The increase in single-person households has increased the house price? Statistics read upside down by President Wen

President Moon Jae-in’s remarks that the population decreased, but the number of households increased, and housing supply was insufficient. At a New Year’s press conference on the 18th, President Moon said, “Even though the population of Korea decreased last year, a whopping 610,000 households increased.” “As the number of households soared, demand exceeded the predicted housing supply, and it encouraged real estate prices to rise.” .

It means that many people did not live in one house but were split into single-person households, resulting in a shortage of housing and an increase in house prices. However, statistics and expert analysis are the opposite of President Moon’s remarks.

As President Moon said, it is true that the number of single-person households is increasing. However, an important’fact’ is missing from this remark. It is true that the number of single-person households has not increased significantly since the Moon Jae-in administration.

According to the National Statistical Office, the increase in single-person households compared to the previous year was not significantly different between 2016 (19,4175 people) during the Park Geun-hye administration and 2017 (22,1062 households) and 2018 (22,9917 households) during the Moon Jae-in administration. . Although the growth rate expanded in 2019 (29,8922 households), it is not so much different from the previous one. Last year’s single-person household count has yet to come out.

In order for President Moon’s remarks to be correct, it must work regardless of the regime in which the composition of’increase in single-person households → increase in purchase of single-person households → supply shortage against demand → increase in house prices’. However, during the Park Geun-hye administration, when the number of single-person households increased by nearly 200,000 per year, house prices did not rise as much as they are now. This means that the Moon Jae-in government cannot blame the increased house price on the increased single-person household.

The statistics cited directly by President Moon also have a problem. The basis for the increase in the number of households mentioned is not the statistics of single-person households by the National Statistical Office, but statistics on the resident registration population of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security. The Ministry of Public Administration and Security said in the ‘2020 Resident Registered Population Status Statistics’ released on the 3rd that the number of single-person households last year increased to 906,3362 households.

Last year, the total number of households increased by 61,1642 households, most of which is an increase in single-person households. Compared to the increase in the number of single-person households in 2019 (40,3095 households), it has increased significantly. In fact, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Administration and Security’s resident registration, the formula for’one person household = one household’ is not correct. This is because many households report separate generations even if they live together in one house.

“There are cases where households are separated because of school, work, and housing issues, although they live in one house and live in one house,” said Jeong Nam-soo, head of the Statistics Office’s Population Census Bureau. It comes out less.”

Some point out that the number of single-person households surged last year without a reason for the sudden increase in single-person households as an administrative illusion. It is analyzed that there have been many cases where the government deliberately separates households only for administrative purposes while giving real estate subscriptions or tax-related benefits to one household or one homeless person.

As can be seen from the statistics of the past government, the increase in single-person households does not necessarily increase the house price. What’s more important is how many single-person households who want to buy a house have increased. Originally, single-person households are not viewed as the main purchaser in the housing market. Since living alone and earning less income than multi-person households, it led to a class where demand for rentals rather than buying and selling.

According to the statistics on home ownership prepared by the National Statistical Office, the number of single-person households with houses in 2016 decreased by 4.9% compared to the previous year. That year, the number of single-person households increased by nearly 200,000, but their home purchases decreased.

It was the Moon Jae-in administration that changed the pattern. Since 2017, the number of single-person households has started to increase significantly. According to Statistics Korea’s housing ownership statistics, the proportion of single-person households with a house continued to increase in 2017 (6.7%), 2018 (6.1%), and 2019 (5.8%).

Experts criticize President Moon’s remarks on the basis of these statistics as being aligned with the reality in the opposite direction. It is pointed out that it is not that’the price of the house has risen due to the increase in the number of single-person households’ purchases’, but’there is an increase in the price of the house, so even single-person households (who did not buy a lot of houses before) jumped into the house purchase procession’.

Professor Kwon Dae-jung of the Department of Real Estate at Myongji University said, “Even if the number of single-person households increases, not all of them are buying houses, and it cannot be said that it has had a decisive effect on the increase in housing prices.” Rather, single-person households that were stimulated by the government’s real estate policy The president said the cause and effect were reversed because it seemed to be buying a house.”

Statistics support that the recent surge in house prices has led to a young single-person household’panic buying’. In fact, according to the Korea Real Estate Agency, the proportion of 30 apartments in Seoul apartment sales (71,734 cases) in 2019 was the highest with 28.8% (2691 cases). The younger age group under 30s has a high proportion of single-person households.

The increase in home ownership by single-person households is also affected by government real estate policies. It is an analysis that the number of single-person homeowners increased as multi-homed people chose donations to avoid excessive capital gains tax. In fact, when looking at the National Tax Statistics Yearbook of the National Tax Service, the number of buildings donated during the Moon Jae-in administration (17-19 years) (11,7175) increased significantly from that of the Park Geun-hye administration (14-16 years) (71,914).

Sejong = Reporter Kim Namjun [email protected]