Photo = Yonhap NewsIn the re-election of the Mayor of Seoul on April 7, except for the National Assembly representative Ahn Cheol-soo, even if anyone in the opposition becomes a candidate, Park Young-seon and the Democratic Party candidate were defeated by a big difference. In addition, if Ahn came out as a single candidate for the opposition and confronted Park, an ultra-thin game was expected.
According to an opinion poll commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN to Hangil Research, Candidate Park fell behind in a one-on-one composition with Candidate Ahn only by a slight gap (0.1 percentage points), and 10 percentage points in confrontation with candidates Na Gyeong-won and Oh Se-hoon. The result was that it was ahead with a gap of over. In a survey assuming a bilateral composition between Park Young-sun and Ahn, Candidate Park received 39.3% and Ahn’s 39.4% approval ratings, respectively, showing ultra-thin performance.
In addition, when Candidate Park and Candidate Na face each other, Park’s approval rating is expected to reach 39.0% and Na’s 27.2%, and the confrontation ratio between Park and Candidate Oh is 39.5% and 27.0%, which is not significantly different. Came out. As the results of the early sales that the 1st opposition candidates for the People’s Power are greatly pushed out of the confrontation with Park, it is noteworthy how it will affect the unification of opposition in the future. Candidate Ahn, who is ahead of Candidate Park, is also within the margin of error with a 0.1 percentage point difference, so no one can predict the outcome. However, the possibility that the approval ratings between the ruling and opposition candidates will continue to fluctuate in the future cannot be ruled out, as there are nearly 50 days left until the by-election and political political variables are changing so rapidly.
Meanwhile, a poll poll for the mayoral election in Busan showed that candidate Park Hyung-jun greatly outpaced Democratic Party candidate Kim Young-chun. In the bilateral composition of Hyung-Jun Park and Young-Chun Kim, Candidate Park gained 40.8% approval ratings and Candidate Kim 28.2%, leading Candidate Park significantly ahead of Candidate Kim. However, if candidate Lee Eon-joo, who ranked second in the party’s fitness as a candidate for the power of the people, faces me and Kim, candidate Kim wins with 30.7% of candidates and 27.6% of candidate Lee. This poll was conducted in a wireless 100% automatic response method with virtual numbers provided by three telecommunications companies using a questionnaire for two days on the 15th to 16th of this month and targeted 807 people each in Seoul and Busan. At the 95% confidence level, the sample error is ±3.4% points. For other details, please refer to the website of the Central Election Public Opinion Review Committee.
[박인혜 기자 / 최예빈 기자]
Unification of Seoul Candidate Not expected effect 野… Real estate public sentiment is the largest variable
Maeil Economic Daily·MBN Seoul·Busan mayor re-election poll
Young-sun Park Stable support near 40%
“If you can’t get the house price, your passport ticket will be lost”
The only candidate for 野 ahead of 朴 is 安
It seems to be variable in the unification negotiations in March
Opposition unification candidate approval rate
The approval ratings for 安, 羅, and 吳 were not met
Under the banner of the `political judgment`, the opposition party is pushing for a single candidate run for the 4/7 mayoral by-election of the Mayor of Seoul, but the result of a one-on-one confrontation with the ruling party candidate in the final round cannot guarantee victory. If unification fails and the opposition is divided, it is expected to be pushed into a large gap. As former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun is regarded as a prominent candidate for the ruling party, some point out that a special strategy is needed to overcome the barrier of passport support.
In a public opinion poll conducted on February 15th to 16th and published on the 18th, commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN to Hangil Research, in a bilateral structure, Candidate Park steadily gained nearly 40% of the approval rating against any candidate. No matter who the two candidates for the strength of the people, Na Kyung-won and Oh Se-hoon, they won with a gap of more than 10 percentage points. However, Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly, recorded a higher approval rating than Park candidate, although it was a very slight difference.
This is the result of deepening concerns over the power of the people, the first opposition party. First, the problem is that the gap between the party composition and the actual election composition is large. When asked,’Who do you think is the most suitable candidate for the Mayor of Seoul?’, Candidate Na earned a 25.1% approval rating, far ahead of Candidate Oh (19.0%) in second place, but when he faced Park Candidate in the finals, Candidate Na The approval ratings of Candidate and Oh were 27.2% and 27.0%, respectively. It is said that there is a gap between `Dangsim` and `People`s mind.
In the case of Ahn, it was found that he was the only opposition candidate ahead of Park, but the fact that the gap is’ultra-thin’ is a factor of concern. In this election, the election day is not a holiday, but the turnout is inevitably low. If that happens, the Democratic Party, which controls the Seoul city’s organization, will be absolutely advantageous. Candidate Ahn’s side drew a line saying “there is no participation by the people before the by-election,” so even if Ahn becomes a single candidate for the opposition, he must run with the’sign number 4′.
Another weakness of the opposition candidates who ran for the mayor of Seoul this time is the poor base of the party. According to the results of an opinion poll commissioned by Maeil Economic Daily and MBN to Hangil Research, assuming a bilateral structure between Park and opposition candidates (Na Kyung-won, Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Chul-soo), more than 80% of those who responded that they supported the Democratic Party in any case I sent my support to candidate Park. The situation was different for the opposition candidates.
Among those who said they supported the power of the people, 62.6% said they supported Candidate Na, 61.7% of Ahn and 54.4% of Oh. Although it is an opposition that dreams of’unification’, it is a great point to analyze that even the hearts of supporters have not been properly collected.
In the case of going to a three-way structure, the chances of winning the opposition were even lower. Park Young-seon, Na Gyeong-won, and Ahn Chul-soo won 37.8%, Na 20.8%, Ahn 27.9%, and Park Young-sun, Oh Se-hoon and Ahn Chul-soo also won 39.3% Park, 16.1% Oh, and Park’s dominance was predicted by Ahn’s 31.3%. The power of the people combined with candidate Ahn’s approval ratings overwhelmed Park, but the unification resulted in less than the sum of the approval ratings between the two candidates.
However, there are some people who raise doubts about whether candidate Park’s image of a ‘warrior’ in the past will be effective even in the finals, as he held elections based on policy rather than political battles. Yoon Tae-gon, head of The Moa’s Political Analysis Office, explained, “Since Park has no opponent in the preliminary round, he was able to avoid political offensive and political strife, but it cannot be done in the final.
The real estate policy and other variables that affect this election are also noted. In regards to the 2·4 real estate policy announced by the government recently, negative public opinion (56.7%) overwhelms positive public opinion (26.1%). ) This is because’real estate policy’ (25.6%) was the next pick. Yoon analyzed that “March and April are Lee, and if the February 4 real estate policy is not effective, the voice of the government judge may be loud.”
For other details related to public opinion polls, refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Committee.
[박인혜 기자 / 최예빈 기자]
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