Real estate statistics that have been mixed since the new year… Experts “It is not a slowdown in the rising trend”

Enter 2021.01.19 06:00

How is the real estate market moving in the new year? As two investigative agencies, which publish weekly apartment price trends, recently presented conflicting diagnoses, doubts about the real estate market situation are growing. The Korea Real Estate Agency announced that the nationwide increase in apartment prices was slowing, and KB Real Estate diagnosed that the rise was accelerating. Experts who feel the flow of the housing market with their skin said, “At least the bull market does not seem to be broken,” and “Seller’s advantage continues and the price itself is still rising even though the transaction volume has decreased.”

According to the real estate industry on the 19th, the statistics of’weekly apartment (housing) price trend’ in the second week of January each released by the Korea Real Estate Agency and KB Real Estate increased the increase from the previous week in four areas nationwide, the metropolitan area, five metropolitan cities, and localities. Whether it was reduced or not appeared differently.

According to the statistics of the Korea Real Estate Agency, the rate of increase in apartment prices by district in the second week of January was reduced from that of Jeonju or remained at the same level as Jeonju. Specifically, △ 0.27% nationwide → 0.25% △ 0.26% → 0.26% in metropolitan areas △ 0.37% → 0.32% in five metropolitan cities △ 0.28% → 0.25% in localities. It was found that the rise in the local real estate market was somewhat reduced.

On the other hand, according to KB Real Estate statistics, the rise in apartment prices during the same period was wider than in the previous week. Specifically, △0.34% nationwide → 0.41% △ Metropolitan area 0.42% → 0.51% △5 metropolitan cities 0.28%→0.32% △local 0.20%→0.21%. It was found that the rise in the metropolitan area and five metropolitan cities increased again.

The reason that the statistics produced by the two organizations show different trends as well as absolute values ​​is due to the differences in the samples. The number of apartment samples that the Korea Real Estate Agency uses for weekly surveys is 9,400. On the other hand, KB Real Estate uses 34,495 apartments nationwide as a sample. The proportion of new apartments leading the price increase in the sample is also different. The weekly survey of the Korea Real Estate Agency revealed that the proportion of new apartments was smaller than that of KB Real Estate.

Experts believe that real estate prices are generally continuing to rise, while the rise is growing.

Dae-Jung Kwon, a professor at the Graduate School of Real Estate at Myongji University, said, “The current market is in a situation where the rise is accelerating again while the number of sales is low according to KB Real Estate statistics.” “There is no sign of a slowdown in the market,” said Ham Young-jin, head of Jikbang Big Data Lab.

Dongguk University adjunct professor Ko Jun-suk said, “Amid the jeonse crisis, the seller’s dominant market is still continuing, especially in Seoul.” I am concerned about that.”

Lim Byeong-cheol, senior researcher at Real Estate 114, said, “The price increase continues around the outskirts of Seoul, and from the end of the year, the rise in housing prices in downtown Seoul is gaining momentum due to the favorable maintenance business.” “Real Estate 114 is also writing statistics on its own through affiliated real estate, At least, it doesn’t appear that the uptrend is slowing down.”

Meanwhile, in the’Regular Statistical Quality Assessment Report’ for the Korea Real Estate Agency in December of last year, the National Statistical Office reported that △the sample of the weekly survey was small △The proportion of new apartments was low in the weekly survey △An error occurred due to the cognitive convenience of the investigator. It was recommended to improve what can be done. Accordingly, the Korea Real Estate Agency announced that it would increase the sample of apartments used for weekly surveys to 32,000 households.

However, as it takes time to redesign the sample, the’number difference’ between the two research institutes is expected to continue for some time. An official from the Korea Real Estate Agency said, “The sample currently used for the housing price trend survey has not changed from last year’s sample yet,” and said, “It will be possible to produce statistics surveyed with an expanded sample only in the middle of this year.”