[속타는 기업들]
Sea level rises by 2m by the 1st of next month
When the water level is high, the ship has to be pulled out.
If you miss a chance, it takes weeks to recover
Review of the bypass route for the Cape of Good Hope of the shipping company
185 ships on standby
HMM container ship is also rooted
Shipping fares rise sharply in prolonged periods
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Whether the Suez Canal crisis, which causes damages of $400 million per hour (approximately 450 billion won), is expected to be prolonged within a week.
The sea level will rise from the 28th, and if this opportunity is not used to take the ship out of the canal, the situation could prolong the situation. In this case, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of rising freight rates, rising air and land fares, and a surge in oil prices. The domestic industry is rushing to come up with alternatives, such as reviewing detour routes, assuming the worst situation in which recovery will take orders.
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According to foreign media such as the Wall Street Journal on the 27th, the water surface near the Suez Canal is expected to rise more than 2m in the midst of the contrast at the end of this month. Unlike the Earth, the contrast period is when the sea level rises as it gets closer.
An industry insider explained, “The water surface near the canal rises more than 2m from the 28th to the 1st of next month. If the ship cannot be removed accordingly, you have to wait 14 days more.” In other words, if this opportunity is not taken, the Suez Canal crisis could take up to three weeks.
As it is difficult to rule out the possibility of prolonging the Suez Canal crisis, major shipping companies around the world are considering the use of a bypass route to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. The size of the super-large container ship’Evergiven’ stranded on the canal is 400m long, 59m wide, and a total tonnage of 224,000 tons, making it difficult to even move. The ship is part of Evergreen Taiwan, the world’s seventh largest shipping company.
The damage to the shipping industry due to the suspension of the Suez Canal is increasing rapidly. According to foreign media, as of the 25th, there were 185 vessels waiting because they could not pass through the Suez Canal. The industry estimates that an astronomical loss of $400 million per hour (about 450 billion won) is incurred based on the daily volume of the Suez Canal. The shipping industry as a whole is said to have lost 9 billion dollars (about 1.0 trillion won) in daily damages.
Our country HMM(011200)Also, the 24,000 TEU-class super-large container ship Gdansk, leaving Europe and coming to Korea, is waiting without entering the Suez Canal. If the Suez Canal crisis continues until next week, HMM’s two more ships to and from Europe could be tied up. This is limited to HMM’s container ships, and it has been confirmed that other domestic shipping companies such as bulk carriers have not yet suffered damage due to the Suez Canal incident.
The domestic industry is in a position that there is no problem at the moment due to the nature of maritime transport, which has a large transport deadline. However, there are concerns that if the situation prolonged, the nightmare that had suffered export difficulties early this year due to a surge in freight rates for container ships and lack of ships may repeat.
The electronics industry is paying close attention to the situation as to whether or not there will be a disruption in the volume of shipments destined for Europe. Container ships carrying smartphones, household appliances, and TVs produced in factories in Southeast and Southeast Asia must go through the Suez Canal, so if the canal is not operated normally, it is expected that there may be problems with the sales schedule. . Both Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics confirmed that some products were tied to the canal. However, due to the nature of maritime transportation, they are placing orders over a long period of time, so they are not in a situation where major sales outlets such as Western Europe are complaining of lack of stock, they explained. An industry insider said, “If the normal passage of the canal is prolonged for more than a month, it may be a problem, but there is no concern yet.” He said that major companies are also considering securing alternatives, such as overland, considering the time of normalization. In addition, semiconductors, which are the core of Korea’s exports, are exported by airmail, so it is not expected to be affected by this situation.
The automobile industry is concerned about congestion of ships in European imports and exports. Some motor vehicle transport vessels are reported to have been trapped near the Suez Canal. It is known that they are considering taking the South Africa’s Cape of Good Hope route, fearing the situation that the situation will prolong. In this case, it takes about 9 to 10 days to be added, but the fact that the Suez Canal toll is not paid is positively evaluated. As in the electronics industry, delivery of finished vehicles to customers is not expected to be delayed by several months as the delivery deadline is extended.
The refinery industry is in a position to watch the trend as the impact is not significant right now. In the case of the oil refining industry, it is said that the proportion of crude oil from North Sea was only 21.5 million barrels (about 2.2%) of 980 million barrels in Korea, so there was little impact. The chemical industry believes that naphtha prices from Europe may increase in the future as the volume of naphtha from Europe to the Asian market may decrease. However, if the situation is prolonged, it is expected that international oil prices, which have recently been calming down, may rise again. The trading industry has a similar atmosphere to the oil refining industry. As European stocks are not large, even if the situation is prolonged, the damage will not be significant.
However, if the Suez Canal situation prolongs, it is highly likely that shipping freight rates will increase as well as air and land freight rates, which are alternative transportation services. There are concerns that the price of crude oil could soar. An industry insider said, “It took about four days to remove a ship that was about half the size of the Evergiven from the canal. This time, considering that the ship size has doubled and more than 20,000 containers are loaded, at least 8 It will take more than a day,” he explained.
/ Reporters Seo Jong-gap, Lee Soo-min, Park Han-shin, and Han Jae-young [email protected]
/ Reporter Seo Jong-gap [email protected], reporter Lee Su-min [email protected], reporter Park Han-shin [email protected], reporter Han Jae-young [email protected]
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