After the politics of Senior Reporter Sung Han-yong 358
2021 Bosun-Gyeongsun-President Jeongkook Preview
April 7th Seoul Mayor by-election 2011 resembles
The ruling party’s presidential candidate, the September contest … Lee Nak-yeon-Lee Jae-myeong’Yanggang’
The People’s Power Competition is also available in November…
Announcement of the turbulent long run until the next March 9th presidential election
material photo” alt=”2021 is a dynamic politics year in which each party’s presidential candidate is decided. From left, Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong, Prosecutor General Yoon Suk-yeol, and Lee Nak-yeon, together with Democratic Party representatives. 2021 is a dynamic politics year in which each party’s presidential candidate is decided. From left, Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong, Prosecutor General Yoon Suk-yeol, and Lee Nak-yeon, together with Democratic Party representatives. <한겨레> Material photo
I wish you a happy new year. What will happen in politics this year? Let’s focus on schedule and people. In politics it can be said that schedules and people are almost everything. Let me explain with an example. Politics is the art of’timing’. Even if you say the same thing, the context changes depending on when you say it. On January 1, Lee Nak-yeon, representative of the Democratic Party, came out with an amnesty for former Presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. If CEO Nak-yeon Lee had spoken such a story at the end of last year, he would have been treated as a’strange politician’. However, it seems to have become quite controversial and topical as President Moon Jae-in’s term of office was actually brought out at the beginning of the last year and the sentence for re-appealing by the former Supreme Court of President Park Geun-hye was brought out. The amnesty is likely to spark more controversy after former President Park Geun-hye was sentenced to reappeal by the Supreme Court on January 14th. Politics is what people do. Even the same words have a different meaning depending on who speaks them. When the pardons of former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye were requested by former lawmakers Yoo Seung-min and Ha Tae-kyung, there was no wave. The same was the case when former CEO Sohn Hak-gyu said. However, the amnesty theory drawn up by Lee Nak-yeon, the first Prime Minister of the Moon Jae-in administration and the influential Democratic Party presidential candidate, has no choice but to be taken in a completely different political meaning and weight. Because amnesty is the authority of the President.
Let’s get to the point. In the first half of 2021, there will be an by-election of the Mayor of Seoul and Busan Mayor on April 7. In the second half of the year, the Democratic Party’s Presidential Candidate Contest will be held in September and the People’s Power of the People’s Republic of Korea will be held in November. Therefore, it can be expected that from now to April 7th, the’Boseon Jungkook’, then September and November will be the’Primary Jungkook’, and then the’President Jungkook’. Boseon Jungkook will revolve around the mayor of Seoul. This is because the mayor of Seoul has a much heavier political weight than the mayor of Busan. The election of the mayor of Seoul this time resembles the by-election of the mayor of Seoul in 2011 in many ways, only because the opposition parties have changed. First, it is a by-election due to the ruling party’s fault. Second, the political situation surrounding the election of opposition candidates is very complex. Third, there is a presidential election a year after the by-election of the mayor of Seoul. On August 24, 2011, when the voter turnout did not reach 33.3% in the referendum for free meals in Seoul, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon resigned on August 26. And on October 26th that year, the by-election schedule for the mayor of Seoul was confirmed. The popularity soared as Ahn Cheol-soo, president of Seoul National University’s Graduate School of Convergence Science and Technology, announced his intention to run for mayor of Seoul. There were also poll results with 50% approval ratings. However, on September 6th, Director Ahn Chul-soo gave up his run and declared his support for Park Won-soon after meeting with Park Won-soon, the executive director of Hope Factory. Director Park Won-soon, who carried the wind on his back, started to lead the way in the polls. In the Democratic Party, four members of the Democratic Party, Cheon Jeong-bae, Chairman of the Policy Committee Park Young-seon, Rep. Choo Mi-ae, and former Rep. Shin Gye-ryun took the challenge. In the background of the Chairman of the Policy Committee Park Young-sun, there were active requests from 86 group politicians, including CEO Sohn Hak-gyu, Woo Sang-ho and Lee In-young. The day before the candidate registration was in a Chinese restaurant called Bongmyeongseong, Yeouido, the talk of’Bongmyeongseong’s crymyeon’, said that Chairman Park Young-seon cried while eating crying noodles with Rep. Lee In-young. The Democratic Party mayoral candidate race was held on September 25th, and Park Young-sun, the Policy Committee Chairman, was elected as the Seoul Mayor. Still, it was difficult to beat the ruling party candidate if Lawyer Park Won-soon and Rep. Park Young-sun ran together. The opposition pushed for a single candidate. Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun, Democratic Labor Party candidate Choi Gyu-yeop, and independent candidate Park Won-soon held the unified race. On October 3rd, Candidate Won-soon Park was elected as a single candidate for the opposition. On September 26th, the GNP’s highest committee member Na Kyung-won was confirmed as a candidate. As a result of the by-election of the Mayor of Seoul on October 26, the votes were 53.4% for Park Won-soon and 46.2% for Na Kyung-won. Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon won the 2014 local election and the 2018 local election, becoming the third mayor of Seoul. Now, what will happen this time? First of all, it seems that the odds of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election are high in terms of the people’s power. You can see that a lot of people are actively taking on the challenge. The people who have indicated their intention to run so far are Kim Geun-sik, Kim Seon-dong, Park Chun-hee, Oh Shin-hwan, Lee Jong-gu, Lee Hye-hoon, and Cho Eun-hee (in alphabetical order). Here, I am interested in whether or not both Na Kyung-won and Oh Se-hoon are running. Most of them are well-known people, so I will only introduce the most basic age, education, and major careers.
Kim Geun-sik (56) Jeonbuk College of Education, Seoul National University Political Science Department, Kyungnam University Professor, Seoul Song Pa-Byeong Chairman of the Party Committee Seon-dong Kim (58) Ancient College of Education, Department of Political Surgery, 18th and 20th National Assembly member, National Power Secretary-General Park Chun-hee (67) Kyungnam Girls’ High School, Pusan National University, Songpa-gu Mayor Shin Won-hwan (50) Danggok High School, Han Ye-Jong, Seoul National University Congressman Lee Jong-gu (71) Gyeonggi High School, Seoul National University Department of Economics, Ministry of Finance and Economy, Finance Policy Bureau Director Lee Hye-Hoon (57) Masan Jeil Girls’ High School, Seoul National University Economics Department, 17 18 20th National Assembly member Cho Eun-hee (60) Gyeongbuk Girls’ High School, Ewha University English Department, Blue House Secretary, Seoul Vice Mayor of Government Affairs, Seocho-gu Office Director Na Gyeong-won (58) Seoul Girls’ High School, Seoul National University Law Department, Judge, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th National Assembly Member, Supreme Commissioner, Representative Sehun Oh (60) Daeil High School, Ancient Law Department, Lawyer, 16th National Assembly Member, Supreme Council Member, Mayor of Seoul
Here, as the National Assembly representative Ahn Chul-soo declared a run for the run, the board was shaken greatly. CEO Ahn Chul-soo is also ranked first in the Seoul Mayor candidate’s support in a recent poll. In addition, former lawmaker Geum Tae-seop, who left the Democratic Party, also announced his intention to run for mayor of Seoul.
Ahn Chul-soo (59) Busan High School, Seoul National University Department of Medicine, Ahn Chul-Soo Research Institute, 19th and 20th National Assembly member, New Political Democracy Coalition, National Assembly Representative, 2017 presidential election, 2018 Seoul Mayor Keum Tae-seop (54) Yeouido High School, Seoul National University Law School, Prosecutor, lawyer, 20th lawmaker
How is it? Isn’t it really powerful if it’s this kind of candidate? Moreover, the results of public opinion polls stating that the opposition party will win in the Seoul Mayor’s by-election continue to pour out. Still, the so-called conservatives seem to have a lot of worries about losing the election. On January 1, in a column in the Chi newspaper, he gave a scholarship to the Seoul Mayor’s by-election.
“The power of the people should not tell Ahn Cheol-soo and Geum Tae-seop to come inside. Rather, it is better not to come in a hundred times. You should choose to set up a competition stage outside the party. Invitations should be returned to all’non-written candidates’ who agree to the regime change. Regardless of the qualifications, inclinations, and political capabilities of each individual, such as Ahn Cheol-soo, Oh Se-hoon, Na Gyeong-won, Cho Eun-hee, Geum Tae-seop, Kim Dong-yeon, and Hong Jeong-wook, they must stand on one stage. It is a technical question which contest method to choose. If you create a’citizen candidate’ rather than a candidate for the strength of the people with a high degree of unfavorability, you will be closer to victory. It is also possible to show the public how candidates are crowded with opposition parties that seem to run out of candidate assets. As the figures gather and the plate grows, the right-wing area expands. The elected candidate may be a bridgehead for the emergence of new political forces in the opposition. I think the younger generation who are disappointed by the current regime, the moderate tendency and voters who refuse to vote will find hope here.”
The so-called conservative seems to be holding the election of the Mayor of Seoul in the way of unifying candidates for the Democratic Party, Democratic Labor Party, and Civil Society in 2011. Will it work? Whether or not Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly Party, is enlisted in the power of the people must be decided first. That way, whether it’s an internal party contest or an integrated contest, the rules for the contest can be set. CEO Ahn Cheol-soo does not seem to have much intention of joining the power of the people. Various opinions are emanating from the power of the people. Will the push and pull continue for quite some time in the future? It seems that traffic control will only take place after the Lunar New Year holiday on February 12th.
Chul-soo Ahn, President of the National Assembly Party and Young-sun Park, Minister of Small and Medium Venture Business. Graphics Sunmi Park
In addition, the Democratic Party situation is not very complicated. Rep. Sang-ho Woo officially announced his intention to run, and Park Young-sun, Minister of SMEs and Startups, and Rep. Park Ju-min are considering whether to run. Minister Park Young-seon is ahead of the position, but Rep. Woo Sang-ho is on the strong side. The candidates will look at the opposition’s movements and make a final decision. Therefore, it seems likely that the contest will be held after the Lunar New Year holidays. Rep. Kim Jin-ae of the Open Democratic Party also declared to run for mayor of Seoul, but it is not known whether the candidate will actually be registered. The Public Office Election Act requires that members of the National Assembly resign 30 days before the election day if they want to run for the mayor/do governor election. Will Congressman Jin-ae Kim abandon his position as a member of the National Assembly and register as a candidate for mayor of Seoul? How do you expect?
Park Young-sun (61) Metropolitan Girls’ High School, Kyung Hee University’s Department of Geography, Cultural Broadcasting Reporter, 17, 18, 19, 20th National Assembly member, Park Ju-min (48), Daewon Foreign Language High School, Seoul National University Law Department, Lawyer, 20th and 21st National Assembly Member Sangho Woo (59) Yongmungo, Yonsei University Korean Literature Department, 17th, 19th, 20th, 21st National Assembly member, in-house representative
Kim Jin-ae (68) Ewha Girls’ High School, Department of Architecture, Seoul National University, 18th and 21st National Assembly member
Democratic Party lawmaker Woo Sang-ho held a press conference at the National Assembly Communication Hall on the morning of December 13, 2020, declaring a run for the Seoul Mayor by-election. Joint coverage photo
After the by-election on April 7th, there will be a storm at the list price right away. In particular, the results of the mayor of Seoul are important. If the ruling party loses, President Moon Jae-in is at risk of falling into a lame duck (power leak). If the opposition party loses, the people’s strength is difficult to avoid changes in the level of dissolution. Therefore, those who look at politics superficially say that the one who wins the 4·7 mayoral by-election will easily win the presidential election on March 9, 2022. But that’s not the case. 11 months is a very long time in Korean politics. At that time, the market can be overturned two or three times. The Democratic Party won the 2011 October 26 Seoul Mayor’s by-election, but six months later, it was defeated in the 2012 April 11 19th National Assembly election. After 14 months, he was also defeated in the 12-19 presidential election. This is because the Jin Grand National Party succeeded in raising the party back to the center of the Emergency Response Committee Chairman Park Geun-hye in the 2011 October 26 Mayor’s election. What will happen this time? I don’t know. The results of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election on April 7 will have a strong impact on the immediate political party’s presidential election. In addition, the Democratic Party has a constitution that elects candidates 180 days before election day and 120 days before election day. In addition, the Democratic Party is in early September and the people’s strength is in early November. The 2017 presidential election was a’short-track’ presidential election that required the next president to be elected within 60 days after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye, but this time is completely different. Let me introduce the rules for the election of the two political parties. You don’t have to read it all, just take a quick look.
In addition, Article 88 of the Democratic Party Constitution (Recommendation by Presidential Candidate) ① The election of presidential candidates is based on the national contest or the national participation contest. ② The election of candidates for president must be made 180 days before the presidential election day. However, if there are significant reasons, it may be otherwise determined by the resolution of the Party Affairs Committee. ③ Necessary matters such as the method of the primary election, registration of candidates for president, election campaigns, and voting and counting shall be determined by the Party Regulations.
In addition, the Democratic Party’s Special Party Regulations-Regulations on Election of Candidates for the 20th Presidential Election Article 19 (Method of conducting the contest) ① The contest shall be conducted as a national contest, and it is conducted by region or by metropolitan city and province. ② Contest voting is conducted by circuit (on-site) voting, ARS voting, and online voting, but the result of each voting is calculated by adding up to one vote per person. ③ Specific matters related to the contest, such as the schedule of the contest, shall be determined by the resolution of the Election Commission. Article 23 (Composition of Elections) The electoral corps consists of the national delegates, the rights party members, the national and general party members, and the overseas nationals, and is composed according to the following subparagraphs: 1. National delegates shall be composed of delegates pursuant to Article 15 (2) of the Party Constitution. However, in accordance with Article 15, Paragraph 2, No. 21 of the Party Constitution, Korean delegates overseas are included in the Korean National Election Committee. 2. The electoral group of rights party members shall be composed of rights party members who are qualified pursuant to Article 5 (Election Rights) of Party Regulations No. 2 (Party Member and Party Expense Regulations) among the rights party members pursuant to Article 5, Paragraph 1 of the Party Constitution. 3. The national and general party member electoral corps shall be composed of persons who have applied for participation in the primary electoral corps who have gone through the procedure for determining the electoral list. 4. The Overseas National Election Commission shall be composed of members of the Korean National Delegates abroad pursuant to Article 15 (2) 21 of the Party Constitution, the rights party residing abroad, and those who have applied for participation in the contest as overseas nationals who have gone through the procedure for determining the electoral list. . Article 24 (Application by the electoral group) ① Members of the national delegates and rights party shall be included in the electoral group without a separate application procedure. However, in the case of Korean delegates residing abroad and rights party residing abroad, they must be included in the Overseas National Election Committee without a separate application procedure, but must submit documents determined by the Election Commission. ② Anyone who wishes to become an elector of the National and General Party member electoral corps must apply online or by phone at the reception desk determined by the Election Commission. ③ Anyone who wishes to become an electoral group of the Overseas National Election Board must be accepted in accordance with the method determined by the Election Commission, but must certify the identity of the person through an official certificate or mobile phone.
The Power of the People Party Constitution Chapter 5 Election of Presidential Candidates Article 69 (Election of Candidates) ① Presidential candidates shall be elected by combining the results of the Presidential Electoral Group’s vote and public opinion polls for the election of candidates. ② The president-elect shall be deemed the most voted voter as a result of the final count calculated by reflecting the results of the valid votes of the Presidential Electoral Corps and 50% of the polls. However, if there is only one registered candidate, or if the candidate becomes one due to resignation, etc. during the election period, the candidate shall not be voted for the candidate by the decision of the Presidential Candidate Election Management Committee, and the candidate shall be elected to the president at the convention. Candidates can be nominated. ③ Presidential electoral votes are conducted nationwide at the same time, and public opinion polls are conducted according to the schedule and method set by the Election Commission. ④ If there are more than two voters according to the main text of Paragraph 2, the majority voter among the most voted voters will be appointed as a candidate through a final ballot at a convention in which a majority of the enlisted delegates are present. ⑤ In the case of Paragraph 4, if there are two or more voters, a re-voting is conducted and the majority voter is nominated as a candidate. ⑥ Other necessary matters concerning the election of candidates for president shall be determined by the Party Regulations. Article 70 (President Electoral Group Composition, etc.) ① The presidential electoral team for the election of presidential candidates shall be at least 0.5% of the number of voters and shall consist of the following items. 1. National Assembly delegate electors 2. Party member electors who are not delegates to the National Assembly 2. Other necessary matters concerning the Presidential Electoral Group shall be determined by the Party Regulations. Article 71 (Qualifications of Candidate) ① Anyone who can be elected as a candidate for president must have the right to be elected by the President and hold a party as of the date of registration of the candidate. ② Anyone who intends to run for the presidential candidacy must resign from all elected officials except for standing advisors one year and six months before the presidential election. However, exceptions are made to the emergency response committee chairman and members of Article 96. Article 72 (Time for Election of Candidates) The election of candidates for president shall be made up to 120 days before the day of the presidential election. However, this is not the case when there is an accident with an elected presidential candidate. Article 73 (Preliminary Preliminary Candidate Registration System) ① From 240 days before the presidential election, a preliminary presidential candidate registration system will be operated for those who wish to run. ② Those registered as preliminary candidates for the presidential election are commissioned as permanent advisors and can attend various meetings and express their opinions on the general affairs of the party. ③ Other necessary matters, such as registration requirements for preliminary candidates for the presidential election, shall be determined by the Party Regulations. Article 74 (Status of Candidate) Presidential candidates shall take precedence over all powers over the party affairs to the extent necessary for the efficient promotion of electoral affairs from the date of election to the day of the presidential election. Article 74-2 (Special Cases concerning Election of Candidates for President) Notwithstanding the provisions of Chapter 5 (Election of Candidates for President), when there are significant reasons, matters concerning the election of candidates for president shall be deliberated by the Presidential Candidate Election Management Committee It is determined by the resolution of the committee (emergency countermeasure committee). However, a person who wishes to become a presidential candidate must withdraw from the party’s representative and top committee members (including the chairman of the emergency response committee and the emergency response committee) before the formation of the Presidential Candidate Election Management Committee.
In addition, the Democratic Party is a confrontation between CEO Nak-yeon Lee and Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong Yanggang. The two are strong candidates who have run or are running #1 in the next presidential candidate preference survey. It is expected that there will be several challengers, including former Minister Kim Bu-gyeom and Rep. Park Yong-jin, but it will not be easy to catch up with the two.
Lee Nak-yeon (69) Gwangju Il High School, Seoul National University Law School, Dong-A Ilbo Reporter, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21 National Assembly Member, Jeonnam Branch, Prime Minister Lee Jae-myeong (57) Examination, Chung-Ang University Law Department, Lawyer, Seongnam Mayor, Gyeonggi Branch
Governor Lee Jae-myung has begun to lead in the recent survey on the preferences of the next presidential candidate. However, in the support of the Democratic Party, Lee Nak-yeon still leads. Who will win? How do you know what’s going on in the next eight months? I think there is a high possibility that the final decision will result from the final presidential election, rather than the’Professional Jae-in’-‘Inscription Jae-in’ argument at the last minute. In addition, key supporters of the Democratic Party are well aware of what happens when the regime passes over to the opposition party. What will happen to the opposition candidates for the presidential election? For now, predictions are almost impossible. A completely different situation will unfold depending on the outcome of the Seoul Mayor’s by-election. Sensationally, the challenge of Rep. Hong Jun-pyo and former Rep. Seung-min Yoo is expected. The two were people who ran for the presidential election on May 9, 2017. In particular, Congressman Hong Joon-pyo ran for the 2006 Seoul Mayoral Candidate and the 2007 Presidential Candidate. He is a very motivated person to gain power. In Korea’s presidential election, there is something called the’law of luck and strength’. Starting from the in-party presidential nomination, President Kim Young-sam was elected president after three challenges and President Kim Dae-jung four times. President Park Geun-hye and President Moon Jae-in were also retakers of the presidential election. In the power of the people, Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong and former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon will also participate in the party competition. Is there a possibility that Kim Jong-in, Chairman of the People’s Power Emergency Response Committee, can run for president? I think there is. If the people’s power wins in the Seoul Mayor’s by-election, the space for Chairman Kim Jong-in will be wide open. We don’t know if he will play the role of’king maker’ to create the next president, or whether he will make the’last choice’ of himself as a presidential candidate. Politics is an area where there is no impossible.
Kim Jong-in, chairman of the People’s Strength Emergency Response Committee, speaks at the first meeting of the People’s Strength 4·7 Re-election Nomination Management Committee held at the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul on December 30 last year. yunhap news
What will Ahn Cheol-soo, the CEO of the National Assembly Party do? I believe that CEO Ahn Chul-soo has the potential to run for the presidential election in 2022, regardless of whether he succeeds or fails in the Seoul Mayor’s by-election. If you are elected as the mayor of Seoul, you will be the influential president of the opposition at that moment. If I fail, I will run for president. CEO Ahn Chul-soo once challenged the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections. Regardless of the odds, you won’t be able to endure it without running again. How about Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol, who will retire in July? Shall I run for president? It is common sense to assume that you will not run. When he jumps into politics, his actions against President Moon Jae-in and Justice Minister Chu Mi-ae have to be sorted out as a result of his political greed. However, reading Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol’s 2021 New Year’s remarks, it is difficult to conclude that he has no political greed. It is not appropriate for the Prosecutor General’s New Year’s address, and is concerned about’Corona 19′ and’the public economy’ and emphasizes that it should be a’public prosecutor’. There is no trace of the’reflection’ that President Moon Jae-in requested. He is a very scary person.
Hong Joon-pyo (67) Yeongnam High School, Department of Public Administration, Prosecutor, 15, 16, 17, 18, 21 National Assembly Member, House Representative, Representative, Gyeongnam Governor Yoo Seung-min (63) Gyeongbuk High School, Seoul National University Economics Department, Yeouido Research Institute Director, 17 18 19 19 20th National Assembly Member, House Representative, Barun Party Representative Hee-Ryong Won (57) Jeju First High School, Seoul National University Public Law Department, Prosecutor, Lawyer, 16-17-18 National Assembly Member, Jeju Governor Kim Jong-in (81) Joongang High School, Foreign University German Literature Department, 11·12·14· 17th and 20th National Assembly member, Minister of Security and Public Affairs, Chief of Economic Affairs, Blue House Yoon Seok-yeol (61) Chungam High School, Seoul National University Law Department, Prosecutor, Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office, Prosecutor General
Even if the Democratic Party and the People’s Power are elected presidential candidates in September and November of this year, the situation does not end at all. September-November, when the candidates for each party’s presidential election are decided, is probably just the beginning of the presidential election. There will be a new rivalry that has never been seen before. Korean politicians and party members have experience in creating new political parties either by pulling down candidates or leaving the group if they feel that the presidential candidate chosen by their own hands is likely to lose power and lose power. This was the case in the 1987 presidential election, the 1992 presidential election, the 1997 presidential election, the 2002 presidential election, the 2007 presidential election, the 2012 presidential election, and the 2017 presidential election. It will also be in the 2022 presidential election. I am saying that it is not over until the presidential election on March 9, 2022. Senior Reporter Seong Han-yong [email protected]