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In the approval rating of the 4/7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election, it was found that candidate Oh Se-hoon outperformed Park Young-sun and Democratic Party candidates by more than 15 percentage points. Candidate Oh surpassed Candidate Park by more than two times in the middle class as well as the conservatives. As for the next year’s presidential election, former prosecutor general Yoon Seok-yeol maintained the first place in preference within the margin of error, thanks to the support of the’replacement of power’ by the majority of the people.
According to a poll conducted by the Mayor of Seoul on the 26th and 27th by the Korea Economic Daily, a public opinion poll specialist, Ipsos, Oh won the support of 50.5%, ahead of Park (34.8%). Candidate Oh overpowered Park (13.4%) with 78.6% in the conservative class, and 56.2% in the middle class also beat Candidate Park (27.0%) with a’double score’. Only in the progressives, Park candidate (60.6%) outperformed Oh (24.3%). When asked about the possibility of winning, Candidate Oh received a 56.8% response, surpassing Candidate Park (26.3%) by more than 30 percentage points. However, Ipsos Social Research Headquarters Director Seo Gang-shin said, “28.1% of the respondents said that they have not yet decided on the candidates to be voted for at the actual polling place. Their direction will act as a variable in the election.”
In the presidential election poll conducted during the same period, Former President Yoon and Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myeong formed the Yanggang structure. With 26.8% of the support, President Yoon Jeon, surpassed Governor Lee (25.6%) within the margin of error, and ranked first. Lee Nak-yeon, together with the Democratic Party Standing Election Committee Chairman, ranked third with 14.6%, followed by Ahn Cheol-soo, a new candidate for the survey after being excluded from the Seoul Mayor’s Candidate, with 6.9%.
In relation to the next presidential election, it was found that the’regime replacement theory’ precedes the’regime re-creation theory’. 50.1% said that the government should be replaced, and 43.8% said that the government should be recreated.
‘Real estate policy’ (44.0%) was ranked first as the government policy that the next government should change first. It was followed by’prosecution reform’ (12.4%),’income-led growth’ (10.0%), and’diplomatic security against North Korea’ (9.0%).
The survey was conducted through direct telephone interviews (10.1% wired, 89.9% wireless) of investigators rather than an automatic response system (ARS) for two days on the 26th to 27th. The Seoul Mayor’s by-election poll was answered by 800 men and women aged 18 years or older residing in Seoul. The response rate is 21.5% and the sample error is ±3.5% with a 95% confidence level. The presidential election poll received responses from 1001 men and women over the age of 18 nationwide. The response rate is 13.3% and the sample error is ±3.1% with a 95% confidence level. For more information, please refer to the website of the Central Election Survey and Deliberation Committee.
Reporter Dowon Lim [email protected]
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