Se-Hoon Oh and Chul-Soo Ahn, who laughs… 3,200 people who answer the phone decide

The dice for unifying opposition candidates, the biggest variable in the Seoul Mayor’s by-election, were thrown. On the 21st, Candidate Se-hoon Oh and People’s Party Candidate Chul-soo Ahn finally agreed on a poll method for deciding a single candidate. The last person to face the Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon with the’Bum Conservative/Anti-Moon Jae-in signboard’ will be announced on the 23rd or 24th after a poll on the 22nd and 23rd. Candidate Oh and Ahn promised, “I will unconditionally accept the results of the polls.”

Unified method: 100% mobile phone, half and half of competitiveness and suitability

After 12 days of practical negotiations, the polls agreed between Candidate Oh and Ahn are as follows. ① No wired phone (home phone) is included, only 100% of respondents who responded by wireless phone (based on mobile phone and Central Election Commission’s safety number) are surveyed. ② The total number of respondents is 3,200, and 1,600 are asked about the suitability of the mayor of Seoul, and the other 1,600 are asked about the competitiveness of the finals. ③ Two companies specialized in public opinion polls conduct telephone interviews at the same time and add up the results.

Both sides did not disclose the questionnaire questions to be asked of the polls for reasons of controversy about fairness. Instead of asking only’Sehun Oh’ and’Cheolsoo Ahn’, it is reported that the name of the political party to which they belong (Candidate Se-hoon Oh, Candidate Cheol-Soo Ahn Nationalist Party) and not to mention’Democratic Party candidate Park Young-seon’ in the question is said to have been agreed.

In the meantime, Candidate Oh has demanded’a method of including some wired telephones and asking the degree of suitability of the mayor of Seoul. This was taken in consideration of the fact that people who receive home phone calls during the day are likely to be conservative elderly people, and that they are advantageous in terms of suitability for their career as mayor of Seoul for re-election.

Candidate Ahn has insisted on’a method of excluding any wireline phones and asking about the competitiveness of the main line’. It was based on the calculation that he was relatively superior to the young and middle class.

Both sides, which ran the parallel line, stepped back little by little as concerns over the loss of unification grew. Candidate Oh gave up landline phone calls, and Candidate Ahn accepted the suitability survey.

Is it good or bad? Oh Se-hoon, who gave up on landline phone, gave up’a little’ more

In the political world, it is evaluated that Candidate Oh gave a little more concessions. Kim Ji-yeon, CEO of Casestat Research, said, “If you do a wireline phone survey, about two-thirds of all respondents have conservative responses.” Although Candidate Oh has the image of a “middle”, it is highly likely that the conservative class will regard him as a “conservative enemy” and drive support.

Competitiveness and suitability are difficult to assess right away. According to the results of a joint opinion poll of KBS, MBC, and SBS, which was released on the 21st, in a bilateral survey of fitness, candidate Oh was 34.4%, candidate Ahn 34.3%, and candidate Oh 39.0% and candidate Ahn 37.3% in a bilateral survey on competitiveness. . Within the margin of error (±3.1%), the two candidates met tightly. This is a result contrary to the prospect that the suitability survey will be relatively advantageous to Candidate Oh and the competitiveness research to Ahn.

A public opinion poll expert explained, “It is common that candidates with strong identity in their camp (Candidate Oh) are advantageous in the adequacy survey, and candidates who are well-recognized by general voters (Candidate Ahn) are advantageous in a competitive survey.”

Some estimates that the unification method has gone beyond the stage that will affect the outcome. Tae-gon Yoon, Director of The Moa Political Analysis Dept., said, “As the media reports on the unification of the opposition have become a situation where all students know how the exam questions will be presented, variables other than the rules will have an impact, such as who is perceived to have made a lot of concessions. I can,” he said.

As early as the afternoon of the 23rd, a single candidate announced… Oh, Ahn “Even if we lose, we will succumb”

The polls selected by both sides start polls at 10 am on the 22nd. An opposition official explained, “When the target sample is filled and completed on the 22nd, the announcement will be made on the 23rd, and if it proceeds by the morning of the 23rd, the announcement will be made on the 24th.”

Immediately after the agreement on the unification method, Candidate Oh and Candidate Ahn made public promises, “We will accept the results.” It means that on the 25th, the start of the mayoral election campaign in Seoul, only one of them will appear on the campaign site. Candidate Oh met with reporters and said, “When a single candidate is decided, from then on, we will become one camp and one body to help each other and hold an election to run together, and to run the city with our strength. Candidate Ahn also said, “No matter who becomes a single candidate, we promised to join forces and win by all means. It has created a good condition to compete with the ruling party in unison.”

As candidates who disagree with the result of unification are branded as’traitors’ of the conservative camp, there is a high possibility that the two candidates will keep their promises at this time.

Hyunbin Kim reporter [email protected]

Wondara reporter [email protected]

Jaeyeon Park reporter [email protected]

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