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| Candidate Ahn Chul-soo, Mayor of the National Assembly, held an emergency conference on the morning of the 19th and decided to fully accept the method of unifying the power of the people Kim Jong-in and Oh Se-hoon. The photo shows Candidate Oh (left) and Candidate Ahn shaking hands after finishing the unification vision presentation held at The Plus Studio in Yeongdeungpo, Seoul on the 15th. 2021.3.19/News1 © News1 National Company Promotion Foundation |
The unification of working-level negotiations, which had fallen into a stalemate as candidate Oh Se-hoon and National Assembly candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, who ran for the 4/7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election, agreed on a poll on the 20th.
The two candidates’ working-level negotiations said that afternoon that afternoon, two public opinion polls had agreed on a plan that reflects 50% of suitability and competitiveness. A total of 3,200 samples were surveyed, 1,600 per one polling agency, and it was decided to use 100% wireless security numbers.
As the two sides are concentrating on the method of polling, the attention of the politicians is focused on the’point of time’ when the final agreement is issued. The working-level negotiation group decided to continue the final negotiations at 10:00 am on the next day (21st) to confirm the question and phrase of the poll.
If the working-level negotiation group announces the final draft this morning, the poll will start on the afternoon of Sunday, the weekend. On the other hand, if the final draft comes out in the afternoon or evening, the poll is likely to start on Monday, a weekday.
Poll experts believe that the difference in response rates between weekdays and weekends in 100% wireless phone surveys is small, but it may have some influence on response rates by political orientation.
An official from a polling agency who requested anonymity said, “Experientially, weekend surveys are relatively high in middle-class participation, and the influence of the elderly is less.” An official of another polling agency also analyzed that “the response rate on weekends and weekdays varies depending on the job. Officers with relatively many middle-class people respond less to weekdays than on weekends.”
In the political world, as the two candidates have different main support groups, and the two candidates are fighting within the margin of error in the approval rating, there is a possibility that the working-level negotiating groups of both sides will have a fierce nerve war with the viewpoint of drawing a final agreement.
As a result of a survey of 1030 adult men and women in Seoul on the 13th to 14th by Real Meter commissioned by Munhwa Ilbo, candidate Oh recorded 39.3% and candidate Ahn 32.8% in the virtual single candidate for opposition.
In the approval rate by ideological orientation, Candidate Oh selected △conservative (57.8%) △moderate (38.4%) △progressive (25.3%), and Ahn had △conservative (25.3%) △moderate (39.1%) △progress (28.2%), respectively. Recorded. Candidate Oh has overwhelmingly high approval ratings from conservatives, and Ahn’s slightly ahead of the middle and advanced levels.
Accordingly, there is a possibility that Candidate Ahn’s working-level negotiating group will use a strategy to close the working-level negotiations as quickly as possible, and Candidate Oh’s working-level negotiating group may use a strategy of delaying settlement for reasons of’detail’.
An official from a public opinion polling agency said, “Candidate Oh and Ahn show a gap between the decimal points in various public opinion polls.” .
On the other hand, the sample error of the polls cited in the article is 95% and the confidence level is ±3.1%p. For more information, refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Committee.