Senior Reporter Seong Han-yong’s Politics After the End 361
April 7th re-election from Alpha to Omega
Candidate registration March 17~18…Pre-election April 2~3
Regional Heads 2, Basic Heads 2, Regional Clinics 7, Basic Clinics 8
If cause occurs by February 28th, election area may increase
Kim Jong-in, Chairman of the People’s Power Emergency Response Committee, and Ho-young Joo, the representative of the hospital, attend the Emergency Response Committee meeting held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on the morning of January 21st. Joint coverage photo
Politics is the authoritative distribution of social values. It cannot be separated from our lives. It is wrong to think that politics is not important because of Corona 19 and the economic crisis. Corona 19 is politics, and economy is politics. Politics and elections are the ones to consider and choose who and how to overcome Corona 19 and the economic crisis. Now the season of politics is back. On April 7th, there is a re-and by-election including the Mayor of Seoul and the Mayor of Busan. On the loser of the elections, there will be a shock and a post-storm like a large bomb. Korea is a presidential system. After April 7th, Jungkook will rapidly run toward the 20th presidential election on March 9, 2022. On July 12th, registration for candidates for the presidential election begins. In early September, the Democratic Party’s presidential election is expected to take place, and in early November, the people’s power of the presidential election is expected to be held. Even after that, ahead of the victory of Geon Gon, the dizzying jeongguk of Ihabjipsan (離合集散) and Hapjongyeonho (合從連衡) will unfold. The 20th president, who was elected in the presidential election on March 9, 2022, will take office on May 10 after going through the process of taking over the government. However, on June 1, less than a month after the new president took office, the 8th national simultaneous local election must be held. Including the mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan, elected for the by-election on April 7th, the heads of regional and basic organizations nationwide, regional and basic lawmakers, and the nationwide superintendent of education must all be re-elected. So, from now to the first half of next year, election and politics news will fall like a waterfall. The political schedule was driven by the sudden vacancy of the mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan, and the election cycle was disrupted as former President Park Geun-hye did not finish his term. But more fundamentally, it is also because of the 5-year single-term presidential system. The general election for members of the National Assembly for a term of four years, and for local government elected officials for a term of four years, the national election schedules are stabilizing at alternate times every two years. If one day amends the constitution and changes the power structure, it would be a good idea to keep the presidential term in line with the schedule of the National Assembly and local elections.
Today, we will take a closer look at the April 7 re-election and by-election on April 7, and forecast the election results. Re-election is an election held due to the invalidity of elected officials. By-election is an election held for the vacancy of elected officials. Since re-election and by-election are held together, they are usually called re-election. The re-election dates are stipulated in Article 35 of the Public Official Election Act (election days such as by-elections).
By-election and re-election of members of the National Assembly and local council members, and elections for additional members of local councils are conducted once a year, and by-election and re-election by the heads of local governments are conducted twice a year, and shall be conducted according to the following items: By-election and re-election for members of the National Assembly and local council members, and elections for additional members of local councils are held on the first Wednesday of April. However, elections for which the reasons for conduct after March 1 are confirmed are held on the first Wednesday of April of the following year. Among the by-elections and re-elections of the heads of local governments, the elections for which the reasons for conduct are confirmed from September 1 to the end of February of the previous year are held on the first Wednesday of April. Among the by-elections and re-elections of the heads of local governments, the elections for which the reasons for conduct are confirmed from March 1 to August 31 are held on the first Wednesday of October.
Originally, local government heads were also supposed to be re-elected once a year and on the first Wednesday of April, but it was changed to twice a year as the Public Officials Election Act was revised on December 29 last year. Busan Mayor Oh Geo-don was vacated in April of last year, and Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon was vacated in July of last year, but the by-election on April 7th is according to the pre-revised election law. On April 7, the rehabilitation area has not been finalized. This is because, by February 28th, areas where there are reasons for rehabilitation or rehabilitation must be added. The constituencies and reasons for re-election as of January 20 are as follows.
Head of a regional group (2) Park Won-soon, the mayor of Seoul, died of Park Won-soon, the Mayor of Busan, and Kim Jin-gyu, the head of the Ulsan Nam-gu office, and Kim Jin-gyu, the head of the Ulsan Nam-gu office. Election invalidity Gyeonggi Guri-si co-Democratic party Hyeong-yeol Seo died Independent Park Jae-wan, Chungbuk Boeun-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do Democratic party Kim Ki-tae died Jeonnam Goheung-gun Democratic Party Park Geum-rae died Gyeongnam Goseong-gun and Democratic Party Lee Ok-cheol Elected Democratic Party Elected Democratic Party, Gyeongnam Hamyang-gun, Gyeongnam Hamyang-gun People’s Strength Jae-gu Im, Gyeongsangnam-do (8) Youngdeungpo-gu, Seoul Heo Hong-seok lost his right to election Songpa-gu, Seoul Kim Jang-hwan died, Ulsan Ulju-gun, along with Democratic party Park Jeong-ok, died Gyeonggi Paju-gun People’s party, Ahn So-hee, lost his right to be elected.
Candidate registration for 4·7 re-election is held for two days on March 18th and 19th. The election poster is posted by March 26th. Pre-voting is on April 2nd and 3rd from 6am to 6pm. Voting on the day of re-election is from 6 am to 8 pm. After voting, we start counting as soon as possible. In places with a small number of electors, you need to complete the counting of votes, but in places with a large number of electors, such as the mayor of Seoul or Busan, you will be able to know the results of the election at the beginning of the count. No, maybe the Mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan will know the results before Election Day. This is because, in large-scale elections, such as the presidential election or the elections for regional heads, the polls just before Election Day closely match the election results. The Mayor of Seoul and the Mayor of Busan received applications for preliminary candidate registration on December 8 last year. If you register as a preliminary candidate, you can conduct basic campaigns within a limited range. Not all candidates to run are registered as preliminary candidates. You can check the list of preliminary candidates by entering the website of the Central Election Commission.
People’s Power: Kang Seong-Hyeon Kim Seon-dong, Bae Young-gyu Na Gyeong-won Justice Party: Kwon Soo-jeong Basic Income Party: Shin Ji-hye National Revolutionary Party: Huh Gyeong-Sung Minsaeng Party: Jeong Dong-hee Progressive Party: Song Myung-sook Independent: Hwang Cheol-un Co-Democratic Party: Kim Young-chun People’s Power: Park Min-sik Oh Seung-cheol Yoo Jae-joong Lee Jin-bok Jeon Sung-ha Park Kim Gwi-soon Kim Park Seong-hoon, Lee Gyeong-man Progressive Party: Roh Jung-hyun Independent: Gyeong-jae
How is it? Some peculiar characters stand out, right? The National Revolutionary Party CEO Huh Gyeong-yeong, who was registered as a preliminary candidate for the mayor of Seoul, became a hot topic when he made a pledge to pay 200,000 won per month to unmarried people. An independent candidate who is registered as a preliminary candidate for the mayor of Busan is quite famous as a conservative YouTuber. However, it is true that the candidates of the large two parties are advantageous in the election of the mayor of Seoul and the Busan mayor. In addition, the Democratic Party and the People’s Power are fiercely competing to be nominated by the Mayor of Seoul and the Mayor of Busan. In addition, the Democratic Party conspires for candidates for heads of regional and basic organizations from January 27 to 29. Seoul Mayor Park Young-seon, former Minister of Small and Medium Venture Businesses and Member Woo Sang-ho, have announced their intention to run, but there may be other applicants. The mayor of Busan may also have other challengers other than former Congressman Kim Young-chun, Busan City Councilman Park In-young, and Busan Mayor Byeon Seong-wan.
In addition, the Democratic Party is scheduled to confirm the candidates for the contest on February 8 after a public interview with rights party members on February 2. The election campaign begins on February 9th, and the final candidate is decided by voting from February 25th to 28th. The contest method is ‘50% of votes for rights party members and 50% of general public opinion polls’. There are also additional points for female candidates. Female candidates receive an additional 25%, but female candidates who are former and current lawmakers, local government heads, or regional chairpersons receive 10%. Former Minister Park Young-sun will receive an additional 10%. For the mayor of Seoul, it is said that former Minister Park Young-seon, who has advanced in recognition and competitiveness in the main race, has an advantage in the contest. However, Rep. Sang-ho Woo has a solid organization within the party. The political capacity that led to the impeachment prosecution of President Park Geun-hye as the House Representative in December 2016 cannot be ignored. The Busan mayor is expected to be in a difficult pursuit of candidate Park In-young and Byun Seong-wan, with former lawmaker Kim Young-chun ahead. The fervor in the party’s race is much hotter than the Democratic Party. As a result of the nomination application that ended on January 21st, 14 Mayors of Seoul and 9 mayors of Busan applied.
Seoul Mayor Nomination Applicant Seong-Hyeon Kang Preliminary Candidate of Mayor Kim Geun-sik Power of the People Pa-Byeong Song Chairman of the Party Committee Seon-dong Kim Seon-dong Kim Former Secretary General Jeong-ki Kim Former Consul General of Shanghai for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Gyeong-won Na Former Representative of the Free Korea Party (Female) Park Chun-Hee Former Seoul Athletics Association Chairman Oh Se-hun Former Seoul Mayor Oh Won-Hwan Former Member of the Future Integration Party Seung-Hyun Lee, Honorary Chairman of the Korea Foreign Business Association Jong-gu Lee Former Member of the Korea Foreign Business Association Daewon Cho Former Freedom Korea Party Chairman of the Goyang-jeong Party Cooperative Chairman Cho Eun-hee Cho (female) Dae-Sung Han 2014 Global phD Fellowship
Busan Mayor Nomination Applicant Kwisoon Kim Emeritus Professor at Busan Foreign University (Female) Minsik Park Former Member of the Future Integration Party Seong-Hoon Park Former Vice Mayor of Busan City Hyung-Jun Park Professor, Graduate School of International Studies at Dong-A University Seung-cheol Oh Seung-cheol Lee, Sponsoring Chairman of Busan Welfare 21 General Volunteer Society Kyung-Man Lee Former Officer Senior Vice President (Female) Jin-bok Lee Former Member of the Future Integration Party Seongha Jeon, CEO of LFC Energy
The power of the people divides the contest into a preliminary contest and a main contest. First, candidates for the preliminary contest on the 26th are confirmed through verification by the Citizen Verification Special Committee and in-depth interviews by the Nomination Management Committee (January 24~25). The preliminary contest is held on February 3-4. Four finalists will be elected by 20% of the vote of the responsible party and 80% of the general public opinion poll, and will be announced on February 5. In the main contest, one-on-one and joint discussions are held. For two days from March 2 to 3, candidates will be selected based on a 100% general public opinion poll, and the final announcement will be made on March 4. Women, newcomers, youth, and people with severe disabilities have 20% bonus points in the preliminary contest and 10% in the main contest.
The Power of the People Competition is said that the former mayor of Seoul, Oh Se-hoon and Na Gyeong-won, who are highly recognizable in the case of the mayor of Seoul, form the Yanggang district. However, one-on-one discussion is the variable. There is a high possibility that unexpected candidates such as Seocho-gu mayor Cho Eun-hee, who served as the mayor of Seoul’s government affairs, will appear as dark horses. The mayor of Busan is preceded by former lawmaker Park Hyeong-jun, who has a high degree of recognition and a brilliant specification, but there is a view that the pursuit of former lawmaker Lee Eon-ju and former economic vice mayor Park Seong-hoon will not be easy.
Chul-Soo Ahn-People’s Power Candidate Unification Inevitable Public opinion is high. “The support has run out” “Can be reversed by candidate variables” Ya “Expect great difficulties in the process of unification” “Don’t be vigilant” Presidential performance evaluation-Party support should look
When candidates for the Mayor of Seoul and Busan Mayor are confirmed by the Democratic Party and the People’s Power by early March, the second stage of the Seoul Mayor’s election is awaiting the’unification of candidates’ phase. Regardless of who will be the candidate for the people’s strength, it is expected that the second round of competition will be held with Ahn Chul-soo, the representative of the National Assembly. Some people seem to believe that the relationship between the emergency response committee chairman Kim Jong-in and CEO Ahn Chul-soo is so bad that it is impossible to single out candidates and that the mayor of Seoul may be elected in a three-way structure. I don’t think so. The pressure of the so-called conservative voters and the media will make it impossible for the people’s strength and Ahn Chul-soo to ignore the unification of the candidate. The power of the people was defeated in the 2016 general election, followed by the 2017 presidential election, the 2018 local election, and the 2020 general election. Rather than surrendering the mayor of Seoul to the Democratic Party due to the failure to unify the candidate, we will give up a single candidate for the mayor of Seoul to Representative Ahn Chul-soo and aim to win the presidential election on March 9, 2022. This time, let’s look at the sales of the 4·7 re-main line. With more than two months left in the election, it is difficult to predict a win or loss. However, it seems that the ruling party is at a disadvantage and the opposition party is favorable. There are only a few ruling party contenders, and the opposition contenders can easily be seen by looking at a lot more. The bottom line sentiment of voters should be seen as best known by politicians in elections. I will briefly reconstruct what I have recently heard from the Democratic Party and the main officials of the People’s Power in question and answer format.
-Election prospects? =It is true that it is not easy. -In the polls, the support of the Democratic Party is higher and lower than the people’s strength. = Looks moderate. The ruling party and the opposition party will be similar. -Will the ruling party’s approval rating continue to drop? =It seems that now is the bottom. It is expected that the vaccination will start in February and will get better if the corona is relieved. -Who will win the contest? Sang-ho Woo and Young-sun Park? =I think Park Young-seon will be advantageous. Park Young-seon leads in the virtual confrontation of public opinion polls. Party members and supporters will also see competition in the finals. Woo Sang-ho’s competence and character are fine, but it’s a pity. -Will the power of the people and CEO Ahn Chul-soo unify the candidate for mayor of Seoul? = I think it will. I lose if I don’t, but why not. -Will the ruling party lose if the opposition candidates are unified? =The composition is definitely against us. However, there are candidate variables. Our candidate will lead the broadcast debate. -Are you confident to win? =It is an important election. You have to do your best. You don’t know who will win the election. The one who maintains a sense of urgency to the end wins. It was the same during the last general election.
-Oh Se-hoon, Na Gyeong-won Who will win? = I’ve asked 10 ordinary office workers for the mayor of Seoul, but Chul-soo Ahn is the most followed by Se-hoon Oh. There was no Na Kyung-won. Still, Na Kyung-won has strong support from the conservative side. It will depend on how you design the competition rules. -Do you unify the candidate with CEO Ahn Cheol-soo? =It must be done, but it will not be easy. CEO Ahn Chul-soo will somehow insist on making the rules in his favor. worried. -Will you win if you unify your candidates? =I can’t guarantee. The current passport is by no means an easy match. Be vigilant. -Who are the opposition candidates for the presidential election? = It is not Yoon Seok-yeol and not Hong Jun-pyo. -Then who? =There are other runners such as Yoo Seung-min, but the support is too low. -What about Ahn Cheol-soo? =If you can’t run for the mayor of Seoul, you will be elected. Even if I run and fall, I will be in the presidential election. Even if the mayor of Seoul is elected, the presidential election will come out. -I was elected. How do I get out? =If there are no other strong candidates in the opposition, they will try to come out.
As mentioned earlier, abnormalities seldom occur in elections with a large number of electors, such as the mayor of Seoul and the mayor of Busan. This is because if you look closely at the polls flow, you can read the trend to some extent. The public sentiment for the 4·7 re-election has not yet been formed. It starts now. In a poll published by Gallup Korea on January 22, President Moon Jae-in received 37% of the positive evaluations and 54% of the negatives. There is no big change for this year. Party support was 33% for the Democratic Party and 23% for the people’s strength. Again, there is no big change. (Refer to the website of the Central Election Polls Review Committee)
If the evaluation of the performance of the presidential duties and the political party support start to move in either direction, it would be good to interpret the 4·7 re-election public sentiment as moving. Now what will happen? Senior Reporter Seong Han-yong [email protected]