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[이데일리 이윤화 기자] Even with Corona 19, exports are showing an increase for three consecutive months on an average daily basis, but the economy felt by companies has worsened. Although the number one export item, semiconductors, etc. are doing well, the automobile industry, which is the second largest item, is struggling internally and externally. Overseas, due to the spread of Corona 19, exports declined as inventory robbery began in earnest rather than securing auto stocks, and in the domestic market, the trade union strike of automakers was hit. Even automotive suppliers are facing a cold wind with concerns about profit decline.
車, exports and experienced economics also worsened.
According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, exports in December recorded $5.11 billion, an increase of 12.6% from the same month last year. It is the highest of all December exports. It was only 26 months that exports rose to double digits. All six IT related items including semiconductors (30.0%), displays (28.0%), wireless communication devices (39.8%), home appliances (23.4%), computers (14.7%), and secondary batteries (7.6%) have been exported for 2 consecutive months. Increased. Accordingly, daily average exports increased by 5.4% in October, 6.4% in November, and 7.9% in December.
However, during the same period, the sensational economy of companies was frozen. The BSI for all industries in December announced by the Bank of Korea was 75, down 3 points from the previous month. In particular, the manufacturing industry’s BSI fell 3 points to 82, and declined after 7 months.
Overall, exports are on the rise, but it is analyzed that the automobile industry, which has a high contribution to the growth of GDP after semiconductors, has suddenly deteriorated. In fact, automobile exports, which had increased for three months from September, turned to a 4.4% decline in December. This is due to the fact that local auto stores in the US and Europe, which are the first and second largest importers of Korean automobiles, started to steal inventory. This is the aftermath of a slowdown in the movement to secure automobile supplies as demand for automobile use declines due to the spread of Corona 19 and fewer new cars are sold. In addition, as the labor strike of domestic automakers such as GM Korea and Kia Motors prolongs the strike, the automobile industry is struggling both inside and outside. As the automobile industry deteriorated, exports fell 7.8%, even to steel, where the volume of automobile plates decreased.
The experienced economy felt by the automobile industry was also revealed in the BSI index. The auto industry’s BSI was 79 in December, down 16 points from the previous month. It is on the decline in three months. The BSI of the primary metal industry used in auto parts and materials also fell 1 point to 88.
An official from the Bank of Korea explained, “The BSI of the manufacturing industry in December of last year turned down after 7 months, which was largely affected by the fall in exports of automobiles, parts, and materials, and the strike by the automakers’ union that continued from the beginning of this year.”
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Even at the beginning of the year, the industry is not bright… BSI further decline
The outlook for the new year’s economy is also not bright. As a result of the BSI (Business Survey Index) survey conducted by the Korea Economic Research Institute from December 15th to 22nd last year for 600 companies based on sales, the overall forecast for January was 91.7. It fell 7.2 points from last December (98.9). The BSI for the automobile industry in January announced by the BOK is expected to decline further from December to 78.
This means that there is a high possibility that automobile exports and deterioration in the domestic market will continue until the beginning of the year. The Korea Automobile Industry Association predicted that this year’s annual automobile production will decrease by 11.4% from last year to 3.5 million units. However, in the case of electric vehicles, exports also increased by 9.2% in December, an increase of 39.9% last year alone. This is in contrast to the 13.1% decline in total automobile exports.
Professor Seong Tae-yoon of Yonsei University, a professor of economics at Yonsei University, said, “Recently, semiconductor and ICT companies gained corona 19 reflective gains, driving export performance, but the situation of the rest of the export companies, including the automobile industry, has worsened. The trend has turned to a downtrend, but there is still high economic uncertainty, such as a decrease in net profit of subcontractors due to the prolonged Corona 19.”