Pouch “Nearly 90% of the population needs to get a vaccine for coronavirus population immunity”

Input 2020.12.25 14:40 | Revision 2020.12.25 14:41

Anthony Pouch, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the United States, estimated that nearly 90% of the population must get a vaccine to obtain coronavirus population immunity. This is considerably higher than the 60-70% suggested by many experts. It is based on the judgment that the infectiousness of the virus is stronger than the initial prediction.

On the 24th (local time), Pouch manager told the New York Times (NYT), “We don’t know the exact number. I think the actual range is about 70-90%.”

Until the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak, he said it was 60-70%, but after mentioning it was 70-75% in last month’s TV interview, last week’s CNBC interview said it was 75-85%.

“It’s based on new scientific facts, and it’s based on my intuition that America is ready to hear what I really think,” said Pouch, revising the numbers up and acknowledging what he said.

The 60-70% he said earlier is an estimate from early corona data in China and Italy. This figure was derived under the assumption that the infection reproduction index per capita (the number of other confirmed cases infected by one confirmed case) is three.

However, the medical staff at the time did not know that there were asymptomatic infections, and that one person could become a super-propagator that infects dozens or hundreds of people.

There is also an analysis that the coronavirus continues to mutate and continues to become more contagious than the initial period. Viruses found in Wuhan, China, strains found in Italy, and the latest British strains are known to infect more people faster than the earlier virus.

Pouch explained that the result of a poll that the percentage of Americans who responded to getting the corona vaccine increased from 50% to 60%, and decided to reveal their honest thoughts about collective immunity.

Population immunity rates can be an important consideration in national corona vaccination plans, but many experts are not sure what exactly it is.

Usually, scientists find out the rate of population immunity to a highly contagious virus through experiments, because it is difficult to conduct experiments that require long periods of people to be locked in a closed place.