In the 9th Basic Plan for Electric Power Supply and Demand, the government maintains the stance of de-nuclear power and coal de-coal.
On the 24th, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy held an online public hearing and disclosed the details of the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan.
According to the government’s 9th Basic Power Supply and Demand Plan for 15 years from 2020 to 2034, 30 coal power plants with an operating life of 30 years will be abolished and replaced with LPG power generation. There is a content that decreases from the period to 17.
During this period, the capacity of new and renewable energy generation facilities increases by nearly four times.
Through this plan, the government plans to strongly promote the gradual reduction of nuclear power plants and drastic abolition of coal-fired power generation. In addition, it is trying to maintain a stable power supply posture through expansion of renewable energy and LNG power generation according to the Green New Deal.
However, there are many flaws in the government’s 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan. In fact, the’Professor’s Council seeking Rationalization of Energy Policy’ (Egyohyeop) urged to review the plan from the beginning.
The University of Education is a group of experts in the field of energy.It was launched on March 1, 2018 with 217 professors from 58 universities across the country, and 225 members from 61 universities are active.
The Ekyo Council criticized the public hearing held on the 24th, saying, “The planning of a public hearing that will become unrecognizable in the midst of Christmas and the end of the year is to ignore the importance of public hearing in establishing the national electricity supply and demand plan.”
In relation to the ‘9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand’, which has been disclosed, the Ekyo-hyup said, “The cost that must be planned in advance, such as subsidy, auxiliary power generation facility expansion and maintenance, operation, transmission and distribution network expansion, power storage, etc. It is not possible to estimate the extent of the future electricity rate hike.”
When the 9th Basic Plan for Power Supply and Demand, announced this time, is promoted, the three biggest problems arise. Electricity rate hikes, unstable power supply and demand, and carbon neutral vision
In terms of cost, as the proportion of low-cost nuclear power generation and coal-fired power generation is lowered and the proportion of LNG and renewable energy, which are expensive to generate electricity, increases rapidly, it is expected that an increase in electricity rates will be inevitable.
The cost of renewable energy generation is gradually lowering due to the advancement of technology, and there is a prospect that the price of LNG is lower than that of coal due to the recent Corona 19 incident, and there is a prospect that the factor of raising the electricity rate will not be large. In addition, LNG prices linked to international oil prices are also unstable as it is difficult to determine how many years the low oil price will continue.
According to the plan, renewable energy will nearly quadruple from 20.1GW this year to 77.8GW in 2034.
However, renewable energy has the disadvantage that the amount of power generation is not constant. Typically, solar power generation can only be generated when the sun is floating, and the amount of power generation varies according to the weather. In Korea, four seasons are distinct, so the amount of power generation varies according to the season. Recently, a study was also published showing that the amount of power generation decreased due to fine dust.
In this way, renewable energy becomes an unstable factor in power supply and demand when de-nuclear power plants and coal de-coal are simultaneously promoted as excessive or under-powered generation occurs due to jagged power generation.
Some point out that it is contrary to the carbon-neutral vision announced by President Moon Jae-in. This is because the dependence on LNG power generation, which generates a lot of carbon in the aftermath of the nuclear power plant, is bound to increase.
Electrification of energy and non-carbonization of electricity production are of the utmost importance to achieve carbon neutrality.
This is also the US’s 2050 carbon neutral strategy as declared by US President-elect Biden. So, for the sake of 2050 carbon neutrality, President-elect Biden set a goal to cover 100% of power generation with carbon-free power by 2035, which is faster than that.
The 9th electricity supply and demand plan includes the forecast of electricity demand until 2034. Assuming an annual growth rate of about 1%, the target power demand for 2034 is presented as 102.5GW.
This is based on an increase rate lower than the annual average increase in electricity demand of 1.3% assumed in the 8th electricity supply and demand plan. This plan is contrary to the situation in which the dependence on LNG power generation, which generates a lot of carbon, is inevitably increased, and with this calculation, the 2050 carbon neutrality cannot be met with this power demand forecast.
In response, the EKTU said, “The GHG reduction target is following the existing target, so it is directly opposed to carbon neutrality. We are simply replacing coal with gas without reviewing rational alternatives for GHG reduction. One gas will also go through a vicious cycle that must be abolished sequentially by 2050.”
If the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand is promoted, the eKyohyup shall present the estimated amount of electricity bills.
Propose a long-term plan for the expansion and abolition of gas power generation in the future according to the achievement of carbon neutrality.
As an alternative to achieving the GHG reduction target, compare and present the amount of GHG reduction and required cost when using and not using nuclear power.
•The achievement of carbon neutrality and the 9th power supply and demand plan should show that
• Disclosing the contents of the strategic environmental impact assessment of the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan and the opinion of the Ministry of Environment.
The Ministry of Industry and Industry should express its official position on whether to resume construction of Shinhanul 3 and 4
Demanded etc.
The Kyokyo said, “If there is no sincere answer to the important inquiries and demands listed above, the 9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan should be regarded as a plan that is implemented by ignoring the necessary public administration procedures as a national plan.”