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Renewable power generation facilities will more than triple by 2034
The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on the 28th that it has established the “9th Basic Electric Power Supply and Demand Plan,” which includes electricity supply and demand forecasts, demand management, power facility plans, power market system improvement, and greenhouse gas reduction measures for 15 years until 2034.
According to the Ministry of Industry, the standard demand for maximum power demand in 2034 is projected to be 117.5GW. The target demand is 102.5GW, taking into account the power demand management and the spread of electric vehicles.
The annual average growth rate of the 9th plan’s maximum power is expected to decrease slightly (-0.3% points) from the 8th plan to 1.0%, reflecting the decline in the annual average economic growth rate.
The target facility capacity for 2034 was calculated as 125.1GW, reflecting the base facility reserve rate of 22% to the target demand (102.5GW) for the same year. To meet this, an additional 2.8GW facility needs to be expanded, and it is planned to be expanded with liquefied natural gas (LNG) and pumped-up power generation.
Looking at the facility capacity by major power generation sources, coal facilities will decrease from 35.8GW in 2020 to 29.0GW in 2034, and nuclear power plants will decrease by 6.8GW and 3.9GW from 41.3GW to 19.4GW, respectively. During the same period, LNG facilities are expected to increase sharply from 41.3GW to 59.1GW to 17.8GW, and renewables to 77.8GW from 20.1GW to 57.7GW.
Looking at the proportion by facility, nuclear power and coal will decrease from 46.3% in 2020 to 25.1% in 2034, and renewable energy more than doubles from 15.8% to 40.3% in the same period.
The GHG reduction plan has proposed a greenhouse gas emission target of 193 million tons in 2030 in conjunction with the National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (NDC) of 2030, a national plan to be submitted to the United Nations at the end of the year. This is 23.6% less than the 2017 plan (252 million tons). The emission of fine dust in the power generation sector is also expected to be reduced by 57% from 21,000 tons last year to 9000 tons in 2030.
Looking at the share of power generation by energy source, coal, which accounts for the largest share of 40.4% as of last year, will decrease to 29.9% by 2030. On the other hand, in the case of new and renewable energy, it will increase significantly from 6.5% to 20.8% over the same period.
The proportion of decentralized power generation will increase significantly from about 12% this year to about 21% in 2034. The government is planning to devise a plan to support benefits for avoidance of construction of transmission lines and to consider introducing a system to diversify new demand in the metropolitan area.
In order to expand renewable energy, large-scale projects such as offshore wind power will be promoted in a timely manner, and core facilities will be developed and demonstrated in parallel with the start of the project.
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“Major expansion of new and renewable energy, need for national consensus”
The 9th plan announced by the government focused on de-nuclear and de-coal, but some point out that it is somewhat inadequate compared to the government’s goal of declaring carbon neutrality in 2050. Since the share of LNG facilities that emit carbon accounted for 30.6% in 2034, question marks were placed on whether it would be possible to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.
The government said that the 9th plan is in line with the existing National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target (NDC), and if an additional national plan is made, it will be reflected in the plan.
“The GHG reduction target of the 9th plan was consistent with the NDC,” said Joo Young-joon, head of the Ministry of Industry’s Energy Resources Division.
Seoul National University of Science and Technology Professor Seung-Hoon Yoo, who serves as the chairman of the subcommittee on the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand, also said, “The ninth plan started meetings in March last year, and the declaration of carbon neutrality was earlier this month, so the time was not right to reflect this. “The 10th plan to be made in the future will include the content of carbon neutrality.”
However, there are concerns that the target for expansion of new and renewable energy may be set too high, which may affect the supply and demand of electricity.
The 20.8% share of renewable energy generation proposed in the 9th plan is 0.8 percentage points higher than the 20.0% reflected in the’Renewable Energy 3020′ measure. In the original plan, non-renewable waste (3.5%) was included in the amount of renewable energy generation, but in the 9th plan, 20.8% was achieved only with solar and wind power. Compared to the initial goal, it is necessary to expand 4.3 percentage points by renewable power generation.
In addition, as it is inevitable to increase the proportion of new and renewable energy generation in order to achieve carbon neutrality in the 10th plan, securing solar and wind power sites has become a major task. As new and renewable energy, which has a higher unit price than nuclear power and coal, increases, controversy over electricity rates will rise.
Prof. Yu said, “The proportion of renewable energy generation in the 9th plan is a higher level than previously announced measures, which is a very challenging task.” “If you invest resources to expand renewable energy, it will eventually come back to the public burden. When establishing it, a national consensus is necessary.”
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