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Regulation continued and supply shortage
National house prices and jeonse continue to rise
Gangnam, Seoul is expected to expand
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Based on KB statistics, the national house price in 2020 rose 8.35%. It is an all-time high since 2006. National jeonse prices also rose by 6.54%, the largest increase in nine years. Then, what will the house price be in 2021?
As a result of our survey of experts, most of them agreed that the sale price will rise regardless of the region, such as Seoul as well as the metropolitan area and regions. There is a difference in the extent of the increase, but some also suggested that it could be higher than in 2020. Among these, most of the analysis that the jeonse market is expected to rise to the level of 2020 in all regions. It is an analysis that the jeonse turmoil can stimulate trading prices.
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◇ The price gap will narrow, and Gangnam will rise by 2021 = Mi-hwa Im, a professor of real estate at Jeonju University, said, “The current supply and demand problem in the Seoul housing market is the structure that determines the price.” “Supply does not happen overnight. The trading price is expected to rise by 2020.” “Especially in the Gangnam area, where prices rose less in 2020, mainly due to the rise in mid- to low-priced housing. In 2021, as the rate of increase in the Gangnam region increases, the housing market structure will be reorganized again.”
Myung-sook Ahn, head of the Real Estate Investment Support Center of Woori Bank, said, “As the regulation continues and the market situation remains the same, it will continue to rise. Even if the rise is less than in 2020, the rise will increase further from the price that has already risen. The difference is that in the case of 2021, Gangnam can increase the rise. “In the case of local areas, the number of occupants is decreasing and the price of jeonse is rising in most regions,” he said.
KB Real Estate Chief Expert Park Won-gap also thought that the jeonse price would be the biggest variable in the house price. Senior Expert Park said, “If you look at the current jeonse crisis and the trend of panic buying in your 30s, mid- to low-priced homes may be relatively stronger than the high-end market.” I saw it. Regarding the provinces, he said, “There are many places that have not risen yet.”
Sim Gyo-eon, a professor at Konkuk University’s Department of Real Estate, said, “The background of the rise in house prices is a big jeonse, but considering the level of house prices that have already risen or the economic impact from the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), it may be difficult to increase overall.” We are expecting a weak consolidation of small and medium-sized cities and a strong consolidation nationwide.”
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◇ “The Jeonsei-gun continues” Lee Gu-dong= “It should be noted that 2021 will not be significantly different from 2020,” said Jihae Yoon, Senior Researcher at Real Estate 114. He said, “In particular, the jeonse price can rise more than twice as much as the trading price,” he said. “If the jeonse price increase rate starts to outpace the trading price increase rate, there is bound to be a limit to the stabilization of the trading market.” Manager Ahn said, “The total price of the property in Seoul, the metropolitan area, and the region will increase more than in 2020.”
Deok-rye Kim, head of the housing policy research department at the Housing Industry Research Institute, said, “If tenants who have requested renewal rights and renewed contracts come back two to four years later, there is a lot of room for problems in the market.” The gap has widened. He ordered that the government should look two to four years later and consider mid- to long-term measures to solve this problem.”
If so, when would I like to arrange my home?
As the sales price and jeonse are expected to rise together, experts say that end-users considering buying a home should buy a house in 2021 rather than wait for adjustment. Senior Researcher Yoon said, “Because the trend does not change, it is correct to live in the first quarter. To be precise, it would be better in the first half of the year when multi-homed sales were released.” Senior Expert Park also advised, “In the case of mid- to low-priced housing, since it is a market that is directly affected by the jeonse crisis, you can buy it at any time.”
Manager Ahn said, “Because the house price can be adjusted in a year or two, it is not easy to answer the question of whether it is right to buy now. However, the recent increase in real estate transaction costs is that the price of the house is not easily sold after purchase. He said, “If you need a house, it’s better to live now because it can act as a downward rigidity.” Director Kim and Professor Shim recommended preparing my house through subscription rather than existing housing. / Reporter Kim Heung-rok, Yang Ji-yoon, and Kwon Hyuk-jun [email protected]
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