The IMF slightly raises the global growth rate to 5.5% this year on vaccine effects… -3.5% last year (total)

Adjustment to reflect the effects of vaccine development and economic stimulus measures Corona 19 uncertainty still remains

“Last year’s growth rate, the worst contraction in the peace period since the Great Depression…2 Kyungwon will fly by 2025”

This year, 4.3% of developed countries, 6.3% of emerging and developing countries… Expected to grow 3.1% in Korea, 5.1% in the US, and 8.1% in China

(Washington = Yonhap News) Correspondent Ryu Ji-bok = The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected the global economic growth rate to reach 5.5% this year, slightly higher than the previous forecast, on the 26th (local time) thanks to vaccine development and economic stimulus effects.

Last year, the growth rate was estimated at -3.5% due to the epidemic of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19).

In its World Economic Outlook report released today, the IMF predicts that the global economy will grow 5.5% this year. This is 0.3 percentage points higher than the 5.2% forecast in October last year.

Next year’s economic growth rate remained at the previous forecast of 4.2%.

The IMF publishes forecasts for each country’s economic growth rate twice each year in April and October, and adjusts the forecasts for major countries in the revised reports released in January and July.

The IMF explained that the approval of multiple vaccines and the start of vaccination raised hopes for an end to the pandemic, and that better-than-expected economic indicators and additional policy support were the background for the upward revision.

However, he pointed out that there is a lot of work to be done in terms of medical and economic policies to ensure continuous recovery, saying that the surge in infection, including the COVID-19 mutation, new containment, logistics problems in vaccine distribution, and uncertainty are concerns.

The forecast for a high growth rate of over 5% this year is also a result of the base effect of the severe economic downturn last year.

The Washington Post said it will mark the year of the fastest growth since the 2010 rebound after the global financial crisis.

In the case of last year, which was hit by Corona 19, the global economy was estimated to have grown by 3.5%. However, with stronger-than-expected economic activity in the second half of last year, the contraction fell 0.9 percentage points from -4.4% in October last year.

Others, IMF chief economist Gopinas, evaluated last year’s growth rate as the worst economic contraction in terms of the peace period since the Great Depression in the 1930s.

In addition, even if the economy recovers, per capita income of more than 150 countries this year is expected to be lower than the level in 2019.

It is predicted that the total output from 2020 to 2025 will decrease by $22 trillion (4,320 trillion won in 2 lights) compared to the figures predicted before the pandemic pandemic.

By the end of the year, nearly 90 million people have fallen into extreme poverty and will offset the poverty reductions they have achieved over the past 20 years, according to the IMF’s analysis.

By region, developed countries are expected to grow 4.3% this year from -4.9% last year. This is an increase of 0.9 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points, respectively, from the -5.8% and 3.9% figures in the October forecast last year.

The growth rate of emerging and developing countries is expected to be -2.4% last year and 6.3% this year. As of last year’s October forecast, these figures were -3.3% and 6.0%, respectively.

By country, the US is expected to grow 5.1% this year from -3.4% last year, recovering its pre-Corona 19 level, and Japan is expected to grow 3.1% this year from -5.1% last year.

In the United States and Japan, large-scale economic stimulus measures have been a factor in increasing the growth rate. The US and Japan’s forecasts for this year’s growth rate were raised by 2.0 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, compared to the forecast in October last year.

On the other hand, major European countries such as France (-9.0%), Italy (-9.2%), Spain (-11.1%), and the United Kingdom (-10.0%) suffered a serious blow of around -10% last year, and this year’s growth forecast is also 3~ It is only in the 5% range, so it is expected that it will not recover to last year’s level.

The Euro region’s forecast for this year’s growth was 4.2%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous forecast.

China is expected to grow by 8.1% this year following 2.3% growth last year.

India is expected to grow 11.5% this year from -8.0% last year.

Korea’s forecast for this year’s growth rate has been revised up 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. In addition, last year’s growth rate was -1.1%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous forecast.

Global trade is expected to decline by 9.6% last year and grow by 8.1% this year.

The IMF said, “The strength of recovery will vary greatly from country to country depending on accessibility to medical care, the effect of policy support, and the structural characteristics of the crisis.”

“Strong multilateral cooperation is essential for infectious disease control,” he stressed the need to ensure universal distribution of vaccines, promote access to affordable treatments, and rebalance debt in high-debt countries, including low-income countries.

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2021/01/27 00:49 sent