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For the first time, a population dead cross with more deaths than births occurred. Basically, it is because the number of births and deaths occurred at the same time, but the analysis is that economic recession, job shortages, soaring house prices, and Corona 19 have had a combination of effects.
According to the National Statistical Office’s Population Trend Survey, last year’s natural population growth was -32,700 people. While the number of births reached 272,400, the number of deaths soared to 3,05100. Dead cross was predicted from 2017. That year, the natural growth population fell below 100,000 for the first time. As this trend continued, the first natural decline occurred last year.
The poor reality of young adults lies behind the decline in births. It is said that it is difficult to get married and give birth due to the difficulty of employment and the soaring home prices. Since 2015, the youth unemployment rate has exceeded 9%. It fell from 9.8% in 2016 and 2017 to 8.9% in 2019, and then rose to 9.0% last year. The employment rate fell from 43.5% in 2019 to 42.2% last year. Last year, the number of young people employed was 3763,000, accounting for only 74.1% of the 5076,000 employed in the elderly (over 60).
The median price of apartments in Seoul was 8622 million won last year, up 68.0% from 2015. Young people think that it has become virtually impossible to arrange a house in Seoul without receiving a gift. Experts say that it is a natural outcome for young people who have failed to stabilize their employment and housing to give up marriage and childbirth.
A professor of economics at a university, who requested anonymity, diagnosed, “In the Moon Jae-in administration, the surge in house prices had an absolute impact on the low birth rate.”
It is analyzed that the increase in deaths is due to aging. This can be seen as a natural result of the increasing number of elderly people with high mortality rates. In fact, the rate of increase in the number of deaths is gradually showing below 4%.
Corona 19 has widened the gap between birth and death. Elderly people are exposed to the threat of death from Corona 19, and young people can choose to give up childbirth due to corona uncertainty. However, it was analyzed that statistics up to last year did not reflect this. An official of the National Statistical Office said, “There was no significant increase in deaths due to Corona 19.”
The problem is that this worst’population cliff’ came after an astronomical budget was spent. The government invested a total of 225 trillion won from 2006 to last year to overcome the low birth rate. The budget for responding to low birthrates last year was 40,200 trillion won, a 20-fold increase from 2006 (2.1 trillion won). Experts believe that even now, countermeasures for low birthrate and aging should be re-established from the beginning.
Reporter Kang Jin-kyu [email protected]
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