On the afternoon of the 1st, the holiday season,’The Hyundai Seoul’ in Yeouido, Seoul is crowded with citizens enjoying shopping. The quarantine authorities extended social distancing, which is the second stage in the metropolitan area and 1.5 stages in the non-capital area, for an additional two weeks from this day to the 14th. News 1
The number of new confirmed cases of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea is on the rise again. The number of confirmed cases is rather increasing even though the respiratory virus has passed the winter season, which is prone to outbreaks, and has entered the spring season. Experts say it was predicted as the distance was loosened. Some claim that “the 4th epidemic has already begun”.
According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters on the 14th, the number of new corona19 confirmed cases in Korea as of 0 o’clock on that day is 459. It was 31 people less than the previous day (490 people), but it has reached 400 people in the sixth day since the 9th (446 people). Currently, the social distancing stage is the second stage in the metropolitan area and the 1.5 stage in the non-metropolitan area. Last week, the average number of new patients per day was 428.3, which is in the range of 2.5 steps of social distancing (over 400-500 nationwide, etc.). Compared to the previous week (371.7), this is an increase of 56.6 (about 15%).
At a briefing at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters that day, Sohn Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division, Central Accident Control Headquarters, said, “The epidemic continues to appear in various daily lives where quarantine management is weak. There is a tendency to spread,” he diagnosed.
Why is the number of confirmed cases not decreasing even after winter, when the spread of the Corona 19 virus is easy, and entering spring? The recent spread of Corona 19 is a result of a number of complex factors, but the main cause is that the amount of people’s movement has increased.
The Ministry of Health and Welfare’s analysis of the change in mobile phone traffic shows that on Tuesday, the 9th, the number of movements in the metropolitan area was 1795 million, 14.45 million in the non-capital area, and 3246 million in the nation. The mobile phone traffic statistics are calculated as the number of movements when a user of a mobile operator visits a city or district other than the city or district where they actually reside and stays for more than 30 minutes. The nationwide movement volume of 3246 million on the 9th was an increase of 6.0% (1.83 million) from the previous Tuesday, February 23. It recovered to almost the same level as the 33.4 million cases on November 17 last year, the Tuesday just before the distance hike. It means that the amount of movement of people has increased to the same extent as before the distance.
“As a result of some mitigation of quarantine measures such as fatigue and extension of business hours due to the prolonged distance, the amount of movement such as the use of various meetings and multi-use facilities continues to increase.” I am concerned about many things in the future.”
Lee Jae-gap, professor of infectious medicine at Hallym University Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital, said, “It has passed the peak of the 3rd epidemic and is falling and then rising again.” Professor Lee said, “It was already predicted by easing the distance. He pointed out, “The number of people’s activity is increasing, and group infections are occurring in restaurants, cafes, entertainment bars, and other places where quarantine measures have been mitigated.”
Kim Woo-joo, a professor of infectious medicine at Daegu Guro Hospital, pointed out that “the problem is that the government is unable to take the direction of quarantine measures.” Professor Kim said, “It is not a situation in which the reorganization plan will be applied, but it is time to raise the stage from the existing five stages, but we are not raising it. One side said it was immediately dangerous, and the other side extended business hours.”
Ministry of Health and Welfare Central Accident Control Headquarters
Professor Kim predicted that the mutant virus would be an important factor of spread. “As spring came, it was advantageous for quarantine. People go outdoors rather than indoors, and as the temperature rises, the survival period for the virus decreases.” He said. “Environmental factors are becoming more favorable, but the number of mutant viruses is at a disadvantage. Contagion has increased to 50-70%. What the government has announced may be the tip of the iceberg, and the problem is that it is increasing in the local community.”
Jeong Ki-seok, a professor of respiratory internal medicine at Hallym University Sacred Heart Hospital (former head of the Centers for Disease Control), said, “I made five steps to distance and did not observe it. I did not do it when I had to take the strongest step, but applied it appropriately and endured’prohibition of meetings with more than 5 people’. As a result, we have not been able to prevent the spread of the virus following people’s movements in society as a whole.”
Professor Jeong pointed out, “It is defeat to ease the quarantine measures in the metropolitan area in this situation.” He warned, “I have no choice but to expect the spread of the virus because the weather is getting warmer now. Even if the third outbreak ends at the end of this month, if 300 to 400 people continue, the scale of the outbreak will inevitably increase when it breaks.
Reporter Esther and Hwang Soo-yeon [email protected]
