were in a state of lull for a while, but they were sold as if they were flying.

‘Jugong Apartment Complex 5’in Seongjeong-dong, Seobuk-gu, Cheonan-si, is composed of a small area of ​​less than 59m2 for all housing types, so the public price is less than 100 million won.

A representative of a nearby real estate agency said, “Some people bought 10 houses at once,” and said, “The smallest pyeong (39.3㎡) was the most sought after item and the price rose first.”

Also, the market price of 49.83m2 for’Euna Apartment’ in Gaeum-dong, Seongsan-gu, Changwon-si, Gyeongnam, which has a public price of less than 100 million won, was from 170 million to 180 million won just before the July 10 measures came out. Jumped over. In the same month alone, a whopping 34 transactions were made.

The president of my brokerage company just explained, “As investors sweep things, the price has changed day by day,” and “the apartment price has risen like the stock price.”

The government excluded houses from the regulation, saying that it is difficult to see houses with an official price of 100 million won or less as a target for speculation, but speculation to find blind spots has another regulatory balloon effect that makes the market unstable.

Senior Expert Park Won-gap said, “If speculation demand is concentrated in low-cost apartments, the residential burden for end users can increase.” “In the region, the population is shrinking and the local economy is not activated, so it is difficult for low-priced apartments to continue rising, and the price formed by bubbles is recovering itself. There is also a concern that it will not work,” he pointed out.

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