Non-participation of the North Tokyo Olympics … the Wen government’s expectations for the’second Pyeongchang’

North Korea announced that it would not attend the Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Japan in July. With the Tokyo Olympics, the Moon Jae-in administration’s’Tokyo Initiative’, which attempted to secure momentum for the peace process on the Korean peninsula at the end of his term of office, by using the spark of dialogue between the two Koreas and North America, was virtually in vain. The plan to prepare a breakthrough in the stalemate between Korea-Japan relations by intermediary between the North Korean and Japanese dialogues was also disrupted.

Decision to abstain from belated disclosure… What is North Korea’s intention?

On the 6th, the North Korean Ministry of Sports said, “The Korean Olympic Committee attended the 32nd Olympic Games at the general meeting held on the 25th of last month in order to protect athletes from the global health crisis caused by a viral infection (Corona 19). I decided not to participate,” he said. Even after deciding to absent on the 25th of last month, the related facts were posted on the homepage more than ten days later.

The reason North Korea, which claims to be a’clean country of Corona 19′, on the surface, is’protection of players’. However, there are many interpretations that there are not a few political intentions in mind, such as inter-Korean and US-North Korea relations. North Korea’s declaration of absence can be read as a message saying,’Because we are not interested in the dialogue that took place during the Tokyo Olympics, we should withdraw from the US policy of hostile dashes toward North Korea.’

This can be seen as an extension of the talks of Labor Party Vice President Kim Yeo-jeong, who criticized President Moon as a “American parrot,” following the launch of the first ballistic missile after the inauguration of the U.S. administration on the 25th of last month. There is no reason for North Korea to declare absence from the time of more than three months before the opening of the Olympics.

‘Silence’, embarrassed by confusion

The Korean government, which attempted to recreate the ‘2nd PyeongChang Olympics’ by pulling North Korea’s participation, was in an embarrassing situation. The Blue House has repeatedly revealed its intention to fuel the peace process on the Korean Peninsula through the Tokyo Olympics, based on the experience of concluding three inter-Korean summits and two US-North Korea summits with North Korea’s participation in the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. President Moon said in his March 1 commemorative address, “The Tokyo Olympics could be an opportunity for dialogue between Korea and Japan, between South and North Korea, between North Korea and Japan, and between North America.” For the current government with more than a year in office, the Tokyo Olympics, in which the South, North Korea, the United States, and Japan gather together, were the biggest event and the last opportunity to advance the North Korean nuclear issue within a multilateral framework.

It is pointed out that unlike the government, neighboring countries did not put much expectations on the Tokyo Olympics. At last month’s diplomatic and security ministers’ meeting (2+2) and the recent US-Korea security office meeting in the United States, the North Korean issue was the main agenda, but the Tokyo Olympics were not dealt with deeply. Unlike before the PyeongChang Olympics, North Korea has an environment in which it can enter into bilateral negotiations with the United States.

At the Blue House, it seems inevitable to modify the strategy. The fact that the Blue House did not make a separate position on this day is a testament to these concerns. However, the Ministry of Unification said, “We hoped that the Tokyo Olympics would serve as an opportunity to advance peace on the Korean peninsula and reconciliation and cooperation between the two Koreas, but we are disappointed that this was not possible due to the Corona 19 situation.” I will continue to try to find an opportunity.”

The perspective of North Korea’s’last-minute overturn’

The problem is that the Korean government, which tried to mediate US-US relations, does not have a card deserving to reverse the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Following the’Hanoi No Deal’ in February 2019, inter-Korean relations have been stalemate due to the bombing of the South-North Joint Liaison Office in June of last year. There are also observations that the Beijing Winter Olympics in China in February next year will be another opportunity for the defeat of the’Tokyo Initiative’, but the limitation is that it is three months before the end of President Moon’s term of office (May 2022). Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, said, “At the moment, it seems best to seek cooperation from China to prevent tensions on the Korean peninsula from rising or to reduce the difference in position between the ROK and the United States in North Korea policy.”

However, the possibility of a last-minute overturn depending on the political situation is also discussed, as North Korea has revealed its decision to absent from the Olympics through the website of the Ministry of Sports and Sports. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded on this day, saying, “As the Olympics are a festival of world peace, there is time left and we look forward to North Korea’s participation.”

Seungim Jeong reporter [email protected]

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