The beauty was also abandoned 12 years ago… The Civil Defense Reform 2.0 Holding It [김민석의 Mr.밀리터리]

The Defense Reform 2.0, which the Moon Jae-in administration has been promoting over the past four years, is becoming a budget-eating hippo. Defense Reform 2.0 was established by benchmarking US defense reform in early 2000, but the US Department of Defense abandoned it in 2009. New technologies are coming out innovatively, and Russia and China are armed with artificial intelligence (AI) and robots. It was decided that the existing combat method could not keep up with the change. So, the US Department of Defense is reorganizing the military with the innovative technology of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. But the Korean military is in the middle of the old fashion night.
Defense Minister Seo-wook said at the defense reform evaluation meeting in September last year that 72% of the total target and 85% of the power increase were achieved. However, there is a phenomenon of the rich and the poor, where they overinvest in stronger combat power than North Korea and neglect areas that are difficult to respond to, such as nuclear and missiles. This is due to repeated investments. It is difficult to find a reform mindset. It is in the same context that the railroad fence and the coast have been pierced in a row recently, and that North Korea has not disclosed the launch of cruise missiles.

Defense reform was initiated by the Roh Moo-hyun administration in 2005. It was fresh then. It is modeled after the Defense Transformation promoted by US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the Bush administration. The Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye governments changed and improved the period for defense reform.

Moon Jae-in’s defense reform, which is not much different from the previous government

The Moon Jae-in administration named it’Defense Reform 2.0′ to distinguish it from the previous government. However, in terms of content, there is no difference from the previous government. It is because it is a conventional defense reform that only builds muscle power, focusing on firepower and mobility. There were no innovative efforts, such as changing the unit structure to match the modern warfare or integrating the army, sea, and air forces. The unit structure and tactics of our military have not improved significantly compared to those of the Korean War (1950). Compared to the United States, even North Korea, with numerous changes in unit structure and tactical improvements. Currently, our military is an inefficient system that costs a lot of money and makes it difficult to reduce troops.
The Ministry of National Defense boasts that it is a national defense reform that reduces its troops from 618,000 in 2017 to 500,000 in 2022 and from 436 to 360 in 2022. However, the reduction in military force is an inevitable result due to the lack of military service resources due to a sharp drop in the fertility rate. The military service period was reduced from 21 months to 18 months at the time of the election, causing a shortage of troops. It is not the essence of national defense reform. With a small number of troops, we have no choice but to reduce our legions and divisions. Six divisions disappear. Instead, the Ministry of Defense has significantly increased K2 tanks and new missiles. In addition, it is promoting the introduction of F-35A stealth fighters and aerial tankers, as well as the construction of 3000t class submarines and new ships.

However, the gap in conventional combat power between the South and North Korean forces is that of iron and bronze ware. If our army is an iron army, then the North Korean army is a bronze weapon. This difference was demonstrated in the 2003 Iraq War. At the time, the Iraqi army had the latest weapons than the current North Korean army, but it was not a match for the US military with mobility and intelligence with high-tech weapons with high accuracy and lethality. Tanks are the representative of the gap in conventional weapons between the two Koreas. Most of the North Korean military tanks are of the former Soviet Union T-series, which are several orders of magnitude less than ours.
The new North Korean tanks, the Cheonma and Storm, are inferior to the Army K1A1 and K2 tanks. The anti-tank missile firebird possessed by the North Korean military has an armor penetration of 50 cm. It cannot penetrate Army K1A1 and K2 tanks with front armor protection of 70 cm or more. Moreover, the North Korean tanks that are sequentially deployed on limited roads are rats in front of cats in attack by army attack helicopters and air force fighters. Nevertheless, the military authorities are increasing the volume of K2 tanks, which were drastically cut during the Lee Myung-bak administration. Moreover, once North Korean fighters are removed in the early stages of the war, North Korean tanks will be difficult to move even in the midst of air attacks by ROK and US air forces.
The North Korean artillery is similar. In front of the metropolitan area, more than 300 long-range cannons are placed in the tunnel, but they can be removed in a few days with air force fighters and army missiles in war. Destroy the entrance to the tunnel and that’s it. When the thermal pressurized bomb developed by the Defense Science Research Institute is dropped, the inside of the Jangsajeongpo tunnel becomes a sea of ​​fire. As seen in the Yeonpyeong Island artillery provocation, the rest of the artillery are also significantly inferior to the Army K-9 and K-55. The number of North Korean artillery (including radioactive artillery) is twice as many as that of the Korean military, but only a fraction of the quantity that can be put into the front at once. Although North Korea recently developed a new large-caliber missile and short-range missile, it is difficult to produce large-scale supplies for war due to the extremely difficult economic conditions.
How about the Navy and Air Force? Most of the North Korean naval ships are small. There are only two of the largest ships, the Najin class (1500t). Our navy overwhelms North Korean ships, from the high-speed sword eagle (400t) to the Aegis ship, King Sejong (7650t). Our ships are large, but they have automated guns and are equipped with missiles. So, when a war breaks out, the North Korean traps can’t last a week. Of course, about 70 North Korean submarines are a problem. However, North Korean submarines have a short period of operation, and if their base is destroyed, they have no place to return.
The air force gap is larger. Although the number of North Korean fighters is large, they are more than 30 years old. It is not our fighter’s opponent. In case of emergency, it is said to disappear over the Korean peninsula in about 3 days. Moreover, in case of emergency, a large number of U.S. military ships and fighters come in to help Korea.

The Korean military, which is strong in the conventional and weak in cyber and nuclear

The problem is North Korea’s cyber forces and weapons of mass destruction, and our countermeasures against them are very weak. It is said that there are 7,000 cyber warriors in North Korea. In an emergency, it is highly likely to paralyze not only the Internet in Korea, but also the military computer network. North Korea hacked into the military computer network several years ago, and it is impossible to determine how much secret data was stolen. It is also possible that a backdoor or virus has been planted. If the ship is hacked, the missile may fly towards us, and if the command center computer is hacked, the operation is paralyzed. Nevertheless, our military’s cyber combat power has been in place for more than 10 years.
The nuclear and missile are more serious. North Korea has 50 to 100 nuclear warheads (Dr. Bruce Bennett, Rand Research Institute) and more than 1,000 ballistic missiles. Recently, it is said that the propulsion system of ballistic missiles is changing from liquid fuel to solid. If you use solid fuel, you can shoot and run away in an instant. The effectiveness of the kill chain being built by the Ministry of Defense to eliminate the North Korean military ballistic missiles in advance is inevitably reduced. There are also limitations with radar and interceptor Patriot missiles that can detect North Korean ballistic missiles. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the United States has a clear nuclear umbrella for North Korea’s nuclear weapons, but it is questionable whether the United States will retaliate against North Korea for the sacrifice of its own people for North Korean nuclear weapons.
Defense Reform 2.0 is out of the essence because it focuses on military civilization, political neutrality, and early transition of wartime traditional control. President Moon referred to the defense reform as “a winning army, an army full of patriotism and morale, blocking corruption, guaranteeing the human rights of soldiers, and improving service conditions” (video from the Ministry of National Defense). There is a considerable distance from changing the constitution of the military to strengthen combat power and operate efficiently. So, will national defense reform be successful? The reforms are being carried out in parallel and in a row.
As a result, the army, the sea, and the air force are a budget-picking war. The goal is unclear and only weight is gaining. The National Assembly Legislative Research Office also pointed out that “the development of military doctrine and securing future defense manpower in accordance with the change in the battlefield paradigm is insufficient.” (『Evaluation of Defense Reform 2.0 and Future Tasks』)

US forces, one manned tank command three robot tanks

The future is more of a problem. In the 2030s, military service resources begin to decline rapidly. Currently, our military system manages to fill 400,000 people. The conclusion is that the military cannot be maintained with the Defense Reform 2.0 method.
The United States will arm its troops with AI and robots in three phases by 2040. One manned or armored vehicle commands three robotic tanks. One human combatant and 3 robotic combatants fight in pairs. The troops are drastically reduced, and dangerous and boring operations are made to robots.
The U.S. military is transformed into a robot army, whereas the Korean military is declining to the bronze age group. If this happens, it is questionable whether the joint training between the United States and Korea will work properly.
Russia has ordered President Putin to turn 30% of Russian troops into robots by 2030. Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the Chinese military to become the world’s largest AI center.
The US Department of Defense is mobilizing a total of military research institutes, defense companies, universities and IT companies to build a robotic combat system equipped with AI. When robots are put into battle, all tactics and operations change. It is essential to link information, operations, and command systems using AI with front-line combat units. Military forces are also completely rearranged. It is at the level of redesigning the army and completely renovating it. Nevertheless, the Ministry of Defense is a’smart army’ only for Gu Ho. There is an urgent need to immediately abolish the Defense Reform 2.0 and reorganize it into a new military using the 4th Industrial Revolution technology. Senior Member, Military Security Research Institute