[레벨업 한국증시] <상>Investment markets seen by capital market leaders
‘Priceless investment’ only in volatile stocks
Diversification of assets to make steady profits
Although the inflow of the stock market will decrease next year,
KOSPI will settle beyond 3,000P
viewer
This year’s stock market has been a drama throughout the year. The new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) led to a plunge of fear, but thanks to the propaganda of technology and the emergence of’Donghak ants’, the trend was almost twice as high as the bottom. Although it was a common phenomenon in global stock markets, the Korean stock market in particular was evaluated as an upgrade of the market with an unprecedented strong money move of personal funds. Leaders in the domestic capital market are surprised at the Donghak ants who have grown to lead the stock market this year, and advised that efforts to diversify investment assets and manage risks are necessary in order to achieve steady profits in the long term. In the next year, the intensity of their market capital inflow to the stock market will be slower than this year, but it is predicted that it will not be difficult for the KOSPI to exceed 3,000 points.
In a survey conducted by the Seoul Economic Daily on the 30th of the ‘2021 Korean Stock Market Forecast’ survey, major domestic securities companies such as Mirae Asset Daewoo, Korea Investment & Securities, NH Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities, and Financial Investment Association, asset managers, and CEO 23 Capital market leaders stressed that in order for Donghak ants to become the leading forces in the domestic stock market, efforts to diversify investment assets are needed above all else. Among the respondents, 29.2% pointed out the importance of diversified investment, and 20.8% of leaders cited expansion of indirect investment and risk management capability respectively. It is pointed out that the Donghak ants showed outstanding performance in the stock market this year, but they were heavily focused on stocks with high volatility, and thus were also vulnerable to risk management. In particular, there were many opinions (16.7%) that investment in high-risk products such as short hits and leveraged products should be avoided. This year’s stock market showed overall recovery after a plunge, showing high expected returns, but if the vaccine is inoculated in earnest and the launch of the drug is in the field of visibility, the expected return on the stock market for next year is likely to be lower than this year. In the end, the leaders’ diagnosis is that it is more important to find individual companies that have adapted well to the changed world after Corona 19, rather than investment aimed at’one shot’. Choi Hyun-man, senior vice chairman of Mirae Asset Daewoo, advised, “Next year, the expected rate of return should be lowered,” and advised, “For contact companies that have adapted well to changes in the world, rather than non-face-to-face like this year, the return on investment will be high.”
In this year’s domestic stock market alone, 100 trillion won of personal funds flowed into the stock market, and there were many expectations that the intensity of household funds would be eased next year. 60.9% of the respondents predicted that’the amount of money inflow will be less than this year’, and 26.1% predicted that it will be similar to this year’s. The opinion that financial investment companies need to achieve steady returns along with tax benefits for long-term investments in order to continue inflow of funds into the stock market accounted for the largest share at 43.5% each. In addition, a minority opinion was on strengthening investor finance education (4.3%) and maintaining a low interest rate environment (8.7%). Na Jae-cheol, head of the Financial Investment Association, said, “If you hold superior stocks such as Samsung Electronics for a long period of time for 10 years, you can increase the wealth of individual investors and facilitate the financing of companies in the capital market.” The National Assembly and the government should give tax benefits more boldly.”
Capital market leaders predicted that next year’s stock market will continue to rise, although not as much as this year. In particular, the KOSPI index predicted that most of the respondents could surpass 3,000 points next year. 47.8% of the leaders said that they would be able to settle over 3,000 points, and 34.8% said they would exceed 3,000 points but fall below again in the second half. Only 13% of respondents said they would not exceed 3,000 points.
This year’s KOSPI rose more than 30% compared to the beginning of the year, far exceeding the rate of growth in developed markets such as the US’s Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index. In particular, the stock market collapsed due to the spread of Corona 19 and the index fell to the 1,400 point range, but it reached the 2,900 line at the end of the year, showing the strongest resilience among global stock markets. However, market leaders still assessed that the domestic stock market was undervalued. The opinion that the domestic stock market was undervalued reached 65.2% of the total, and 34.8% said it was appropriate. No one commented that it was overvalued.
The reason that the domestic stock market was undervalued was due to the lack of corporate governance and shareholder return policy. In fact, the dividend payout ratio of the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Korea index is only 26%, which is far short of the global index average (41%). Lee Hyun, president of Kiwoom Securities, pointed out, “If the policies for returning to shareholders of listed companies in Korea are expanded, expectations for improvement in supply and demand for foreigners may increase.” Following that, many respondents cited excessive external dependence economic structure (21.7%) and high exchange rate volatility (13%), and 8.7% of leaders cited geopolitical risks such as the North Korean nuclear program.
/ Reporter Park Seong-ho and Lee Hye-jin [email protected]
< 저작권자 ⓒ 서울경제, 무단 전재 및 재배포 금지 >