It was found that a tighter composition was formed in which the ruling party, the opposition party, and the floating class were divided into 3 parts ahead of the by-election of the Seoul and Busan mayors held in April this year. Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly Party, ran first in the degree of fitness for a single candidate for the mayor of Seoul.
In a poll conducted by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN in New Year’s Day, a survey conducted by Maeil Business Newspaper and MBN asked ‘Which party would you like to win the re-election in Seoul and Busan?’ It was 28.1% and showed super close combat within the error range. 27.9% of the non-governmental respondents answered’I don’t know’ or did not respond, and it is expected that the votes of the floating class will be divided depending on which candidates the opposition parties nominated for and how the election strategy is implemented over the next three months.
CEO Ahn Cheol-soo has laid the groundwork for driving the’popular theory of Ahn Cheol-soo’ from the beginning of the year by ranking first in the suitability of a single candidate for opposition in the Maeil Economic Daily and MBN survey as well as various surveys conducted at the beginning of the year. Representative Ahn gained 23.9% of the fitness for a single candidate for the opposition of the mayor of Seoul, more than doubled other candidates, including former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won (11.1%) and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon (11%).
Regarding the performance of President Moon Jae-in’s five-year-old state administration, negative evaluations (52.8%) preceded positive evaluations (42.9%). I chose. In addition, when asked about policies that did well during the four years in office,’nothing’ (44%) took first place.
In terms of preference for the next presidential election, the Democratic Party candidates such as Gyeonggi Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong (21.9%) and Lee Nak-yeon (15.3%) were far ahead of the People’s Power candidates.
This poll was conducted for two days on the 28th to 29th of last month by extracting safe numbers (wireless) after allocation according to the proportion of the population by gender, age, and region. 1,000 respondents, and at a 95% confidence level, the sample error is ±3.10% points. More detailed survey results can be found on the website of the Central Election Commission.
[박만원 기자]
Which party do you want to win in April?… 28% of democracy and 28% of the people’s strength
Maekyung·MBN National Opinion Survey
The non-response floating layer also reached 28%
The approval ratings are tight despite the successive bad news
Seoul citizens raise their hands to the ruling party
Take a solo run with 43% of the people’s strength on the Busan Line
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The public sentiment for the victory of the opposition parties in the Seoul-Busan mayoral by-election held on April 7 this year appeared to be intense. As the single candidate for the conservative opposition, Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly Party, received the highest support. According to a poll conducted by Metrics Research, commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN on the 3rd, the Democratic Party 28.3% and the people’s power 28.1%, along with the question of’Which party wants to win the Seoul-Busan by-election in April?’ This was followed by the People’s Party 5.0%, the Justice Party 4.7%, and the Open Democratic Party 2.8%. Even if the political parties that are discussing the possibility of unifying candidates in the future are added, the pan-passport (and the Democratic Party and the Open Democratic Party) and the conservative opposition (the People’s Power and the People’s Party) are 31.1% and 33.1%, respectively, and it was found that they were close to each other.
Although the Moon Jae-in administration and the ruling party’s “real estate policy” and “discipline of Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol” have been controversial, it can be seen that the “regime judgment theory” still does not form an overwhelming public opinion. It is also interpreted that trust in current conservative opposition parties, which focus on criticism rather than alternatives, is not high. This public sentiment is represented by the fact that the percentage of unknown and non-responding to the party that wants to win was 27.9%.
When looking at Seoul, where the elections are held, the opinion that the Democratic Party wants to win is more than the people’s strength within the margin of error. In Seoul, the Democratic Party was 31.3% and the people’s power was 26.8%. The percentage of people who wanted the victory of the National Assembly Party, which Cheol-soo Ahn, who was running for election, was 7.1%, somewhat higher than the national survey rate. On the other hand, in Busan, 42.8% of public opinion wanted to win the power of the people and only 16.9% of the Democratic Party. However, as the percentage of unknown or unanswered in Seoul and Busan accounted for 23.7% and 22.3%, respectively, the ruling and opposition candidates were confirmed, and there is a possibility that the election market may fluctuate in the future depending on whose hands the non-governmental voters serve.
In the category of single candidate for opposition, which became the biggest issue of conservative political parties in the Mayor of Seoul, President Ahn took first place by defeating politicians under the power of the people outside the margin of error. In the case of unification, 23.9% of the respondents cited Representative Ahn in a questionnaire surveying suitable opposition candidates. Former lawmaker Na Gyeong-won took the second place with 11.1%, and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon of the same party was 11.0%. This was followed by former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop (3.2%), former lawmaker Lee Hye-hoon (2.2%), and Cho Eun-hee, head of Seocho-gu, Seoul (1.2%). The percentage of no candidates to support also came out at 35.1%.
In celebration of the new year, as President Ahn appears as the most suitable candidate for the opposition in the Maeil Economic Daily and MBN survey following public opinion polls conducted by major media and research institutions, tensions in the passport, which are experiencing a recent decline in approval ratings, are expected to increase. In the passport, Democratic Party Rep. Woo Sang-ho, Park Ju-min and Park Young-sun, Minister of Small and Medium Venture Business, are among the leading candidates, but Park and Rep. Park have not yet expressed their intention to run.
Looking at the respondents from Seoul, Ahn’s approval rate was 24.0%, similar to the national approval rate. Oh, the former mayor was second in Seoul with 13.3%, and former lawmaker I was third with 10.1%. Among those who want the power of the people to win in the election, 36.2% of Representative Ahn, 24.8% of former lawmakers and 14.9% of former Mayors were counted. Among the conservatives, Ahn 29.9%, former lawmaker 20.9%, and former market 11.4%.
Taking these results together, if the Mayor Oh refuses to run for the mayor of Seoul with the next presidential election in mind, it can be a major variable to whom the center and conservative votes who supported him will be directed. Former Mayor Oh has formed an 11~15% support for those who are highly interested in unifying opposition candidates.
[채종원 기자]
What did President Wen do well for 4 years? “No” 44%… Corona quarantine is positive
Maekyung·MBN National Opinion Survey
State evaluation 42% positive, 52% negative
Seoul·Busan negative evaluation is particularly high
‘Job dissatisfaction’ top 20 approval rating
#1 erroneous policy `real estate` 42%
Fall Conflict, Fatigue,’The Old Reform’ 2nd Place
![The 21st National Assembly ended its first year in office and celebrated the new year. Expectations were high with the birth of the 180-seat ruling party, but approval ratings are plummeting as negative public opinion about the ruling party's solo legislative action spreads. The red light on Olympic Avenue seems to send a warning message to the National Assembly. [김호영 기자]](https://i0.wp.com/file.mk.co.kr/meet/neds/2021/01/image_readbot_2021_4361_16096818154494576.jpg?w=560&ssl=1)
The 21st National Assembly ended its first year in office and celebrated the new year. Expectations were high with the birth of the 180-seat ruling party, but approval ratings are plummeting as negative public opinion about the ruling party’s solo legislative action spreads. The red light on Olympic Avenue seems to send a warning message to the National Assembly. [김호영 기자] The public’s evaluation of President Moon Jae-in, who is in his fifth year in office, was generally negative. According to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN’s New Year 2021 to Matrix, an opinion polling agency, when asked,’What do you think of President Moon’s performance of state affairs’, the positive evaluation was 42.9% and negative evaluation was 52.8%. The evaluation was about 10 percentage points higher.
After the inauguration of President Moon,’Nothing’ (44%) recorded the highest answer rate to the question’What do you think did the best when evaluating the last four years?’ The next highest response rate was’Corona 19 Prevention’ (16.2%), and the gap with No. 1 was nearly three times.
This was followed by’Expanding the welfare and social safety net’ (14.4%),’Prosecution reform’ (12.8%), and’Inter-Korean relations’ (6.1%), and only 0.5% and 2.9% chose real estate and economic policies, respectively. did. Since the inauguration of the current government, much attention has been paid to the reform of the prosecution and the peace process between the two Koreas, but it is noteworthy as the result of the response that relatively few people think this is a great achievement. In particular, 72.9% of the people who criticized the support for the performance of the president’s state administration answered that there was nothing well done, indicating extreme dissatisfaction with President Moon. In the case of those who gave a positive evaluation to President Moon,’corona prevention’ and’prosecution reform’ were the highest.
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Regarding the question,’what do you think the President did the most wrong,’ the percentage of responding’real estate’ was by far the highest at 42.1%. It is interpreted that this is a dissatisfaction with the fact that it has become more difficult to arrange a house, as the rise in housing prices in Seoul and the metropolitan area has not stopped even though 24 real estate measures have been introduced since the government was launched. In the case of seniors and elderly people in their 50s and above, where the rate of fraudulent evaluation against President Moon is always the highest, 39.6% in their 50s and 33.6% in their 60s and above pointed out that real estate was a problem. A high percentage of people in their 40s pointed out that real estate was a problem that President Moon had wronged. According to the results of the survey, 52.6% of those in their 30s who answered that the thing that President Moon did the most wrong was real estate, and 50.9% of those in their 40s recorded a higher response rate than those of the elderly and the elderly. There is strong negative public opinion about real estate policy in the age groups most sensitive to home arrangements and real estate.
Following real estate, President Moon’s error was’Prosecution Reform’ (14.7%). The confrontation between former Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae and Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol seems to have been quite exhausted by the confrontation.
In the evaluation of COVID-19 quarantine and vaccine security, 56.3% of the respondents said that they are doing very well and are doing relatively well, compared to the total (42%) of responding that they are doing relatively wrong and are doing very wrong. It came out high. Since last month, the number of confirmed cases of Corona 19 in Korea has increased sharply, but it is interpreted as a result of a somewhat lessened sense of crisis as President Moon made a direct call to a global pharmaceutical company representative to secure a vaccine. In particular, women (60.5%), in their 40s (67.4%), and the Gwangju area (86.2%) showed a much higher proportion of positive responses than the average.
When looking at the evaluation of President Moon’s performance of state affairs by age group, the elderly and the elderly were more negative than the average, and those in their 30s and 40s gave a positive evaluation. However, it is noteworthy that the 20s, who were strong supporters of the current government, gave Park Han evaluation (47% negative) of President Moon. It is interpreted that the support of President Moon has declined greatly from the twenties who have a lot of troubles such as job problems for young people and the arrangement of my home.
By region, in Seoul, where the by-election is held this year, the negative evaluation of President Moon was higher than the average by 53.6%, and the percentage of respondents to the negative evaluation of Busan, the Yeongnam region, reached 62.3%.
With passports for mayoral elections in Seoul and Busan in April, concerns about the fraudulent evaluation of the execution of the state administration of the local president intensified. In the Yeongnam region, such as Daegu, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam, the negative evaluation of the presidential administration was higher than that of other regions, while the negative evaluation of the Chungnam region was 64.7%, which was higher than that of Busan.
Such negative public opinion on President Moon can be seen as a natural’lame duck’ phenomenon that appears in the second half under the five-year single-term presidential system. However, the fact that the highest rate of answering “no” to the question of what did President Moon do well for four years in office at 44 percent shows that the extreme negative public opinion against the president is substantial.
[박인혜 기자]
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