Citizens are being tested for Corona 19 at the Busanjin-gu public health center on the afternoon of the 5th. The number of serial infections from entertainment establishments in Busan continues to increase. yunhap news
The ‘4th pandemic’ of a novel coronavirus infection (Corona 19) is becoming a reality. While the number of new confirmed cases per day is expected to exceed 500 for the time being, the spread of a mutant virus, which is known to have stronger transmission power than the existing virus, and which is known to reduce the vaccine effect, is not serious. If the 4th outbreak begins before the wave of the 3rd outbreak calms down, the impact can be even greater.
400 people just before the stagnation period broke
According to the Central Defense Countermeasure Headquarters on the 5th, the average number of new corona19 patients per day in the last week of March (March 28 to April 3) was 495.4. This is an increase of 56.8 people (13%) from the previous week (438.6 people). The average daily number of patients per week for nearly a month showed a stagnant period in the range of 400. There were 432.1 as little as 445.9 as many as 445.9. However, rather than breaking this stagnation, it is an atmosphere of spreading. Bang Dae-bon releases risk assessment indicators every Monday. At the time of the announcement on the 12th, it is highly likely that the average daily number of patients per week will rise to the ‘500s’. Despite the impact of the weekend when the test volume decreased, the number of new corona19 patients appeared on the 4th and 473 on the 5th.
On the afternoon of the 4th, while the cherry blossom paths are controlled at Yeouiseo, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, cherry blossom leaves that fell due to the rain the previous day are covering the floor. yunhap news
“The 4th epidemic may have already begun”
Looking at the past 1st~3rd (large) trend, it reached a low point and followed by the next trend. The lowest point during the third epidemic in which up to 1,240 new patients per day poured out was on February 8 (at the time, 288). Since then, the number of new patients has steadily increased to 300 and 400, and recently, around 500 patients are being recorded every day. Jeong Jae-hoon, a professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University Medical School, said, “The fourth epidemic may have already begun. It is not a pessimistic prediction.” “Corona 19 cannot be carried out with the same intensity of countermeasures such as infectious diseases or social distancing, which have a very high propagation power. Because of this, it can appear at any time (lower the level). The trend curve has recently risen.”
Corona 19 infection reproduction index rises again. Graphic = Reporter Jaemin Shin [email protected]
The weekly average of the infection reproduction index exceeded ‘1’. It was counted as 1.07. It is in all areas including the metropolitan area. If it is 1 or more, it is judged as the spread of the outbreak. If it is less than 1, it is a suppression of fashion. This is the first time it has passed 1 since December 13-19 last year. “The infection reproductive index evaluated last week was 1.07, exceeding 1,” said Eun-kyung Chung, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) on the 5th. I’m looking to do it,” he said. Commissioner Chung predicted, “We believe that the spreading trend will continue unless the quarantine measures are strengthened.” Minister of Health and Welfare Kwon Deok-cheol (Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters 1st Deputy Head) said in a speech to the public on the previous day (4th), “If the outbreak is spreading again, with an average of 500 patients a day, it is prevalent to more than 1,000 people a day within a short time. It could be big,” he worried.
The rate of mutant infected people slightly increased
Even mutant virus is emergency. Daebon Bang analyzed the full-length genes of 494 corona19 confirmed patients infected in the local community since the 29th of last month and confirmed that 22 (4.5%) were additionally infected with the mutant virus. In the same analysis about a month ago, 9 out of 222 (4.1%). Compared to the analysis of confirmed cases, the proportion of mutant infected patients increased slightly.
Currently, mutation analysis is performed on some confirmed patients. The amount of analysis compared to the number of patients is about 12%. The common view of infectious disease experts is that if the analysis amount is increased, more mutant virus infected patients will be identified.
Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun is presiding over a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters in response to Corona 19 held at the government office in Seoul on the 4th. yunhap news
Prevention of loosening in spring
The situation is like this, but the quarantine consciousness has loosened in the spring season. The number of mobile phones measured on the 30th of last month was 33.95 million cases nationwide. 250,000 more than a week ago. The amount of mobile phone movement is detected when a user visits an administrative dong in another city, county, or ward and stays for more than 30 minutes.
The government said it could strengthen quarantine measures if the number of new patients showed signs of increasing to 500-600. The distance steps to be applied next week will be announced on the 9th. Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun said at a meeting of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters held on the 4th, “If the spread of this week does not stop, we may have to consider more intensive quarantine measures.”
Reporter Minwook Kim [email protected]
