“Possibility of a slight tension between the Biden-Western governments… North Korea will provoke then”

“Possibility of a slight tension between the Biden-Western governments… North Korea will provoke then”

by

John Hamley Director of the US Institute for Strategic International Studies (CSIS).[Central DB] [중앙DB}

John Hamley Director of the US Institute for Strategic International Studies (CSIS).[Central DB] [중앙DB}

“There will be some tension between the Biden and Moon Jae-in administrations over how they will approach North Korea. In the meantime, North Korea Chairman Kim Jong-un is most likely to make a big mistake of provoking.”

Interview with John Hamley, Director of CSIS
“North Korea has no sincerity…I don’t think the US needs to start first”
“Washington has no optimism in North Korea… the Korean government is too optimistic”
“I hope Koreans enjoy achievement without being buried in failure”

John Hamley, head of the Strategic and International Studies Institute (CSIS), a representative diplomatic and security think tank in Washington, USA, was not optimistic about the relationship between North Korea and the United States this year in an interview with JoongAng Ilbo on the 22nd (local time). “If North Korea fires missiles and conducts nuclear tests as usual, it will seriously retreat the possibility of any kind of involvement or negotiation,” he said. Hamley, who served as Deputy Minister of Defense, is a Republican member, but he is a trusted expert in both camps so that he was mentioned as a candidate for defense minister in the first and second period of the Barack Obama administration. The following are questions and answers.

How do you anticipate Biden’s Foreign Affairs and Security Team’s strategy on the Korean Peninsula?
In my feeling, Biden’s team seems to think that Kim Jong-un hasn’t made a sincere effort to move on to the next step. I don’t think they should start the (North Korean nuclear negotiations) process because I don’t think North Korea has made any new or practical proposals in the past two years. The Moon Jae-in administration wants to maintain its involvement policy, but in my opinion, the Biden administration has doubts about North Korea’s authenticity.
Will the different perspectives between Korea and the United States grow into conflict?
There will be some tension between the Biden and Moon Jae-in administrations over how to approach North Korea. In the meantime, if North Korea fires missiles and conducts nuclear tests as usual, it will seriously retreat the possibility of any kind of involvement or negotiation. Kim Jong-un is most likely to make the big mistake of provocation. People here are expecting it, so no one will be surprised. In that case, it is clear that there will be no actual discussion between the United States and North Korea.

Could North Korea be different this time?
I don’t think so. Looking at Kim Jong-un’s speeches or statements at the end of last year and early this year, there is no evidence that the thinking has changed flexibly. No one thinks he’s been honest with Trump. The only one I believed was Donald Trump. No one in the Democratic leadership considers any mention (in the letter) to be real.

The possibility that the Biden administration will succeed Trump’s North Korea policy?
The actions and words of the Biden administration will be very neutral. They are open to dialogue with North Korea, but they must show that North Korea is serious and sincere. Kim Jong-un thinks that Biden’s team will have to do something threatening, but that’s very wrong. Biden’s team is threatened and will not go into conversation. It is a typical mistake that North Korea always makes.

If North Korea actually provokes, then what are the possible scenarios?
Even if a long-range missile is fired, if the provocation intensity is not high in such a way that it is not aimed at somewhere, a tremendous negative reaction is not expected. However, if you conduct a nuclear test or launch a long-range missile and shoot it close to US military bases such as Guam or Japan, a very negative reaction will come out. It is most likely that the UN will add sanctions.

Are you going back to the situation of’strategic patience’ during the Obama administration?
The Biden administration seems to have a basic idea that North Korea doesn’t have many options. There is no real basis for a real conversation to begin without seriously putting on the table what the United States is interested in, such as the nuclear issue. The basic idea is that if North Korea doesn’t offer anything, it shouldn’t give anything.

After four years, North Korea’s nuclear power will grow even further, and the Biden administration may face criticism as it did during the Obama administration.
I understand. Think about your options. Biden’s administration unilaterally attacks North Korea and forces Kim Jong-un to withdraw? I won’t. So, the Biden administration recognizes North Korea as a nuclear power and gives it what it wants? That won’t happen either. The situation now moves within fairly limited policy options. Biden is expected to say that he will not negotiate with North Korea until it shows that it is serious about changing the military balance in the region. North Korea must show its will.

Will North Korea do that?
I think North Korea will feel that hugging nuclear weapons is the only way to make them survive. So I don’t think they’re going to give up nuclear. Seoul and Washington have different views of North Korea. There is little optimism about North Korea here. The Korean government is too optimistic.

It is expected that Korea-US defense cost negotiations will be concluded at the current level.
The Trump administration has claimed a stupid $5 billion, and the Biden administration thinks defense negotiations will be a mechanical approach, excluding political involvement. It won’t be a top priority for the Biden government.

There is a prospect that the Biden administration will pay attention to strengthening relations between Korea, the US and Japan.
We will try to rebuild relations so that the three countries can work together. But it’s going to be modest, and I don’t think it will give a strong message to Prime Minister Suga and President Moon on what to do. I think the basic position of the Biden team is that there should be a relationship between Korea and Japan in which they can cooperate.

In the Trump administration, Korea was forced to choose between the United States and China.
I don’t think I’m going to take a rigid approach that urges me to choose which one to take. Biden’s team will know that Asian countries cannot have a hostile relationship with China. It seems that the United States needs a strategy to prevent it from appearing anti-China when pursuing anything. There is also a feeling that China cannot be changed by something like a belligerent statement.

The Moon Jae-in government enforced the anti-North Korea warfare ban.
I was surprised that North Korea barely felt threatened by the balloon. This shows the paranoia and anxiety of the North Korean regime. In my personal opinion, it is unlikely that the US Congress will deal with this issue. This is because it is uncommon to hold hearings on domestic political issues in other countries.

I received’Gwanghwajang’, which is the highest grade among’the diplomatic medals’ given to foreigners from the Korean government.
In addition to Korea, he received medals in Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Finland, Sweden, and Japan, but Korea is really special. My grandson is Korean. I am deeply interested in my personal relationship, and I am also worried about Korea’s safety and future. The division of North and South Korea is terrible in that it has made Koreans not aware of how great they are. Koreans don’t seem to know for themselves that they have strength, nationality, and tremendous creative energy. I hope you don’t get too caught up in failure and acknowledge your achievements.

◇John Hamley (70) = He has been leading the Strategic and International Studies Institute (CSIS), a global diplomatic and security think tank in the United States, for 21 years. During the Clinton administration, he served as an auditor (deputy minister) and deputy secretary of the Department of Defense. Be familiar with the situation in Washington.


Source