Input 2021.03.08 17:27 | Revision 2021.03.08 17:38
The government ban policy seems to be the last chance to redeem
From the 9th to the 10th, the subscription to SK Bioscience’s public offering will begin for ordinary individual investors for two days. The public offering amount alone reached 1.491.7 billion won, which is considered the first big fish in the IPO market this year.
SK Biosciences in 2018 SK chemicals (285130)SK Chemicals is a vaccine specialized company spun off from SK Chemicals and owns a 98.04% stake. When the public offering is over, SK Chemicals’ stake will decrease to 68.43%. SK Bioscience is a company in charge of distribution and storage of corona vaccines in Korea. Vaccines such as AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Pfizer vaccines are stored and distributed through SK Bioscience.
The public offering price was confirmed last week at 65,000 won, the highest level after forecasting demand from institutional investors. Application for competition is the representative organizer NH Investment & Securities (005940)It is held at the same time at 6 securities companies, including Korea Investment & Securities, which is the co-organizer of the company.
Since the government (Financial Commission) introduced an equal distribution method last year so that individual investors who subscribe for small amounts are not disadvantaged, SK Bioscience applicants can receive the following benefits.
The financial investment industry predicts that even if you apply for a public offering with only about 300,000 won in a securities company, you will be able to receive more than one share. However, like SK BioPharm and Kakao Games, which recorded a’tasang’ on the first day of last year’s transaction (double the offering price, and go directly to the upper limit), SK Bioscience is skeptical of whether it will be able to record a big prize There is also a perspective.
Applications for public offerings starting on the 9th are the representative organizers, NH Investment & Securities, and the co-organizers, Korea Investment & Securities. Mirae Asset Daewoo (006800), The acquired company SK Securities (001510), Samsung Securities (016360), Hana Financial Investment and other six securities companies.
Subscriptions are processed by dividing the amount allocated by securities companies in half. 50% of the allocation amount is allocated (proportional allocation), and the rest is equalized.
The’proposal allocation’ is a method of receiving more public offering stocks as the more subscription margin is added and the lower the subscription competition rate of the securities company that has applied for subscription. For example, if the competition rate of a securities company that Investor A subscribes to is 100 to 1, even if you subscribe to 1000 shares, only 10 shares are allocated by dividing by the competition rate. The lower the competition rate and the larger the number of subscription applications, the greater the amount of public offering stocks that can be actually received.
‘Equal allocation’ is a method of giving the same number of public offering stocks by dividing the allocated amount equally to all investors who have subscribed for more than the minimum subscription size. Regardless of the subscription margin, if you subscribe for more than 10 weeks, which is the minimum subscription unit, all of them can receive the same amount of equal allocation.
In order to subscribe for 10 weeks, it is necessary to put 325,000 won, which is half of the offer amount of 650,000 won (10 times the offer price of 65,000 won), as the subscription margin. If the number of public offering stocks allocated to securities companies by equal allocation is 500,000 shares, and there are 500,000 subscription applicants, all subscription applicants receive one week each. In the financial investment industry, even if the competition rate is high, it is expected that at least one week will be allocated if the subscription is applied in an even allocation method.
However, it is not necessary for investors to separately subscribe to equal distribution or allocation. If you put in the subscription margin and subscribe, you will receive stocks allocated according to the size of the subscription margin and the competition rate, and additional stocks provided according to the method of calculating the equal distribution.
Subscriptions can be applied at all six securities companies. The Financial Services Commission is preparing a system that prevents duplicate subscriptions while the public offering stock subscription is overheating, because this SK Bioscience receives subscriptions before the system is completed. The financial investment industry expects that SK Bioscience will become the last public offering stock for multiple subscriptions as a large fish class IPO, as the government plans to create a duplicate subscription prevention system in the first half of the year.
An official at a securities company said, “I know that among small investors, there are many people who strategically put a minimum subscription of 325,000 won in all six.”
◇ In order to receive more, you need to look at the allocation amount and competition rate of securities companies.
It is also important to check the amount of equal distribution of each securities company, as it is expected that small investors will flock to the target even if only 10 shares, which is the minimum subscription unit, are subject to equal distribution. In addition, it is necessary to look at the subscription competition rate by securities company. The more equally allocated quantity and the lower the subscription competition rate, the more public offering stocks can be received.
For each company, NH Investment & Securities is the largest at 2.86 million,8750 shares, and Samsung Securities (14,3437 to 170,125 shares) is the lowest. There are many securities companies that have not yet determined the equal amount of allocation, but each securities company discloses the equal amount of allocation on the 9th.
You should also look at the maximum amount of subscription per person for each company. In the distribution system, if you put in a lot of subscription margin, you can receive more public offerings, so if you have extra money, it is advantageous if you subscribe as much as possible.
When looking at the maximum subscription amount per person, NH Investment & Securities has the largest number of 250,000 shares (based on the most preferred customer), Korea Investment & Securities has 156,000 shares, and Samsung Securities has 34,000 shares. There are many securities companies that have not yet confirmed the maximum amount of subscription due to the number of employee stock ownership associations, etc., so it is necessary to check the maximum amount of each securities company before applying for a public offering subscription on the 9th.
SK Bioscience’s share price is expected to rise significantly after the public offering, and there are many investors preparing to subscribe by creating an account in the name of a child or spouse. They are people who are trying to put money into the offer for a public offering with the expectation that they will be’tasang’ on the first day of the transaction.
Mr. Park, a 42-year-old office worker, said, “Six people, including parents, two children, and spouse, made 36 accounts at six securities companies.” “We plan to drive the rest of the investments we have prepared now so that we can receive a lot of public offering stocks even in the proportional method (provisional allocation),” he said.
Housewife Lee Min-jung (35, Seocho-gu, Seoul) also said, “I haven’t tried investing in public stocks before, but recently, I talked a lot about SK Bioscience, and this time I created an account for NH Investment Securities. There are a lot of people who use an account to sign up.”
However, in the financial investment industry, there is also an analysis that the corporate value of SK Bioscience will not increase significantly in the public offering. In addition, the current decline in the share prices of the pharmaceutical and bio industries is a problem for investors of SK Bioscience’s public offering stocks.
According to the financial investment industry, if SK Bioscience’s corporate value is analyzed by absolute valuation using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, a market capitalization of about 5.4 trillion won is expected. Relative valuation using a valuation multiple is expected to reach a market cap of W12~16tr.
Absolute valuation is a method of evaluating the enterprise value by summing the expected cash flows of a company, and relative valuation is a method of analyzing enterprise value based on relative valuation indicators such as the price-earnings ratio (PER).
If the public offering price of 65,000 won is applied to SK Bioscience’s total number of 76.5 million shares, the market cap is 4,972.5 billion won. If SK Bioscience’s share price is formed at around 7600 won, the market cap will increase to 5.4 trillion won calculated from the absolute valuation. This is about 5600 won (8.6%) higher than the public offering price.
The stock price to increase the market capitalization to 16 trillion won, the top of the corporate value calculated by relative valuation, is around 209,100 won, and the public offering should be 14,100 won (221.6%) higher than 65,000 won. However, even in this case, it is significantly lower than the stock price of 169,000 won, which is the first day investors expect.
Seo Geun-hee, a researcher at Samsung Securities, explained, “The case of evaluating the corporate value through a relative valuation method is a relatively high level of corporate value for SK Bioscience, which is a market cap of 12-16 trillion won.”
SK Bioscience’s share price is also expected to be affected by the decline in the share prices of bio-pharmaceutical companies such as pharmaceuticals due to the rise in US Treasury yields. With the recent rise in US interest rates, the stock prices of bio-pharmaceutical companies, which are largely concentrated in leading growth stocks, are falling. According to the Korea Exchange, the drug index fell 2030.4 points (10.2%) in one month from 19,865.86 (closed price) on February 5 to 17,835.46 on March 5.