(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Tae-Jong Kim = Global credit rating agency S&P predicts that Korea’s economic growth rate will be 3.6% this year, and the current policy interest rate will continue until 2022.
[제작 이태호, 최자윤] Photo synthesis, illustration
S&P Asia Pacific Chief Economist Sean Roach said, “This year will be a good year for Korea” at the online seminar ‘2021 Credit Risk Outlook: Balancing Economic Recovery and Debt Growth’ hosted by S&P and Nice Credit Rating on the 27th. The company maintained the 3.6% forecast for this year’s economic growth, which was suggested last year.
“Korea did well last year against the novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19), and exports have remained solid, but the employment recovery has slowed in recent months,” he explained.
He added, “We expect vaccines to be supplied in the third quarter, but it will be difficult for employment to recover normally until the vaccines are supplied,” he said. .
“Exports will grow 4.2% this year and private consumption will increase 4.5%,” he said. “This year, private consumption will lead the Korean economy to recover.”
He said, “The inflation rate is also 0.5%, so the real interest rate is zero,” he said. “In the past, the real interest rate has dropped to -1% and -2%, so the current 0% has eased. I can’t.”
“Even if vaccines are supplied, it will take time to recover employment, increase wages, and inflation. Therefore, economic support measures will continue to be needed.”
However, he added, “If the economic recovery comes out higher than expected, or if the US Fed (Federal Reserve) takes a different policy in the future, the policy interest rate in Korea may change, too.”
“Korea’s national debt level is lower than that of other developed countries,” said Kim En-tan, senior director in charge of national credit ratings in the Asia-Pacific region, and evaluated that the risk of national credit ratings is not significant.
Managing Director Tan said, “The level of debt is low, growth and external balances are solid,” he said. “Unless the performance is very poor in areas such as the fiscal deficit, the possibility of a downgrade is unlikely.”
However, he pointed out, “Even though the level of national debt is low, contingent debt can occur, and the likelihood of such occurrence is higher than in other countries.”
Managing Director Tan said, “For example, if North Korea and North Korea are unified, the level of debt can be tremendous, and if the government gives loans to companies as needed, contingent debt may occur.” There are also costs,” he added.
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2021/01/27 13:16 sent