Special real estate supply measures announced this week… Possibility of designating new housing sites

The government plans to announce comprehensive measures to expand housing supply in Seoul and other metropolitan areas as early as mid-week. The real estate issue is considered to be the main reason that lowered President Moon’s approval rating, so it is a plan to seek to stabilize the real estate market before the Lunar New Year holiday.

Station area, semi-industrial areas, low-rise residential areas, high-density development, public redevelopment and reconstruction, and ways to utilize idle sites are expected to be the main points of this measure. In order to expand the supply of housing on a large scale, a plan to discover additional new housing sites may be included. It is reported that the residential land is being reviewed in small and medium-sized sizes.

If the amount of new residential land in the metropolitan area is added to the high-density development in downtown Seoul, the amount of housing supplied by this measure could be hundreds of thousands of households. Some observers say that it will be difficult to announce the specific location or quantity right away. The 700% floor area ratio, which is considered the core of the countermeasures, is also enforced later than originally planned, and the follow-up work is expected to be completed only in April. Even the scope of the station area has not been confirmed yet.

Detailed procedures for high-density development in the station area still… I can’t even calculate the quantity

According to the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport and the Seoul Metropolitan Government on the 31st, the government will announce measures to supply metropolitan areas such as Seoul as early as this week. February 4th or 5th is influential.

This measure is a special measure that President Moon Jae-in emphasized at a New Year’s press conference on the 18th, “We are focusing on resolving public anxiety with a supply far exceeding the level expected by the market.”

However, the government, local governments, and the market all responded that it is difficult to provide measures to’exceed expectations’.

In this supply plan, it is highly likely to announce an overview of the policies that have been announced to be pursued so far rather than the previous and other new supply plans.

The key points are the high-density development of the station area (a new high-density quasi-residential area) and the lifting of the floor height restrictions for general residential areas. Both methods have been criticized for being a’blind bath policy’ that lacks specific locations, quantities, and action plans because detailed procedures have not been confirmed or have been delayed. It is expected to be difficult to avoid.

In the case of the’multipurpose district unit plan’, which changes the general residential area near the station area to a quasi-residential area and raises the floor area ratio to 700%, the issue is that the enforcement date of the amendment to the relevant law (National Land Planning and Use Act) has been delayed to April. Pointed out.

According to the plan announced at the time of the August 4 measures last year, the revision of the National Statistical Law was originally to be completed by this month, and a research service on the scope of the station area, the location that can be developed, and the specific volume should have been conducted.

An official from the Seoul Metropolitan Government said, “As the revision of the law is delayed, the service is also scheduled to be completed in April.”

In fact, it is difficult to calculate the quantity expected from the high-density development of the station area, as it has not been determined whether the definition of the station area is 350m or 500m from the station exit.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport is reviewing how to use the station area development indicators recently announced by the Institute of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport. It is a data that indexes the remaining floor area ratio around the station area and the land-use composite degree within a certain radius.

The 35th floor rule canceling card’manjiji’ Research service in progress

The city of Seoul is considering a method to increase supply by easing the limit on the number of floors on the 35th floor in general residential areas under the current legal system. This method also requires considerable time to calculate the location or quantity.

City Councilman B of the Urban Planning Management Committee of the Seoul Metropolitan Council said, “(In the press), it seems as if the floor area ratio can be increased to 500~700%, but this is not true.” Do it.”

This is because, if a high-rise building is built in the middle of the city, the surrounding sunlight can be greatly damaged, and the capacity of related infrastructure such as transportation, water supply, and sewage that can be digested in a certain area can be disrupted.

Accordingly, the city of Seoul is currently conducting research services on how increasing the floor area ratio to 500% affects the city in stages, and which places can be designated as high-density general residential areas.

The Seoul City Ordinance, which subdivides or increases the floor area ratio of general residential areas, currently recognized up to 300%, will be revised after the end of this research service. Amendments to related ordinances were proposed in December of last year, but were put on hold.

It is difficult to announce the specific location and volume of the supply plan to be announced this time, considering that it will be re-evaluated in the first schedule of the Seoul City Council, which will start from the beginning of this month.

In the case of public maintenance projects, public redevelopment and reconstruction, which account for 70,000 of the 110,000 households in Seoul’s urban supply countermeasures, are also analyzed that it is difficult to fill the initially expected quantity without the participation of large apartment complexes.

As a result of applying for public maintenance projects mainly for small apartment complexes, the net increase in supply was only 4,000 households even after all the projects in the first pilot project site were completed. Heukseok District 2, the largest of these, has announced his intention to not attend after pre-consulting.

Regarding this, an official from the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport said, “The business conditions of the pilot project site for public redevelopment are under discussion,” and “it has not been decided yet.”

What is the possibility of large-scale supply through the development of new housing sites?

At present, large-scale supply through the development of new housing sites is the most practical option. It is known that small and medium-sized housing sites of the mini-new city level are under active review.

Gwangmyeong and Siheung, Gyeonggi-do are prominently discussed in the area around Seoul. The 17.6 million m2 area in Gwarim-dong, Siheung-si, and Gahak-dong and Hakon-dong in Gwangmyeong-si was designated as a Bogeumjari housing district with a size of 95,000 households in 2010, but the designation was lifted in 2015 after experiencing difficulties in promoting the project due to opposition from residents.

Goyang Daegok District is also a place that can be designated as a residential district due to the increased convenience of housing due to the recent development of the transportation network.

Daegok Station is currently the place where Seoul Subway Line 3 and Gyeongui Jungang Line pass, and in the future, the metropolitan area express train (GTX) line A is scheduled. The size is 1.8㎢, which is larger than the Gwacheon district announced at the time of the 3rd new city.

The possibility of securing public housing districts by loosening the development restriction zone (green belt) in Seoul is unlikely.

Currently, the area of ​​the restricted development zone in Seoul is 149.13㎢, and in the Gangnam area, Seocho-gu is the widest at 23.88㎢, followed by Gangdong-gu (8.17㎢), Gangnam-gu (6.09㎢), and Songpa-gu (2.63㎢).

There are many green belts in the north of Seoul, such as Nowon-gu, Eunpyeong-gu, and Gangbuk-gu, but most of these areas are mountains, making it difficult to develop housing sites. For this reason, after the Lee Myung-bak administration, such as Naegok-dong, Seocho-gu, Segok-dong, Gangnam-gu, and the vicinity of Suseo Station, the remaining land could be designated as new housing sites after developing Bogeumjari houses during the Lee Myung-bak administration.

However, mentioning the lifting of the green belt ahead of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election could be a burden. In order to officially announce that the green belt will be lifted and developed into a residential site, it is necessary to go to the district designation stage, but there is not enough time for this.

Lim Byeong-cheol, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “The government continues to issue supply issues through mid- to long-term plans, but how fast it progresses is the key to success”. “Public fair cost projects and green belts need a process to persuade individual owners. Even if it goes according to plan, it is difficult to stabilize the house price in the short term.”

Large-scale supply measures? “It can only be done with words”

As the countermeasure currently being discussed takes at least four to five years for the housing supply plan to become a reality, there are concerns that the repeated supply countermeasures from last year can only be ended with words. This is because the possibility of realization is unclear except for unclear action plans and estimates.

In order to surpass the’market forecast’, at least 200,000 households must be supplied to downtown Seoul, but it is difficult to fill the originally planned supply if the development of new housing sites is excluded.

Song Suk-joon, a member of the National Land Transport Commission, said, “We have been repeating the previously announced supply measures since last year, but we do not know whether they are being implemented properly.”

The government is also sticking to its stance on reconstruction, redevelopment and transfer tax, which are evaluated as holding back supply expansion. In the short term, it is pointed out that alternatives such as deregulation of private maintenance projects are needed to alleviate the unrest in the housing market, but the government is expected to continue the public initiative.

There is an opinion that the strengthening of the transfer tax should be postponed or eased to open the retreat for multi-homed people, but this will also be pursued as planned.

For this reason, it is pointed out that it is important to proceed with the 3rd new city at a speed rather than finding a new site development site right away.

City and Economy Representative Song Seung-hyun said, “Finding residential areas in Seoul and the metropolitan area to secure supply will take a long time and act as a factor that stimulates the price of houses in nearby areas.” It will be effective in stabilizing the immediate house price by easing and developing high density.”