The reason why there is no bomb for sale despite the surge in the ownership tax… “It’s hard to buy, but it’s harder to sell”

Enter 2021.03.17 17:00

Was there an inflection point in the Seoul apartment market? Since the government announced the ‘2021 Public Apartment Price Proposal,’ which contains a 19.08% increase in the nationwide public apartment price from last year, voices are growing at the same time that some people are expecting a decline in house prices. It seems that it is also being sold on the market, but experts still often see it as difficult to significantly lower the house price.

◇ Although the transaction volume decreased and the selling price became stronger… “Not enough to lead the market change”

According to the real estate industry on the 17th, a YouTuber, famous for falling house prices in Seoul, posted a video titled “Seoul apartments crash” and “Multi-home speculators-really upset” on the 15th. He said, “Not only the rise in trading and jeonse prices, but also the trading volume are falling more and more, and buying sentiment has also fallen by 2030 now,” he said. “A decline is expected.”

In fact, in the real estate market, there are signs that prices can be expected to fall, such as slowing transactions and increasing sales. According to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the nationwide housing transaction volume in January was 9,679 cases, down about 35.4% from the previous month (14,281 cases), and about 10.5% from the same month last year (10,1334 cases). In January, Seoul’s housing transaction volume was 12,275 cases, down 24.2% from the previous month (11,190 cases), and about 27.1% from the same month last year (16,834 cases).

There are signs of weakening buying and stronger selling. According to KB Kookmin Bank Real Estate, the Seoul Buying Advantage Index fell below 100. As of the announcement on the 12th, Seoul’s Buy Advantage Index recorded 90.3, down 5.9 points from the previous week (96.2).

The buying advantage index is within the range of 0 to 200. If the index exceeds 100, it means’there are many buyers’, and if it is less than 100, it means’there are many sellers’. Below the reference point of 100, the market shifted from the’many buyers’ market to the’many sellers’ market. KB Real Estate said, “After falling below 100 in 12 weeks since December last year, it is below 100 for two consecutive weeks.”

However, experts looking at the market interpret that there are no signs of a fall in prices. This is not the case when viewed from the perspective of’is the amount of sales being poured out enough to shock the market?’

KB Kookmin Bank Senior Real Estate Expert Park Hap-soo said, “It is true that there is a burden due to the excessive rise in housing prices in the market, and it is true that the buying sentiment has weakened, but it is not easy to adjust the price because the sale is not pouring out enough to shock the market. “I said. He added, “The situation in which housing price adjustments are not easy, such as increasing the rented price while the number of occupants in Seoul and the metropolitan area decreased compared to the previous year, is not changing.”

According to Jikbang, the planned number of apartments in the nation in March is 14,700 households in 22 complexes, of which only 5598 households in the metropolitan area. Even in April, the planned amount of occupancy in the metropolitan area is limited to 200 households.

◇ The tax burden for multi-homed people has increased, but… “It’s difficult to sell because it’s blocked by regression”

As the official price of apartment houses nationwide this year rises by an average of 19.08% from last year, the tax burden of multi-households with two or more houses as well as one-house holders living in the metropolitan area will increase. All. Ahead of the tax base date in June, multi-homeowners, whose tax burdens have increased, are pouring out their owned houses, which leads to lower prices.

However, real estate experts who meet a lot of multi-homed people in the field say that the concerns of multi-homed people are already over. Myung-sook Ahn, head of the Real Estate Support Center of Woori Bank, said, “The multi-homed person who felt the tax burden did asset arrangements such as giving and selling to their children until last year.” “I don’t think the sale will come out enough to affect,” he said.

Experts say that the government’s precipitation tax, comprehensive real estate tax, and transfer tax all at once through the July 10 real estate countermeasures last year is preventing sales from leaving. Commissioner Hap-soo Park said, “From the seller’s point of view, the situation has changed since one year ago because the seller had to bear the heavy duty of the transfer tax, and the situation has changed.” .

It is also predicted that the tax burden of multi-homeowners will only increase the side effect of rising rents without increasing sales. Joon-Seok Ko, adjunct professor at Dongguk University’s Graduate School of Law, said, “As the calculation of the holding tax begins, the calculation method to pass it on to tenants is in effect, which will eventually lead to the burden of homeless tenants.” “It seems difficult to adjust prices until measures to increase the supply of housing to the market quickly are actually applied.”