This year, the domestic automobile market is expected to face a transition period to the era of future cars such as electrification and autonomous driving. It is an analysis that the end of the full-fledged electric car era will rise as the number of new electric car launches from global automakers including Hyundai Motor Group will continue.
◇ Fostering eco-friendly industries in major countries by strengthening environmental regulations… Is the era of electric vehicles opening?
According to the industry on the 1st, market research institutes are predicting that the demand for electric vehicles will increase sharply starting this year. Along with the strengthening of carbon dioxide emission regulations, countries are increasingly planning to ban the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines, and major countries in the world, such as the United States and Europe, are struggling to foster eco-friendly industries in order to boost the economic downturn in the aftermath of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19). .
The forecast that EV sales will increase sharply between 2021 and 2030 is even more powerful. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, pure electric vehicles will account for 31% of the global automobile market. SNE Research predicted that this year’s global electric vehicle sales will reach 6.87 million. It is also expected that the EV market will grow at an annual average of 21%.
In line with this, global automakers’ electrification strategies are also accelerating. Starting with the launch of’Ioniq 5’this year, Hyundai Motor Company will significantly expand its lineup for electric vehicles. The goal is to sell 560,000 units a year by introducing more than 12 models by 2025, including electric vehicles and derivative models based on E-GMP, an electric vehicle-only platform.
The same is true of overseas companies such as General Motors (GM), Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi Volkswagen Group. In particular, CEO Mary Barra announced a plan to invest 20 billion dollars in electric vehicle and electric vehicle battery technology by 2025 in October of last year. GM also announced a goal of launching more than 30 electric vehicle models by 2025 and selling 1 million electric vehicles in the global market.
It is evaluated that the competitiveness of Korean automakers is sufficient amid fierce global competition. The Export-Import Bank of Korea’s Overseas Economic Research Institute recently published an industry outlook report that presented electric vehicle exports this year at $7 billion, a 70% increase from the previous year. In particular, it is explained that domestic electric vehicles are recognized for their design and performance in overseas markets, so that exports can continue to increase.
Following the Ioniq 5, Hyundai Motor Company plans to release the mid-sized sedan’Ionik 6’and the large sports utility vehicle (SUV)’Ionik 7’in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Kia Motors is also releasing a new electric vehicle’CV’ (project name). The luxury brand Genesis is also planning to release’JW’ (project name) and G80-based electric vehicle models.
The Overseas Economic Research Institute analyzes that global electric vehicle demand has passed the initial market stage and has entered a full-fledged growth stage. Industry Research Institute also predicted that the demand for eco-friendly cars will increase significantly as environmental regulations emerge as an important issue this year.
Kang Jeong-hwa, a senior researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute, said, “The number of electric vehicles exported has been on the rise for 40 consecutive months. The average export price of electric vehicles is $30,000, which is higher than that of internal combustion locomotives ($19,500), which will greatly contribute to the increase in automobile exports in Korea. Prospect” explained.
The hydrogen electric vehicle market, which was only a test market until last year, is expected to be formed with a scale of 200,000 units from 2025. Hydrogen electric vehicles are superior to electric vehicles in eco-friendliness, mileage, and charging time. Senior researcher Kang said, “In the case of hydrogen electric vehicles, large-scale investments for initial infrastructure expansion are inevitable,” and “However, if European countries’ active supply policies and China’s participation in the market expand, it can grow to 1 million units by 2030.” .
◇’High fares’, which gave HMM the highest performance in 10 years, shakes in the second quarter?
The prospects of the shipping industry, which enjoyed an unexpected boom last year due to Corona 19, are somewhat mixed. According to the global economic recovery movement, freight rates and charter fees will generally increase compared to the previous year. However, tanker ships are expected to have a lot of inventory due to the increase in imports of low-priced goods from each country, and production cuts in oil producing countries are expected to continue, so it is difficult to expect a demand increase.
In the midst of this, there are also opinions that the high freight rate march in the container division, which brought surpluses to HMM (formerly Hyundai Merchant Marine) and SM Merchant Marine, could be an inflection point in the second quarter of this year when new ships are introduced.
Shipping rates have jumped sharply from the second half of last year as shipments have been pushed back due to global supply cuts due to Corona 19, and economic recovery in major countries has made it difficult to find ships. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI), which shows the flow of container freight rates, hit a record high of 2641.87 as of the 25th of last month.
Thanks to this, HMM turned to the black in 21 quarters in the second quarter and recorded an operating profit of 277.1 billion won in the third quarter. There is also high expectations for achieving an annual surplus. The securities industry estimates HMM’s 4Q operating profit at 400 billion won. SM Merchant Marine is also expected to see the largest surplus since its inception.
NH Investment & Securities researcher Jeong Yeon-seung said, “From April this year, 10,000 TEU-class ships will be put into the US route in earnest, and ships ordered by HMM will be delivered early in the second quarter.” Is judged as the fare inflection point.”
Yang Jong-seo, a senior researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute, said, “If you refer to the trade prospects of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), trade volume this year will increase due to the base effect, but absolute trade volume is not expected to recover to the level in 2019 before Corona 19.”
It was written with the content provided through News1.