[서울=뉴스핌] Reporter Dong-Hoon Lee = President Moon Jae-in emphasized a special supply plan to stabilize the real estate market at a New Year’s press conference on the 18th, and it is noteworthy whether the uncertainty about the house price and jeonse price will be resolved in a short period of time.
First of all, if you look at what President Moon said, it is highly likely that a large-scale housing supply plan will be introduced. To this end, in addition to the existing countermeasures, new designation of housing districts and the lifting of the green belt (restricted development area) in the Seoul area are discussed. There are also observations that a plan that exceeds the market’s expectations, such as the designation of an additional 3rd new city, is being reviewed.
The industry expects that the housing market anxiety caused by supply shortages will be stabilized to some extent if supply measures to be released before the Lunar New Year are implemented at a speedy pace.
◆ Candidates for large-scale housing supply plans, such as lifting the green belt and designating a residential district
According to the politics and real estate industry on the 18th, President Moon’s special supply plan scheme is predicted to be promising in the industry to lift the green belt and designate a new residential district.
President Moon is expected to focus on large-scale housing supply, as President Moon announced that he will come up with an alternative that exceeds the market’s prospects in the housing supply plan to be announced before the Lunar New Year. In particular, as it is expected to continue the existing stance of public-led initiatives, green belts and housing districts with a high proportion of government-owned land, and additional designation of the third new city are discussed.
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A key official from the ruling party said, “In addition to the measures reviewed with the existing housing supply plan, the relevant ministries are discussing all the means to increase supply led by the government, such as the release of some areas of the green belt and designation of new cities,” and “The president has been specially selected several times As we emphasized the supply measures of the company, all plans to expand effective housing supply are subject to review.”
As a candidate area for the green belt lift, the Gangnam area is ranked first. This is because the development area is large and the number of consumers is large, and the symbolism is also large.
In the areas where the green belt is expected to be lifted, the housing supply effect is expected to be great. It is one of Topseong Village (17,488㎡). These areas are representative collective settlement districts. The collective settlement district is a district designated to rearrange settlements within the green belt, and there are 24 in Seoul. The Gangnam Driver’s License Test Center in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu and the Reserve Force Training Center in Naegok-dong, Seocho-gu are also strong candidates.
There is a possibility that the housing district will be newly designated. Gwangmyeong and Siheung, Gyeonggi-do are prominently discussed in the area around Seoul. This area was designated as a planned Bogeumjari housing district in 2010 with Mujinae-dong, Gwarim-dong, Gwangmyeong-si, Gahak-dong, and Hakon-dong in Siheung-si. In the same year, it was designated as a special management area, and development was suspended.
Goyang Daegok and Gimpo Gochon are also areas that can be designated as residential districts due to improved housing convenience due to the recent development of the transportation network. New cities and residential districts are classified according to their size. New towns are used for large-scale developments with an area of over 3.3 million ㎡, and residential districts are generally used for developments of 3.3 million ㎡ or less. Housing districts are smaller than new cities and are called mini new towns.
The plan that the government is considering as the existing housing supply plan is ▲High density development of subway station area ▲Public-led development of semi-industrial areas ▲Supply of public private housing such as land rental and redemption conditions ▲Expand urban regeneration projects ▲House construction after road and railroad underground construction ▲Public Reconstruction and redevelopment expansion, etc. In addition, plans to further expand public leases and purchase leases using public buildings are being reviewed to alleviate unrest in the jeonse market.
◆ Signs of increasing housing supply, positive for resolving anxiety
The market evaluation is positive in that the government is more proactive in expanding the housing supply. In the meantime, there is a side that anxiety about house prices has been caused by the supply-demand imbalance. The supply scale remained at the average level, but demand increased due to low interest rates and an increase in one or two people. Anxiety about the decrease in supply was added to the regulation of the maintenance business, which intensified anxiety about house prices.
Real House Sales Evaluation Team Leader Kim Byung-ki said, “The recent real estate market unrest has been greatly influenced by the policy that suppresses supply and demand at the same time, so the market will take it as a positive signal for the special supply expansion plan.” In order to put it to rest, we will have to implement policies to curb demand and expand supply on a large scale.”
There are also observations that the effect will be great only when the supply of the private market is combined. There is a time difference before the government-led housing supply plan becomes a reality. Large-scale development plans such as residential districts take at least 4-5 years to designate districts, compensate for land, select business operators, start construction, and move in. In the short term, it is not enough to alleviate the unrest in the housing market. For this reason, some point out that there is a need to expand supply in the private market by easing regulations on maintenance projects and temporarily reducing capital gains tax.
“Even if you want to increase the supply in the short term, it will take a considerable amount of time to build a new public-led building, so it will be difficult to feel the effect right away.” “With the government’s supply expansion, the It will be effective only when the multi-homed sale is on the market.”