North Korea held a groundbreaking ceremony to build 10,000 houses in the capital Pyongyang on the 23rd, Chosun JoongAng TV reported on the 24th. Chairman Kim is watching the scene of the groundbreaking ceremony with binoculars. Chosun Joongang TV capture Yonhap News
After the inauguration of Joe Biden’s U.S. administration, North Korea launched its first short-range missile and held an armed demonstration. They chose cruise missiles with a lower level of threat than ballistic missiles and controlled the level of provocation. This is an expected procedure that is conscious of the change of US regime and ROK-US combined military exercises (ROK-US training), and it is expected to gradually increase the level according to the US reaction in the future.
Biden’s administration criticizes human rights in North Korea
According to the military and intelligence authorities on the 24th, North Korea test-launched two cruise missiles from the Onsen area of South Pyongan Province on the morning of the 21st to the west sea in the direction of China. On April 14, last year, North Korea launched several short-range cruise missiles from the area of Muncheon, Gangwon-do to the East Sea. Last year it was towards the US and Japan, but this time towards China.
North Korea’s missile launch is often interpreted as a warning or dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s administration. This is because US Secretary of State Tony Blincoln deliberately criticized the’human rights issue’ that North Korea is extremely sensitive to on his Asian tour, and it was just after the high-level talks between the United States and China. It is no wonder that a North Korean businessman was handed over to the United States and tried for violating sanctions against North Korea, and the UN Human Rights Council adopted the North Korean Human Rights Resolution. Moreover, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un called for a “stop training” at the party conference in January. As a result, observations have been steadily raised that before and after the ROK-US training, it can respond to more than a’horse bomb’.
A new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was carried on a mobile launch vehicle (TEL) with 11 axes (22 wheels on both sides) at the ’75th anniversary celebration of the founding of the Chosun Workers Party’ held at Kim Ilseong Square in Pyongyang on October 10, 2020. Pyongyang=Labor Newspaper Newsis
Why cruise missiles?…
The traces of the North Korean side’s distress are read in choosing a cruise missile rather than a ballistic missile during an armed demonstration. Due to the short range of cruise missiles, it is difficult to reach US territory and does not violate the resolution of the UN Security Council toward North Korea. This is why Hanmi did not immediately disclose or respond to this provocation as’low intensity’. Han-beom Cho, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, “Former President Donald Trump did not take issue with ballistic missiles in the case of’short-range’, but the Biden administration does not know how it will come out.” It seems that the water level was adjusted for this reason.”
Some interpretations say that they were conscious of the’Milwall between North Korea and China’ against the pressure of the United States. Recently, Chairman Kim Jong-un has strengthened his will to cooperate by exchanging oral letters with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). However, if military tensions around the Korean peninsula rise, even China’s position will become difficult, leading to a disruption in economic aid to North Korea. “If North Korea clearly violates the resolution of the Security Council, it becomes difficult for China to defend against demands for additional sanctions as a permanent member,” said Choi Yong-hwan, a senior research fellow at the National Security Strategy Institute. Threat” he explained.
Next is ICBM?… Possibility of phased provocation
North Korea did not disclose the missile launch to internal and external media. It has not been confirmed whether Chairman Kim was present. It is interpreted to give the impression of’normal training’, not a provocative act.
However, North Korea has clarified the principle toward the United States, which is’gang vs. river and good vs. good’. It is highly likely that a traditional scenario that raises the level of provocation in line with the US response in the future will be reproduced. Therefore, the possibility of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the US mainland cannot be excluded. Senior Research Fellow Choi predicted, “If the Biden administration’s review of North Korea policy is over and the conflict continues to rise due to human rights issues, North Korea will raise the level of provocation step by step, as it has done in the past.”
Kang Yoobin reporter [email protected]
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