Securities Market Research Center Heads “Ant Will Be Active Next Year”
Advice on “Constructing a portfolio centered on large-cap stocks…you need to make a sound investment”
Photo = Getty Image Bank
[편집자주] ‘Take the floor and kick the roof’ This year’s stock market was literally riding a roller coaster due to a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19). The KOSPI index, which broke through the unprecedented 2700 line, hit the 2800 line for the first time in history. It is expected that the stock market will form a bull market as we enter the year of the bull market with the successively raising the target index for next year to more than 3000. It is also growing. Hankyung.com surveyed the heads of research centers at 11 major securities companies in Korea, and pointed out the trends of domestic and overseas stock markets next year and stocks to be noted.
One of the most frequently mentioned words in the domestic stock market this year is’Donghak ant’ (individual investor). When the stock market plummeted due to the direct hit of the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), they packed up their funds and flocked to the stock market.
The Yeouido Securities Street predicted that the ants will be active in the stock market next year as well. This is because the environment for low interest rates and low growth continues and the conditions for real estate investment are getting worse. It is advised that individuals need to avoid excessive use of debt (leverage) such as “investment in addiction” and “young investment” and establish investment principles.
Securities company center heads “The’Donghak Ant Movement’ will continue next year”
According to the financial investment industry on the 25th, the heads of the centers of securities companies are the opinion that individuals will be able to stand out in the domestic stock market next year. There are no financial products with high expected returns due to the fastening of a low interest rate and low growth environment, and even real estate, the representative financial means of Korean people, is losing its attractiveness due to the government’s strong measures.
Oh Tae-dong, head of NH Investment & Securities Research Center, said, “Korea’s households own assets in four types: real estate, deposits, insurance, and stocks. Deposits and insurance have lost their attractiveness as investment assets due to low growth and low interest rates.” He pointed out that investment has become difficult due to the strengthening of regulations that have continued since 2017.
Accordingly, we believe that individual interest in stocks will continue next year.
Individuals’ breathing is also getting stronger. As the individual’s financial power has grown, the government is devising a plan to lock it in the market in the long term. The government has recently come up with a plan to provide tax incentives if stocks are held for a long period of time through the direction of economic policy in 2021. In preparation for the implementation of the financial investment income tax in 2023, plans to improve the system next year are planned.
Short selling by institutional investors, who have been blamed as the main culprit of the’tilted playground’, will also be significantly restricted. The Financial Services Commission announced a plan to improve the market maker system, which included a total ban on short selling by market makers of Mini KOSPI 200 futures and options (mini futures), and abolition of exemption from the’uptick rule’ (restriction on selling price) by market makers.
In addition, △Upgrade the capital gains tax exemption standard (20 million won → 50 million won) △ Extend the collection period (monthly → half year) △ Apply a basic deduction of 50 million won for equity-type public offering funds △ Lower the capital gains tax imposition standard for major shareholders (1 billion → 300 million won), etc. They are the’fruits’ they won against the government.
Hwang Se-woon, a research fellow at the Capital Market Research Institute, said, “The reason individuals’ demands could be fulfilled is because their participation in the stock market has exploded.” Various opinions will come out.”
(Photo = Getty Image Bank)
The market for next year is different from this year… Attention to’large-scale performance improvement period’
The heads of securities firms saw that next year’s stock market is likely to unfold differently from this year. It is explained that if the liquidity market this year led to a strong rebound, mainly small and medium-cap stocks, next year, large-sized large-cap stocks could rise according to the macroeconomic (macro) trend.
Daeshin Securities Research Center Director Jeong Yeon-woo said, “As there is a high possibility that the market will develop next year due to macros, it is necessary to invest in large-caps rather than small- and medium-caps.” .
“Individuals should build an investment portfolio (portfolio) that focuses on next year’s performance,” said Kyung-soo Lee, head of the Meritz Securities Research Center.
As the index has recently risen without major adjustments, there are voices of concern that volatility may increase depending on the macroeconomic environment such as interest rates and exchange rates. Therefore, it is pointed out that it is not appropriate to invest in certain stocks at once or to use excessive credit and outstanding transactions. It is an advice that individuals should set investment principles and make rational investments.
Yoon Hee-do, head of the Korea Investment & Securities Research Center, said, “This year, the domestic stock market has risen steadily without a major decline.” “There is a high possibility of fluctuations when volatility increases depending on macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and exchange rates. .
Seo Cheol-soo, head of Mirae Asset Daewoo Research, said, “It is important for individuals to make investments that are not unreasonable by using appropriate asset allocation and leverage (liabilities).” I will do it,” he advised.
Lee Song-ryul, reporter of Hankyung.com [email protected]