Input 2021.03.11 14:03 | Revision 2021.03.11 14:36
The probability of acquisition is hidden by the double draw method
‘Linger’ spending tens of millions of won per month
The game industry analyzes this because the problem consciousness about probability items does not exist within NCsoft. Actually, NCsoft CEO Kim Taek-jin expressed the view that “probability-type items are fair devices” at the National Assembly audit in 2018, three years ago. This is the main point that can be interpreted as a probabilistic item for which CEO Kim cannot even know whether it is possible to have it even with a large amount of money.
◇ In order to get the’mythical weapon’, it takes 200 million dollars… Acquisition probability’blinking’
According to the game industry and users on the 11th, NCsoft Lineage 2’s top-notch item’Mythic Weapon’ is pointed out that it is far from the policy of self-regulation of probability-type items. Users estimate that it costs 100 million to 200 million won to create a mythical weapon. It is such a high-priced and rare weapon, but the probability of obtaining the crafting material is unknown to the user.
To make a mythical weapon, you need a’mythical crafting recipe’. In order to obtain the recipe for mythology in the game, you must first obtain the item’Rare, Hero, and Legendary Crafting Recipe’ item by drawing or hunting, and then create and combine ancient history books 1-10 items.
NCsoft revealed the probability of appearance of the’rare, hero, and legendary crafting recipe’ that can be obtained by drawing an item named’Material Box of Growth’ at 2%, 0.5%, and 0.25%, respectively. On the other hand, the probability of creating an ancient history book was not disclosed.
Complete Gacha is a method in which a completion reward is given when all materials are collected by drawing an item, and it is easy to mistake the probability of each item as the probability of obtaining the final reward. In addition, there is a speculative controversy because one can feel a strong temptation to draw a paid game when there is at least one material left to collect. For this reason, Japan, which invented the complete gacha method, currently prohibits it, but there is no proper regulation in Korea.
◇ Kim Taek-jin “Lineage M is not inducing speculation”
NCsoft’s probabilistic item problem has been steadily pointed out for several years. However, NCsoft is lingering over a series of controversies. In his past remarks, CEO Taek-jin Kim revealed the opinion that there is no problem with probability-type items, and it is pointed out that it is difficult to expect forward-looking changes as well.
In 2018, CEO Kim said, “I think gambling is a game with money and money, and gambling is a game of money and money obtained through a luck.” Not only does it not do, and the items that users get are also for the game,” he said. “Lineage M does not induce speculation,” he added. “The probability-type item that users buy is a technical device for distributing items fairly rather than betting (of gambling),” he added.
However, even now, three years later, there is no news that NCsoft has prepared a device to protect youth. A company official said, “(At the time, CEO Taek-jin Kim) said, “Because individual companies can’t set policies, it was said that the industry should discuss together, centering on the National Assembly.” He added, “The mobile game basically requires a discussion on the platform, so we will do it together if the youth protection atmosphere is established through discussion through the Google Play Store or the App Store.”
◇ After all, money… Because there are billions of people pouring out of’Linger’ (Lineage + Uncle)
The reason why NCsoft has an ambiguous attitude toward probabilistic items is that the game industry eventually picks money. NCsoft posted sales of 2.416 trillion won last year, of which Lineage accounts for 81%. In addition, mobile games such as Lineage M and Lineage 2M account for 69% of the total sales. This is a 72% increase from the previous year. This means that Lineage, which earns a lot of profits from probabilistic items, has a large contribution to earnings growth. NCsoft does not separately calculate the proportion of probabilistic item sales for each game.
In the past when gameplay time was important,’Linger’, who mainly used Lineage in the days of Lineage for PC, meant’an old man who spent a long time on Lineage’, but after the platform was transferred to mobile,’an old man who spent a lot of money on Lineage’ Changed to.
Users are guessing that more than 10 billion won was spent on fitting equipment to the top 10 characters of Lineage M. In addition, it is publicly said that in order to be ranked at the top, you have to spend 30 million won or more per month. As long as there are probabilistic items, there is no reason NCsoft, which has a certain cash cow called’Linger C’, kicks them out on their own, explained by game industry officials.
Securities market analyzes that “it will not affect NCsoft’s sales” regarding the recent legislative attempts related to the regulation of probabilistic items, which are blowing around the political world. Kim Jin-gu, a researcher at KTB Investment & Securities, said in a recent report, “NCsoft’s probability information for each major item is already being disclosed through self-regulation,” and “I don’t think that additional regulatory risks will be a problem.”
Researcher Kim said, “If (recently discussed) leads to substantial regulations, equity issues may arise, centered on users who have already spent (a lot) on the game.” “It is a very sensitive and difficult issue to change the probability structure when you see that NCsoft has taken a callback (reverse) action.”
Researcher Kim said, “The reason NCsoft’s MMORPG lineup was successful is that it implemented the game system with key elements such as power that humans pursue.” If this happens, the fun in the game will be halved, and adjustments to promote competition, such as subdividing item types to improve this, are expected to appear, so it will not have a negative impact on sales.”