“The possibility of the KOSPI 2800 line is low…If you have cash, you need to buy more”

[이데일리 고준혁 기자] The Kospi is evaluated as having entered the phase of adjusting the game stop foot. However, as fundamentals are not shaken, it is expected that it will not fall below the 2800 line. If there is a change in movement in the volatility index, the interest rate between Shanghai banks in China (Shibor), and the net buying trend of foreigners in KOSPI, it is advised that it can be judged as a sign of the end of a’short’ adjustment.

Dae-Joon Han, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, “Concerns about a bear market are excessive and will only be a short-term adjustment market.” ‘

“However, the possibility of a further decline is low, so the intraday supply and demand situation may temporarily fall below 2900, but we do not think about the market below 2800,” he said. “In order for such a trend to come out, pessimism such as a bubble burst must come out.” Added.

The main reason for the short-term correction is that there has been no change in factors such as global economic recovery and earnings improvement, which are the reasons for the existing bull market. In order to enter a bear market, signs that the bubble will extinguish, but the possibility of the fundamentals shaking in an environment of abundant liquidity is estimated to be low.

The reason for the recent market shake is considered to be the issue of tightening the game stop and China. Gamestop is having an adverse effect on the sentiment of the market, and we believe that there may be adjustment pressure until uncertainty is resolved. In most cases of concerns about monetary tightening in China, it is analyzed as a factor that has been resolved over time because it has been supplying funds to the market with a high probability from two weeks before the Lunar New Year, and it seems that the government will avoid the shocking austerity.

The end of the short-term adjustment can be judged by a turnaround in foreign buying, volatility indices, and stabilization of China’s market rate.

Researcher Kim said, “Currently, the volatility index (VIX) and VVIX (VIX volatility index) are above the 1-year average, but if it is less than 25% of the 1-year average value based on VIX, and the VVIX is less than 100%, it can be seen as a stable zone.” The inter-bank interest rate of Shanghai surged to 3.8% on the 14th, and interest rates for the next day are also on the rise on the 7th, so it is necessary to confirm the trend of decline.”

He added, “In China, the short-term interest rate has reversed the short-term interest rate due to the short-term liquidity crunch. If the liquidity supply problem is alleviated in the future and the interest rate reversal is resolved, the stock market will end this adjustment and rebound.”

Researcher Kim also said, “Because it has already fallen close to 10% from its peak, we insist on maintaining the existing position until the rebound resumes.” “If there is enough cash, I think it is necessary to buy more, but this decline is a trend due to fundamentals. Rather, if there is a temporary shake due to some supply and demand problems, it is because it is necessary to use it strategically at the risk of discomfort.”