 ▲ A view of Seoul apartment complex (Photo-Newsis) © Popcorn News |
(Popcorn News = Reporter Jeong Chan-hyuk) President Moon Jae-in admitted that he had not succeeded in stabilizing real estate at a New Year’s press conference on the 18th.
He said he was confident about real estate and made more than 20 policies, but he eventually stepped back.
However, as to the factor of stabilization failure, he gave a difficult answer that it was not a policy failure but because of the current situation. “There is a side that has fueled real estate prices due to a shortage of supply due to an unplanned increase in the number of households,” he said.
In the market, it is fortunate that the government has admitted the wrong judgment lately, but it is pointed out that the cause of the soaring real estate prices is not from the failure of the government’s real estate regulations or supply measures, but from the indirect reason of the increase of generations. In addition, there is even an analysis that the real estate regulation in the past has fueled an increase in the number of households.
■ Increasing number of households, why couldn’t you predict
Regarding the rise in real estate prices at a New Year’s press conference, President Moon said, “The market is in a situation where liquidity is abundant and the real estate market is rushing money due to low interest rates.” “We need to analyze more in the future.”
According to the National Statistical Office’s Resident Registered Population Status, the number of resident registered households in the last five years ▲ 280,000 (2.101 million → 2129 million) in 2016 ▲ 340,000 (2163 million) in 2017 ▲ 410,000 (2.204 million) in 2018 ▲ 440,000 (2248) in 2019 Man) ▲It was calculated that the number of households increased by 610,000 (2,309 million) in 2020.
It is unusual to see an increase of 610,000 households last year, but there was an example of an increase of 600,000 households in 2010 (1926 million → 1986 million), and the generational division and increase in single-person households are already predictable household changes.
 ▲ Number of resident registration households by administrative district (photo-Statistics Korea) © Popcorn News |
According to the’Resident Registered Population Statistics’ (as of December 31, 2020) released by the Ministry of Public Administration and Security on the 3rd, the total number of households increased, but the population decreased by 20,000, down 20,000 from the previous year, for the first time in the count.
Of the total number of households (23.93 million households), one-person households accounted for 39.2%, with 9.30 million households. Compared to 7.45 million households in 2016, this is an increase of 1.16 million households. Also, compared to 35% of single-person households, the number of households increased by 4.2 percentage points.
In addition, last year, two-person households were about 5.4 million, accounting for 23.4% of the total, and the number of one-two-person households continued to increase, reaching 14.46 million households (62.6% of the total household) when one-person household and one-person household were added. come.
This means that the division of households and the increase of single-person households due to changes in the family concept such as youth giving up employment or marriage, two-person households who do not give birth to children due to the burden of child support after marriage, and evening divorce of the elderly are not only problems last year. .
In this situation, it is pointed out that the lack of housing supply due to the inability to prepare for an increase in the number of households means that policy preparation is insufficient.
President Moon Jae-in said at a press conference that “by increasing participation in the public sector, we will increase the quantity of housing through public redevelopment, station area development, and bold development of new residential lands.”
However, as it takes three to four years to supply housing, it is pointed out that it is a’reverse North policy’ that belatedly accepted the criticism of the market that insisted on real estate stabilization by expanding the supply volume.
Professor Kwon Dae-jung of the Department of Real Estate at Myongji University criticized, “We judged that there was no problem with the housing supply because we judged that the quantity of the multi-homed people could supply the market, and then we belatedly spur the new supply.”
■ Multi-homeowner regulation policy, causing separation of households
Some analyzes say that the government’s reinforcement of real estate policies regulating multi-homed people has caused generational separation.
The government predicted that if more taxes were imposed, the supply of goods to the market would be provided by offering the homes that the multi-homed people had spared, but rather, it is pointed out that the quantity of goods did not come out as much as the government predicted as members of the multi-homed family divided by generations.
In order to block the demand for housing speculation, the government strengthened the tax burden at each stage before acquisition, possession, and disposal with the 6.17 measures and the 7.10 measures last year.
When multi-homed people acquire a home, the acquisition tax rate from 1 to 4 percent has increased to 12 percent after the 7.10 measures.
For example, if one homeowner’s household purchases a home of 600 million won in the area subject to adjustment under the name of a child and becomes the second home, the basic acquisition tax rate of 1% is applied to a home of 600 million won or less, and the acquisition tax is 6 million won. done.
Currently, the acquisition tax rate in the area subject to adjustment for two-owners has to rise to 8% and pay 48 million won. However, if children over 30 years of age are separated from each other, children only need to pay the basic acquisition tax rate as a single homeowner as before.
If a 1 billion won house is purchased in the area subject to adjustment, the acquisition tax will rise from 30 million won to 120 million won respectively for one and three homes.
Separate households, each with 1 household and 1 house, and in the case of future transfer, there is a reduction or exemption benefit so that tax can be saved.
It is also advantageous to separate households for housing subscriptions. Currently, in regulated areas, only the head of household can become the number one subscriber.
For children who are in the same household as their parents who own a house, it is advantageous for future subscriptions to separate households because the score for the period of no-home period is 0 in the subscription price point.
The government sent a signal to multi-homed people to dispose of their homes through the capital gains tax, which will be enforced in June, but the actual market movement was different.
 ▲ Housing transaction status by transaction reason (Photo-Korea Real Estate Agency) © Popcorn News |
According to the real estate transaction status of the Korea Real Estate Agency on the 19th, the number of donations out of last year’s housing transactions was 15,2427, an increase of 37.5% (41,580) compared to 11,847 in 2019. It can be seen that the number of cases in 2020 has increased significantly compared to the decrease from 11,863 in 2018 to 11,847 in 2019.
By month, it fell in August-September after the July 10 real estate countermeasure, and then increased again from October. The number of apartment donations also increased from 6775 in October to 9619 in November and 9898 in December.
Many experts argued that in order to stabilize the real estate market, the supply of goods should be maintained, and the transfer tax should be cut in order to induce goods for multi-homeowners.
Professor Kwon Dae-jung said, “Gift can also be seen as a means of choice for multi-homed people to avoid the transfer tax regulation.”