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Bigger’adjustment’
According to the market point on the 20th, the KOSPI closed at 3114.55 on this day, an increase of 21.89 points (0.71%) points compared to the previous trading day. After closing at an all-time high at 3152.18 on the 8th, they are taking their place. This year, the KOSPI is expected to enter a global bull market. Corporate profit growth is expected to be record-breaking, and positive factors such as the inflow of foreign funds to emerging countries, abundant liquidity such as overflowing personal funds, and a major shift in industrial structure are intertwined. Therefore, we believe that there is no need to be very concerned about the current adjustment.
However, considering the whole year, it seems that it would be better to postpone the purchase point. First of all, there is a possibility that a slightly larger adjustment will proceed.
From November last year to the first week of January this year, the KOSPI rose 39.0% in about two months. As of this day, the 60 and 120-day moving average separations are 115.17% and 123.07%, respectively. Until the 11th, the separation of the 60th was over 120%. Both of the two ratings exceeded 120% during the third boom and the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s. That is, the current KOSPI rise is in a hurry.
3 During that boom, it succeeded in trending upward. The KOSPI climbed steadily for a long period of time and settled at 1000 points. There were adjustments in the middle. From 100 points in 1985 to 1000 points in 1990, it appeared three times in large numbers, all when the 60-day moving average was broken. If this trend is reproduced, the recent sideways bond of the KOSPI can be seen as a precursor to the correction.
In fact, factors that could trigger the adjustment have not yet emerged. The crisis is expected to come when the US and China (G2) begin to reap the liquidity they infuse to overcome the Corona 19 crisis. Short selling, which is worrisome in the domestic stock market, may pose a more fundamental threat than resumption.
Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, said, “It is difficult to capture the correction in terms of the economy and earnings because the fundamental estimates will be further raised in the first half of this year.”
“We will communicate so that the Federal Reserve System (Fed and Fed) does not cause market shock as much as possible, but it will inevitably have no choice but to give a shock to the valuation.” “China, which escaped from the Corona 19 crisis, has also been striving to manage debt. Because of the spill, the liquidity window can be tightened during the first half of the year, but I cannot know the exact timing.”
Bigger’power’
The second reason for delaying the purchase point is that we can confirm a full-fledged recovery of the global real economy after Corona 19 from around the second quarter.
Although the KOSPI is currently maintaining the 3000 line, it is evaluated as having no special power. Based on the basis of the spot futures, it is explained that only mechanical movements caused by foreigners’ arbitrage trading are captured.
Kim Yong-gu, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, “The KOSPI is being driven only by thorough supply-demand mechanisms and trading logic, not by issues, so there is no need to interpret it. The key is to move the market, the weight is to stand right.”
Weight loss is a confirmation of economic recovery. One of the indicators that can measure the global economy, the Global Economic Momentum Index (a weighted average of the Citi Economic Surprise Index in major countries divided by the market capitalization of each country) has a cyclical nature, and is expected to hit the bottom in March and rise. In March, a two-way meeting in China that could have a big impact on the global economy is also scheduled.
Researcher Kim said, “China’s economic stimulus and bicyclical policy response before and after the two meetings in March will be possible as the main driving force behind the global economic momentum direction beyond China.” “It is believed that foreigners’ KOSPI 200 futures 60-day cumulative net purchase contract increase. It can be confirmed.”