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It is predicted that the KOSPI index will open a new era of 3000 next year. It is predicted that the market will continue to rise as interest in new growth industries such as the Korean version of the New Deal policy and anticipation of an economic recovery after the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) pandemic is concentrated.
On the 24th, Hankyung.com surveyed the prospects of the KOSPI for next year through 11 domestic securities companies, and KB Securities and Shinhan Investment Corp. presented the highest 3200.
KB Securities predicted that the KOSPI in the first half will move from the 2500~3050 line and rise to 3200 in the second half. Shin Dong-jun and Yoo Seung-chang, head of the KB Securities Research Center, said, “There are concerns about the possibility of austerity in the central bank (Fed) due to increased inflation,” and “As the Corona 19 vaccine spreads, the expectation to resume economic activities accordingly is spreading. I pointed out.
Yoon Chang-yong, head of the Shinhan Financial Investment Research Center, said, “The sluggish employment will be alleviated and the household purchasing power will resume, focusing on the face-to-face service industry, which was affected by Corona 19.” Recovery will be possible.”
Most securities companies, such as NH Investment & Securities Daishin Securities and Meritz Securities, predicted that the KOSPI would exceed 3000 next year.
“The second half of the year is coming to the age of 3000…Upgrade corporate performance is key”
Most brokerage firms expected the 3000 era to begin in the second half of next year. Oh Tae-dong, head of the NH Investment & Securities Research Center, said, “In the second half of the year, governments in major countries are expected to legislate on expanding environmental investment. As interest in new growth industries increases, the stock market will continue to rally.”
Daeshin Securities Research Center Director Jeong Yeon-woo also said, “Central banks in major countries will increase the expectation of a global economic recovery as they offer additional quantitative easing and economic stimulus measures at the same time.” did.
Increasing corporate performance and increasing corporate value are factors supporting the KOSPI 3000 era. Meritz Securities predicted that KOSPI’s net profit would expand to 150 trillion won in 2022 based on the normalization of the economy and new growth industries.
Lee Kyung-soo, head of Meritz Securities Research Center, said, “The key to the index rise is the expansion of the technology growth industry and the level-up of corporate performance.”
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On the other hand, some securities firms have a somewhat conservative outlook on the KOSPI outlook. Samsung Securities estimates that the KOSPI next year will only reach 2850. It is expected to exceed the 2600-2800 line in the first half and the 2700-2850 line in the second half.
“There is a possibility that the vaccination and supply of Corona 19 vaccines and treatments may be delayed or the deterrence of confirmed cases may be limited,” said Oh Hyun-seok, head of the Research Center of Samsung Securities. There is room for the geopolitical burden to emerge again,” he diagnosed.
IBK Investment & Securities also forecasts that the KOSPI in the first half will be between 2500 and 2900 and the peak in the second half will be 2700. Jeong Yong-taek, head of the IBK Investment & Securities Research Center, said, “After the corona 19 vaccine vaccination and stimulus announcements, the upward pressure may weaken as expectations are reflected in the stock price.” “Whether the actual economic recovery becomes visible will determine the direction of the index, It is difficult for the economy to normalize immediately.”
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Dissemination of Corona 19 vaccine is’key’… ECG theme injury
The stock market pointed out that the distribution of the Corona 19 vaccine was the most important factor in the KOSPI 3000 era. There is a risk of deteriorating relations between the US and China since the inauguration of the US Biden government, but we believe the vaccine supply situation is paramount.
Seo Cheol-soo, director of Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center, emphasized, “It is important how quickly and successfully the vaccine is distributed. This can influence the pace of economic recovery and corporate profit growth, and will affect the timing of the monetary policy exit strategy.”
Factors that will dampen the KOSPI’s uptrend include a rise in interest rates and the lifting of the ban on short selling.
Oh Tae-dong, head of NH Investment & Securities Center, said, “In March and May next year, in commemoration of the 1st anniversary of the COVID-19 outbreak, a base effect of inflation will occur, which can stimulate interest rates to increase and increase the valuation burden on the stock market.” It is also a downside factor that foreigners and institutions may resume short selling strategies due to the expiration of the ban.”
In terms of policy, it is advice to pay attention to the Korean version of the New Deal. Daeshin Securities Research Center Director Jeong Yeon-woo said, “Next year, the Korean version of the New Deal policy will be implemented in earnest, and the government-led investment expansion and private participation are expected.” It will,” he predicted.
Hana Financial Investment said that it should pay attention to whether the ESG (environmental, social, governance) theme emerges and Biden’s inauguration and eco-friendly infrastructure investment policy will continue.
Eunbit Go, reporter Hankyung.com [email protected]